Monday, August 31, 2009

Normal?

In some ways, the economic crisis is a crisis no longer. Business analysts still discuss it and there are still news articles about it, but in most parts of the country the crisis has simply morphed into a bad recession. In fact, as time goes by and the actual statistics get compared to other recessions, the claim that this has been the worst since the Great Depression may or may not hold up.

As in all recessions, the underlying fundamentals of the economy need to find the appropriate level to regain stability and start to grow again. The growth we had in 2005-2007 was based on unsound fundamentals, driven largely by inflated real estate prices. Correcting that has been painful, but the worst part of that correction is over and generally we should start to see some more appropriate valuations in that market.

At some point, the fact that houses get foreclosed on, businesses fail and people lose jobs, is part of every economy. What is the normal numbers we should see? Our perception on that changes over time, but the level of unemployment we have now will not destroy the country, it has been at and above these levels before.

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