The Future

One of the things that it is nice to speculate about is the world of tomorrow. Over the years there have been many predictions about the future that ranged from flying cars to a society where roots did all the hard work and people had lots of free time.


Of course there have also been visions where the future is bleak ranging from nuclear Armageddon to fascist/communist dictatorships, to world where the machines have taken over (i.e. the Matrix or the Terminator series).


Based on experience any predictions are most likely to be wrong. They may have some validity but the basic problem is usually the fact that looking at the past does not take into account that humanity can and often does alter its behavior.


Consider global warming. Assume that the increased use of carbon based fuels does create a greenhouse effect. One or two years ago, the use of oil and gasoline was predicted to skyrocket. well in the short term the global recession had an impact on usage and it seems probable that we will continue to utilize more and more alternate sources for energy, whether solar or wind or hydro. Further, increased levels of carbon dioxide will promote additional plant growth that will capture at least some of it. Now, none of this needs to be a 100% solution, if everybody used one less gallon of oil it would have a dramatic impact.


Does this mean global warming is not a problem? No, simply that it will not end up being the "worst case" because behavior will change. The degree of change is going to be driven by many factors but it will change. If you look at the use of solar power in Germany, you can see a decent example of possibilities in a country with a fairly inhospitable climate.


The future will be created by the actions of all of us over time. People make individual decisions based upon what they think is best for them. These individual decisions will change as situations change. Ultimately the future will be created by all of us.