Friday, June 19, 2009

Recession limits

If you think about the economy, we seem to have gotten past the panic level. There was a time when there was significant uncertainty related to whether the economy was going to enter a new depression and we would recreate the 1930s. Most people do not think this is true anymore, although of course there are those who believe the recent improvements are not real and that we should expect another downturn.

It should be noted that while our unemployment rate has grown, there are factors in the current economy that simply did not exist in the 1930s. First, the society back then was much more dependant on immediate earnings. There were no unemployment benefits or social security and even private pensions were relatively rare. So when we see an increase in unemployment, the buying power of that individual does not go to zero, or only what they have saved, but is going to be supplemented by unemployment insurance as well as other forms of assistance available.

Our population has been aging and living longer. Yes, many of the retired individuals lost income due to reduction in asset valuation, but those living on traditional pensions, annuities or just making do with social security had no real reduction. This is nothing like the situation that existed in the 1930s.

In the 1930s, there was effectively no public safety net. If the breadwinner lost their job, well that was the end of bread for awhile. Millions of people were forced to eke out survival by any means possible, relying to some extent on charity but certainly not collecting unemployment, disability or other public assistance.

Yes, there was a tremendous loss of wealth in this country as real estate returned to levels from the early part of this century, but even those people who lost their homes and their jobs, they are not as bad off as they would have been during the depression.

This is simply no longer an all or nothing economy.

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