New Year

Well the last day of another year and at least to those following the western calendar the chance to end some things and start new things tomorrow.

Of course in nature while it is related to the winter solstice and therefore the promise of spring the date is just another one in the series.

Still it is as good a time as any to reflect on what is good, what is bad and what needs to change.

Of course many will immediately think about the current administration but changes there will be decided by either the impeachment or the voters.

So what sort of resolutions do we need?

Well most of us and most of the world are aware that we face a potential catastrophe in our impact upon climate.  The few that deny this seem motivated by greed with the only rationale usually offered is that if we take the actions needed it will hurt our industry. 

It might and it might not.  We may very well lead the way to a better more efficient way to power the modern and future world.  To get there we have to move forward and create it. 

We also have the opportunity to embrace a new world of understanding for all people.  Too many want to enforce their own beliefs on others.  This type of bigotry is something that needs to be relegated to the past.

In addition to accepting people we need to assure everyone has access to the health care he or she needs.  Ideally we can progress towards a future that provides for the safety and security of all.

If that is not our goal, then what is?

Employment

Talk of the economy tends to focus on two areas, unemployment and the stock market.  The stock market has done well as corporate profits have based on current economic policies.  In addition each month we are reminded of how the unemployment numbers are near record lows.  The problem is that those statistics, while accurate are a bit misleading for many of us.  The chart below reflects workforce participation in the labor market.  As you can see following the great recession it dropped significantly This drop means millions of Americans are no longer looking for work, so they are not unemployed, but they aren't working.

This very well may reflect the impact of the boomers leaving the workplace, or it might reflect the jobs we have lost.

Wages have also been largely stagnant over this period, not completely but not rising as much as they would if the jobs of today were the same as the jobs of the past.

If machinist jobs paying $30 an hour are eliminated and filled by robots but a low paying service job is created paying minimum wage, we see employment numbers unchanged but wages decreasing.

So are people  better off than they were?  Not as much as they should be, if at all.

Tactics

I've lived through three presidential events, two impeachments and one resignation and while certainly each is unique what we are seeing is something new in this one.

With Nixon you had an unfolding of evidence where both sides were determined to find out the truth.  Certainly he had supporters, less over time but they acted like a tribunal in search of the truth.

It seemed likely that as dramatic development unfurled he was going to be both impeached and convicted and seeing the handwriting on the wall he resigned.

With Clinton, the act he was accused of was lying about an encounter with a young intern.  Once it was proven the encounter had happened and he apologized the crime he was accused of was effectively perjury under oath.  He was clearly guilty but he was not removed from office, partly because while a serious matter it was more of a personal issue where he lied about infidelity.  It didn't really have much to do with the National Interest.

Now in the current one we see charges of attempting to use national resources to further personal interests and then obstructing the investigation.  What seems different this time is that instead of trying to determine if the events happened, it is likely they did, his supporters  are on the attack, politicizing the process while accusing the opposition of being political.

Now we know the phone call happened and we know that witnesses and documents are being withheld.  The American public would like to see these documents and hear these witnesses, so the question becomes, was there enough evidence already for the House?

There was and if in fact there is evidence that the motivation was indeed perfect, one would think the Senate supporters would roll out the documents and witnesses to refute the accusations.

They aren't going to do that, they will simply acquit based on political reasons.

They think the American public will agree and some will.

I don't think it is enough for those who aren't already rabid supporters.  We will see.

Young People

Its easy as you age to criticize the younger generation.  After all, they generally don't listen to your advice and insist on doing the same stupid things you did when you were younger.

Of course this isn't universally true, but more true than not.

Some things have to be experienced to be learned.

If you touch hot things you will get burnt is a fairly universal example.

A lot of people like to act like the current generation of young people is the worst one yet.

It isn't, they are ultimately the same as all previous generations.

People respond to their surroundings, its why we have been so successful.

They may have a lot to learn, but didn't we all?

What I believe is inevitable is that as time passes they will become exactly what they need to be   The world is a bit different for them but they will manage to survive it.

Eventually they will have a younger generation to complain about.

The stupidest one ever.

Taxes

Think about taxes.

They are the amount you pay the Government in exchange for certain services.

The biggest items we pay for are National Defense, various entitlement program, and the Interest on the National Debt.

It might be better to say we pay for Military services since most of it has a very tenuous line to actual defense of this country.

In fact its fairly safe to say that with our Nuclear Arsenal, it is unlikely that anyone would overtly attack us.

Before World War 2 we tended to keep a fairly small active army when we weren't actually at war.

Following that war, we perceived a need to counter the threat of worldwide communist expansion and defend our European Allies via NATO.

The chart below shows the last 100 years of spending and we see the increase of WW1 followed by a decrease and the increase of WW2 followed by a decrease.  However the post war amounts dwarf the prewar amounts and have continued.

What have we gotten for this spending?  Well the country has not been invaded but we have thousands of dead young people because of Korea, Vietnam and the War on Terror.

The question is, what do we gain by all this spending?  Consider how much less the National Debt would be if we curtailed it a bit?

Do the Right Thing

Besides being the name of a Spike Lee movie it is also, at its nature a reasonable basis on which to live your life.

There may be a question at times of what the right thing is, but for the most part in individual actions it isn't.

Problematically though the people doing what is clearly the wrong thing are simply enforcing some rules or following some orders.

Still, seeing children separated from their parents based on some immigration law interpretation is hard to justify as the right thing.

Using things that make climate change worse when there are viable alternatives is not the right thing.

Accepting wrongdoing in any person because he promises you some benefit is not the right thing.

After all isn't that the same logic a bank robber would use?

Holidays

I hope everyone is having a healthy and happy holiday, whatever holiday you are celebrating.  Even if you are not celebrating one, be healthy and happy.

Its better than the alternatives.