We are starting to hit the period of time when the stimulus package is going to start having a bigger impact. Whether the stimulus was properly targeted or implemented speedily enough, there will be many projects kicking off now that will show some improvement in employment.
Also, with GM and Chrysler out of bankruptcy and some increased demand in the auto sector, we can expect to see a small bounce as the auto companies and their suppliers start working on the fall lines.
Also, as many of the companies have cut to the bone in order to preserve profits, I would think that the production for the Christmas season has to create some jobs in manufacturing as well.
We also see a bit of a rush to get houses started so they qualify for Government credits and we should see a small uptick in construction employment.
All of this indicates that we are either at the top or very near the top of our unemployment curve.
Now many analysts are predicting unemployment to continue to grow into early next year, and if retailer's overstock for Christmas we may have a subsequent problem, but assuming they gear u for a modest but profitable season we should start to see the stability in employment that we need to renew GDP growth.
Housing is a tougher problem, but I do think that a larger number of people who have moved in with parents and/or relatives and have been saving, will with an improved employment outlook, use that savings to invest in some of the most affordable housing they will probably see in their lifetimes.
Starting to smell more and more like recovery.
No comments:
Post a Comment