Predicting the future

In every time of crisis, some adapt and end up being successful and other fail to adapt and fail. The ones who adapt are finding opportunities and working to be successful while the ones that don't adapt complain about how everything is stacked against them.

The opportunities being created by the ones who are adapting the best clearly are in areas that are not clear to most of us. The changes that will come will be significant. Predicting these changes is difficult and like everything else they are dependant upon circumstances that may or may not already exist.

If you simply look at problems facing the United States and the World, you may get a feel for the areas where these innovators will make the biggest contributions. However, some of the changes will be in areas that are not even perceived as current problems. For example, twenty years ago I believe most people would have felt the telephone system that existed was quite adequate. However, now most people can't manage without their cell phones. This is an entire industry that was created without a perceived need for it. You can say it created the demand that it then satisfied.

In fact, most of the most successful innovations and growth industries are not in response to a problem that existed, but a brand new opportunity that we would have had problem imagining at one time. In many of our traditional businesses, the improvements have been significant but not revolutionary. In other industries, the new developments have created significant challenges that they are struggling to overcome. Think about network TV, newspapers, land line phones companies, etc.

So when I hear prognosticators talk about the downfall of the economy and the collapse of our society I have to wonder if they are taking into account the fact that so much is simply unpredictable? I don't think they are and I guess I simply have more faith in the entrepreneurial and innovative spirit that humanity has.