Predictions

Given enough information and time most of us can make reasonable predictions. If you consider housing and look out five years from now, most people would think that prices will be up above current levels (certainly there are some doomsayers who expect us to be living in caves and practicing cannibalism but let’s hope they are wrong). So If you have enough money and enough time, you should be buying real estate. The problem is, that even if that prediction is correct, will it be universally correct? There has been ongoing slumps in certain areas of this country (thanks to Michael Moore Flint, MI jumps to mind) even when the economy elsewhere was booming. So a specific investment carries much more risk than an investment in real estate in general.
I’m not trying to tout Real Estate or anything else, but the point I’m trying to make is that general trends are easy to predict while specifics aren’t. Is the US economy going to recover? I think there isn’t much doubt that the answer is yes. When is it going to recover? Well it may have already started but a prediction that specific carries a lot of uncertainty with it. However with the upturn in Consumer Confidence and the distribution of stimulus checks and tax refunds going on now, I suspect we will see growth in spending. If there is enough consumer spending, inventories will need to be replenished and jobs will be created. Certainly has a promising sound to it.