Monday, January 27, 2020

Economy

As we go into tax season, Americans are forced to pay attention to how they did year over year.  In some cases all the care about is how big is their refund and when are they getting it.  Still it at least makes you notice the numbers on you W-2.

This is where the rubber meets the road, so to speak.  For various reasons most working Americans should see a year over year increase in gross pay.  The current administration would like to take credit for that and if you are in certain categories maybe they should.  Of course gross pay isn't the best indicator, but its at least a easy to identify one.

IN many states any increase might be attributed to an increase in the minimum wage, not something done by the Federal Government  Twenty states increased minimum wage in 2019 and that has a significant impact on income growth.

The other issue is that much of the income growth is going to be consumed by higher deductibles and co-pays on health care.  Companies have been reducing cost by transferring costs to the employees.

Still the economy is doing well enough that many companies did give out raises.  Some more than others.  The real question is do they make a difference for most?

Economics uses averages but people live in singularity.  How many families feel significantly better off under this administration.  Certainly the people who have significant investments have done well and property values are doing OK, so the answer is, like always, it depends.

However, the people who were struggling before the last election are still struggling.  Manufacturing is pretty stagnant, tariffs hurt many and wage increase hardly offset increase expenses.

One of the things that happens in economics is that you measure by period.  So 2019 is compared to 2018, etc.  So things like the great recession of 2008-2009 get cooked in.  

I don't know if there has been a significant economic boom in the average person's income.  It doesn't seem like it, the main beneficiaries are those already doing well.


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