Megalomaniacs In Charge

During a war it is expected that some people will die to hopefully further the cause for the rest.  Senseless deaths should obviously be avoided since they weaken your side and help the enemy.  While the analogy of a war against the Corona Virus is just a metaphor it stands up in a number of ways.  The administration is willing to trade lives to start the economy because that would constitute a victory to them.

First you have to know what constitutes victory.  I think generally that is pretty obvious, we have effective prevention or treatment options that reduce the risk to acceptable levels and restart the economy.

Of course if you have a megalomaniac who defines victory as how to maximize his own agenda as opposed to the general good we see the result.

Considering the economic power lined up against him, defeat was probably inevitable for Hitler in WW2.  However he made a number of decisions based on his own vision which helped nail down the outcome.  His decisions, especially on the Eastern Front in 1943 and 1944 led to some catastrophic losses of men and material that were becoming irreplaceable.

Would it have led to victory?  Seems unlikely based on the economics but his only real chance by that time was to drag the war on long enough that he could negotiate some sort of armistice.

In fact, invading the Soviet Union in June 1941 and then declaring war on the United States after Pearl Harbor were both individually bad moves but taken together a recipe for his ultimate destruction.

How does that equate to today?  Well the next election is getting close and the current bad news as well as the rantings America got to see everyday at the briefings are not boding well for our current megalomaniac.  He needs to get a victory and restore what was his main chance of victory, the economy.

He already has a guaranteed base of various causes like anti-abortion and others who ignore his other qualities for a single issue. 

That is simply not enough to win so he needs to win those voters in certain swing states who voted for him last time, primarily because they disliked Hillary.

They don't feel the same way about Joe Biden and that's a big problem.

He really hadn't done much for them in all honesty but that's an oddity in this country.  Good news about the economy, even if you aren't really seeing it, tends to help the administration.

So coal miners, ex factory workers, and others who have been hurt by economic changes felt more positive about things, even if the factories and mines were still mostly shut down and promises weren't kept.  

With bad economic numbers, they start to realize they aren't getting the promised results and no one else is either.

Except of course the wealthy business owners.

Economy

As we go into tax season, Americans are forced to pay attention to how they did year over year.  In some cases all the care about is how big is their refund and when are they getting it.  Still it at least makes you notice the numbers on you W-2.

This is where the rubber meets the road, so to speak.  For various reasons most working Americans should see a year over year increase in gross pay.  The current administration would like to take credit for that and if you are in certain categories maybe they should.  Of course gross pay isn't the best indicator, but its at least a easy to identify one.

IN many states any increase might be attributed to an increase in the minimum wage, not something done by the Federal Government  Twenty states increased minimum wage in 2019 and that has a significant impact on income growth.

The other issue is that much of the income growth is going to be consumed by higher deductibles and co-pays on health care.  Companies have been reducing cost by transferring costs to the employees.

Still the economy is doing well enough that many companies did give out raises.  Some more than others.  The real question is do they make a difference for most?

Economics uses averages but people live in singularity.  How many families feel significantly better off under this administration.  Certainly the people who have significant investments have done well and property values are doing OK, so the answer is, like always, it depends.

However, the people who were struggling before the last election are still struggling.  Manufacturing is pretty stagnant, tariffs hurt many and wage increase hardly offset increase expenses.

One of the things that happens in economics is that you measure by period.  So 2019 is compared to 2018, etc.  So things like the great recession of 2008-2009 get cooked in.  

I don't know if there has been a significant economic boom in the average person's income.  It doesn't seem like it, the main beneficiaries are those already doing well.

Free Cookies

One of the things people say is that Trumps agenda is in trouble.

The first problem with that is that his agenda is about the vaguest thing I've ever seen.

I guess it could be summarized as repeal Obamacare and replace it with something great, cut taxes but spend more on the military and infrastructure, get rid of regulations that hinder business but protect workers and the environment and negotiate better trade deals and stop undocumented immigrants by building a wall on our southern border.

I might be missing something, especially any details as to how any of this is supposed to work.

Now we know the first one is in serious trouble because you can't gut the current law and create something great magically.

Now he may be able to give his buddies a tax break and may even be able to spend money, but its not going to help the deficit, which I left out of the above even though he says he will wipe it out.  He has experience in wiping out his business deficits by declaring bankruptcy so he may be surprised that he can't do that.

The regulations he is gutting protect workers and the environment and address climate change which he doesn't believe in.  Of course saving business some money is supposed to help them prosper and hire more people but of course the hiring part is a supply and demand thing and I very much doubt we are going to see significant reduced prices because of these actions, just more injuries and asthma.

Oddly he thinks mercury in vaccines is bad but releasing it into the air is just fine.

So far he backed out of the pacific deal which opened up a lot of trading opportunities for China.  He is trying to update NAFTA so I'll see how that goes, but from what I've read he threw our a list of demands which no one thinks is close to possible and which might actually be counter productive.  However, lets see what happens.

While there has been a decrease in people apprehended while crossing the southern border, it might have a number of causes, the data is inconclusive.  Under the prior administration there were a fairly large number of people who effectively turned themselves in when they got across because they wanted to pursue refugee status.  I suspect this is way down.  Whether the ones who didn't want to be caught before has decreased significantly is something no one really knows.

Now this agenda is supposed to make America great again.  That was never clearly defined, like someone running for school president who promises free cookies in the cafeteria.  Of course the free cookies don't materialize because the student has to deal with the adults who run the school.

Lesson learned maybe?