How's He Doing?

The presidential election is still almost 4 months away and while we have polls they may or may not be predictive.

 

The current President has always been a lousy human being who is shallow and self centered, but that is not new, we knew who he was.  Last time he lucked out by running against someone who was disliked nearly as much as him.

 

People voted for him despite that to some extent because he promised to change certain things and restore some imagined time when you could farm, work in a factory or mine and live the life of Riley.

 

Of course he can't change economic trends really, they just continue.  Whatever success he had was small, if he was really trying, and the things he did like imposing tariffs, rolling back environmental regulations, reducing taxes on the rich, and renegotiating trade agreements didn't really have much impact on average Americans.  Yes unemployment continued to decline but the jobs weren't significantly better and the good jobs still went to college educated people with skills.

 

There are plenty of gig jobs being created but while they are honest work they don't pay or provide the benefits the old manufacturing jobs did.

 

Still he had juiced the stock market to some extent and one of the things that happens is that when the economy is reported as good people feel they might get their turn next.

 

I think the idea of trickle down works best with expectations.

 

You might sill be working a low paying service job and live in an area where opioid addictions is rampant and opportunities are slim, but if the economy is so good prosperity must be coming. 

 

It probably wasn't, at least not until we adjusted to the new realities and embraced the industries of the future. Of course that wouldn't change the issue of automation where unskilled labor is done by robots.

 

The perceptions may have been enough until we met the virus.

 

That wasn't his fault, just the management of it.  He displayed all his worst traits daily on TV for awhile because he was getting good ratings.

 

It wasn't good for him because not all publicity is good publicity, especially once everybody know your name.

 

We got to know him and to know him is not to love him.

 

Can he reverse the polls?  Time will tell.

Fraudulent System

Generally speaking the majority views are not what prevail in this country.  What does prevail are the views that are needed to win an election.

Most voters, at least based on how they vote, seem fairly content with the way things are.  This is the reason incumbents win so much.  In the voting booth our often apathetic voter sees a name he or she recognizes and votes for them.

If however there is an issue that has come to their attention which is important to them they will likely vote for the candidate that is for it.

Some issues like gun rights, abortion, immigration and others have strong adherents who tend to vote as a bloc.  It doesn't require them to be a majority, simply united enough to sway an otherwise close election.

It works even better at the primary level where they find it much easier to nominate a candidate favorable to their views.  If you are a moderate Republican or a Democrat for that matter, you may very well wonder how certain people became your candidates?

Either you or people like you didn't vote.

Once a candidate becomes a parties nominee, they get support from many people who may not really agree with them.  They probably pay lip service to some of the party's platform but they were effectively nominated and then elected because of a single or maybe a few issue that have ardent supporters.

So even though most Americans support things, those things become casualties of how we select and elect our representatives.  The solution would be to get more voters at every level.

The current system is the fraudulent if legal one where people get elected who don't really represent the country.

It doesn't seem likely to change soon.

Time to Decide

As odd as the presidential is likely to be because of the conditions, we still need to focus on the issues that are at issue.

In addition to the issues related to the current virus we have to deal with our healthcare crisis.

The system that has existed is in greater danger than ever before as employee provided insurance is in jeopardy.  The system of health care needs to be adjusted so that all Americans can get care when needed.

We are the only modern country that has citizens either locked out of health care or forced to pay exorbitant amounts.  The ACA has some benefits and some flaws but it doesn't cover everybody as it is.

You either want to provide health care to all or you don't.

We also have to consider student debt.  We have a system where getting an education leaves many of our young people in debt they carry with them.  As the economy suffers this debt becomes unpayable.

Does this make any sense?

Fairness in our economy is also an issue.  The economy has been going through an adjustment form a manufacturing base to a service base.  It has become cheaper to use automation or foreign sources for much manufacturing.  The owners and executives have benefitted while many workers have suffered.  We are faced with severe wealth inequality.  

There are a range of social issues that should in today's age be no-brainers.  Every person deserves respect and the ability to live his best life.  Unfortunately some find the way others live objectionable.  We went through this during the civil rights era and the work is not finished.  

Unfortunately a number of people seem to believe that expanding rights to all diminishes theirs somehow.  It doesn't.  Of course it does eliminate certain expectations of privileged treatment.  

Climate change is perhaps the biggest issue we face.  Ignoring it is going to condemn future generations to face the consequences.  We need to act like responsible adults.

Similarly we need to address the growing national debt.  That bill is also going to come due.

We have serious issues to address and we need to decide on them soon.  

Time is not our friend here.

  

The Election is Coming

Any speculation about the November election seems a bit premature but the current situation is clearly going to influence it.

We live in a country where barring a major upheaval, there are Red States, Blue States and Battleground States.

In forming the country, we set up the Senate and the Electoral college to protect what were the slave states from the more populous and industrial states.  This has carried forward and gives our more rural states a disproportionate voice in many ways.

So instead of just the popular vote there has to be an electoral college strategy to achieve victory.

So what does this mean?  Last election, despite losing the popular vote by a significant margin, Trump managed to carry a small number of battleground states by extremely slim margins and win the electoral college vote.

He won those states for two reasons.  Much of his base was energized to vote since they believed he represented a significant change from "normal" politics and the democratic candidate failed to turn out or energize much of her base.

It turns out the three states that swung the election, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin did so by the slimmest of margins.

The factors that led to that are varied but perhaps the biggest one was the dislike many voters felt for the Democratic candidate, whether merited or not.

In addition, since the polls indicated she would win, many felt free to not vote in protest or to vote for a third party candidate.

If you consider the candidates from the last election, the two parties managed to nominate two candidates that had very unfavorable ratings.  It was one of the quirks of our system that an unpopular candidate can win in a crowded primary if they have a dedicated group of followers.

The next election is likely to be very different for a lot of reasons.  It is of course too early to predict but we are unlikely to hear many chants of lock him up, at least directed at the Democratic candidate.