Economic domiance

The United States emerged as the dominant economic power in the world by the end of the 20th century. This was not the case at the end of the 19th since England and Germany were at that time dominant economies. Of course, if you looked at the United States in 1899, it was up and coming and clearly had the potential to become what it did. Of course the fact that Europe went through two devastating wars and the colonies achieved Independence had a lot to do with the emergence, or at least the speed of it, but the United States clearly had much greater potential than England or Germany without colonies.

So the question is, looking forward from 1999 to 2100, will the next dominant economic power be China? The main resource that China possesses in excess is the number of people who live there. Of course, China is a large country with approximately as much land as the United States excluding Alaska, but more of China is inhospitable than is the U.S. as the entire western part of it is mostly arid. Now, those areas may contain tremendous natural resources to be exploited, but in general, the United States seems to have more natural resources than China does.

So will China's large population bring it economic dominance? There is one thing that is certain. Since China has 4 times as many people as the United States, the size of its economy will eventually surpass that of the United States through the normal course of events. China has been growing and creating wealth for its population. As the consumer culture expands in China there will be tremendous opportunities considering the size of the population.

However, does China have the wherewithal to support a standard of living for its population similar to that enjoyed by the West? Well, ultimately, yes and when that happens the economy will be dominant. Of course, India is moving in the same direction and perhaps faster.

So sometime during this century the Asian powers will emerge as the two largest economies. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if American companies and workers can exploit this growth by exporting products there.