Avoiding a Second Wave

It seems like we are soon going to see the end of most Covid 19 restrictions.  Wearing masks, washing hands, avoiding crowds is likely to stay with us and depending on how bad the second wave is might last quite a while.

There is some discussion of whether there will or will not be a second wave.  Considering human nature and our previous experiences, I believe we will have one, but we don't have to.

Some will follow all the proper measures and others won't and since the numbers indicate that most people have no immunity, the cases will rise, maybe not as dramatically but maybe in a more widespread manner.  

Infectious diseases spread steadily and insidiously throughout the population.  Since many people can carry the infection without exhibiting symptoms, it is certainly spreading to certain areas as we speak.  Its biggest targets of opportunity were our urban centers and that wave has mostly happened.  Not completely over but in some retreat.

Our greatest hope would be that many more people were infected than we know and that infection grants immunity.  Since exposure to the disease would have generated antibodies that will activate quickly upon a new exposure, some immunity is almost certain.  Immunity though is about getting sick from the virus.  If you are carrying it but defeating it, you may still spread it.

When it was at its peak it didn't cause symptoms in a lot of infected.  I've seen estimates that up to 80% of infected people had no symptoms.  Generally it had the worst impact upon people with other health issues who often were elderly.

So the infections will spread but the number of victims (people who get sick and die) is uncertain.  It may also be worse in the fall like cold and flu generally is.

Some things are only know when they are known.  Predictions can be useful but they are estimates and estimates can be wrong.  

Its not a political thing, its a virus thing so taking precautions is for everybody.

Death Securities

Article in the New York Times today talked about how bankers are starting to put together investment packages where cashed in life insurance bundles are securitized. Ultimately the rate of return for these is dependant on whether the insured live longer or die earlier than expected. The one thing for sure, is that death does not ever end in foreclosure, so to speak, so these securities will never collapse the way sub prime mortgages did.

In some ways it is a good thing for elderly holders of these policies, since there will be a market that will let them cash in for more than what the surrender value would be. It will end up costing Insurance Companies more, since part of their rates is based on a certain number of these policies lapsing before the death of the insured.

I guess, if the policies have double indemnity clauses for accidental deaths, there could be some windfall gains. Makes you wonder if the proliferation of these securities would influence bankers to support public health care? Also, if you buy a lot of these and people start living longer, you could be tempted to ....

Well, bankers and investors aren't quite at that level yet, at least I hope not.