As we head into the fall we are starting to see some glimmers that the recovery will continue, or perhaps better to say that the economy will continue to grow weakly from its new baseline. The dramatic events of 2008-2009 were really like the earthquake that causes devastation but is really the release of all the pent up energy built up in the tectonic plates in the preceding period.
The country had a large number of negative long term factors that were masked by the apparent increase in housing prices which allowed much of the population to spend well above their means and create an aura of prosperity when really it was more like play money.
We simply have too many Americans who are not equipped for the world we live in, who expect to maintain a standard of living that they can't earn in the world marketplace and a technological revolution that is exposing these facts.
Most of the problems were probably inevitable, but the deregulation and free trade groups (things that are good for big business but not so good for the undertrained/overpaid American worker) sped them along. In addition, we accelerated the stress by enacting unaffordable tax breaks that quickly turned a surplus into a deficit and proceeded to fight an unnecessary war in Iraq that cost billions and billions of dollars while achieving little. The war against the terrorist camps in Afghanistan was necessary but the one in Iraq was simply an ego trip by our late President.
So we have too many houses and too many unemployed Americans. The jobs that many of these unemployed performed are gone and not coming back. Generally the jobs they might be qualified for will pay much less than they used to make and they have lost the houses, or at least the equity, that financed their lifestyles.
The contraction of 2008-2009 was not a temporary thing, like some of the recessions in the past, with a bounce back recovery. The new baseline is what it is and growth is going to be slow unless we take some actions to help the root cause of our issues.
We need to create jobs by exploiting our national energy resources, meaning gas, coal and renewable to improve our balance of payments and reduce our trade deficit.
We need to encourage conversion of homes and businesses to be more energy efficient increasing construction jobs for the renovation.
We need to fix our infrastructure creating jobs.
We need to switch to a tax on sales and reduce taxes that encourage job exportation.
We need to fix the way we fund health care and join the rest of the civilized world.
We should be encouraging immigration to increase the number of young workers willing to start at the bottom and achieve the American dream.
We need to make sure our schools are imparting the skills our young people need for the future, not the skills of the past.
Government spending must be brought in line with Government income, and this might be painful but the choice has to be made to reduce services or increase taxes (possibly some of both).
We need to get started and the politicians need to put the interests of the country ahead of their own.
Its time.
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