Sunday, October 18, 2009

Half filled glass

When you consider data the old stumper about whether a glass is half empty or half full comes to mind. Of course, the answer to the stumper is that it depends on whether you are filling it up or drinking it. Data in a vacuum only provides you with a point in time. It is the trend that matters.

So when you see that foreclosures are still near record levels, the key point is are they getting worse or are they getting better? Similarly for unemployment, are more people losing their jobs or less people? You can go on and on with this, but in almost every category, the numbers while still not "good" are "better" than they were.

So, going back to the glass analogy, the glass which was being emptied for much of 2008 and early 2009 has now started to be refilled. It may not even be at the halfway level yet, but the level is rising.

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