Bear rally, Bull correction?

If you look at the S&P 500 over the last 50 years, there is a interesting comparison between the period starting in 1969 to the period starting in 2000. In 1969 we reached a record high of 108.37 only to collapse to 72.25 in 1970-1971. We then achieved a new record high in 1973 of 119.87 only to colapse even lower to 62.34. This second drop erased about 10 years worth of stock market gains. The S&P then climbed to around 100, around a 66% gain where it stagnated for about 6 years.
In 2000 we reached a record high of 1527.46 only to fall to the 800 level by 2002. We then climbed to another record high of 1560 in 2007 only to fall to about 670 in 2009. We are now climbing up from that number.

So, in the first period we had record high followed by a 33% drop followed by a record high and then a 47% decline in the early 1970s with a rally that regained 2/3rds of the drop before stalling. In the recent period weh had a 47 % decline followed by a 57% decline in the 2000-2009 time frame. We are now up about 40% from the lows so it may auger that we still have some upside on this rally.

In the 1970s the period following the final rally to near 100 was when we had stagflation, a slow growth economy but because the money supply had been increased so much significant inflation.

So, what does this say about the current rally? It of course doesn't necessarily mean anything, but if you like charts and think they tend to repeat themselves, it may mean the current rally still has a ways to go before it stalls. If you were to use it to predict, it would indicate we may end up at about 1200 on the S&P followed by years pivoting around that level.

One thing that seems fairly certain is that wint all the extra stimulus money, the market won't retest the lows, but growth may be slow, real estate prices may stay low but we may still have some significant inflation as prices strive to achieve equilibrium with the money supply. In that scenario, while we will have price increases as raw materials increase, the buying power of the consumer will not grow as fast.

The prior period of stagflation continued until inflation caught prices up to the money supply. Since growth remained slow, the Government continued with some stimulus efforts but growth simply did not get robust until we had re-established an equilibrium between the money supply and prices. Once this happened we had two of the greatest bull rallies ever.

So, would the similarities indicate that we are going to repeat the second half of the 70s? I would hesitate to predict that, but we do seem to have some eerie similarities.