People in this country can get jobs but the jobs that they can get are just not what they used to be.
You used to be able to take care of a family working normal hours.
It's only the fortunate few who can still do that.
To say the economy is doing so wonderfully is misstating the facts.
This is unfortunately the results of the automation and technology improvements that have taken many good paying jobs and turned them into robotic jobs.
This was not the Utopian future predicted by some science fiction writers.
At least not for most of humanity.
This is the future where we destroy the climate, force most of humanity into debt and menial jobs while a small number of privileged elite enjoy the fruits of their labor.
The world needs to decide which path to take.
Egalitarian, or elitism.
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Saturday, November 30, 2019
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Moving Forward!
There are some things that are truths but which some people don't want to admit.
For example, progress, while benefitting most people doesn't benefit all.
For most improvements in history there were winners and losers.
Generally the winners outnumbered the losers, but if you were a loser, that's not much consolation.
I'm not being complex here, we used to have elevators that required operators, now they don't, no more elevator operators.
There is a long list of jobs we no longer need, and in most cases the people who lost those jobs simply had to move on.
Sometimes the changes are more dramatic than others.
As farming was transformed with the introduction of tractors and other equipment that could replace field workers we saw a migration from farm to city. It was disruptive but in a generation is was absorbed.
We have seen a similar disruption in manufacturing as robotics and international trade has eliminated many high paying low skill manufacturing jobs.
The adjustment is ongoing and mitigated somewhat by our demographics.
However it isn't going to revert to what it was. It has to become something new.
What will that be? Well predictions of that sort are generally wrong because we don't know what we don't know.
We just need to move forward and be ready to meet the challenges.
For example, progress, while benefitting most people doesn't benefit all.
For most improvements in history there were winners and losers.
Generally the winners outnumbered the losers, but if you were a loser, that's not much consolation.
I'm not being complex here, we used to have elevators that required operators, now they don't, no more elevator operators.
There is a long list of jobs we no longer need, and in most cases the people who lost those jobs simply had to move on.
Sometimes the changes are more dramatic than others.
As farming was transformed with the introduction of tractors and other equipment that could replace field workers we saw a migration from farm to city. It was disruptive but in a generation is was absorbed.
We have seen a similar disruption in manufacturing as robotics and international trade has eliminated many high paying low skill manufacturing jobs.
The adjustment is ongoing and mitigated somewhat by our demographics.
However it isn't going to revert to what it was. It has to become something new.
What will that be? Well predictions of that sort are generally wrong because we don't know what we don't know.
We just need to move forward and be ready to meet the challenges.
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Great America
The American people have to decide what kind of Government they want, one that recreates the robber baron age and says maybe you can get a job or one that guarantees certain standards for all.
During the age of industrialization you had the growth of slums and ghettos and millions of people living in abject poverty, working for survival wages and often at risk for deadly diseases that killed or crippled millions.
There were some periods of prosperity but those periods did not help everybody, just the more fortunate.
This was during a time when manual labor was the only real way to get things done and still wages were barely sufficient to sustain life.
Of course some bettered themselves, but many couldn't until the Unions and the new deal led to a period where the working person started to earn a living wage and had a bit of a safety net that provided some support in periods of unemployment and a small pension in old age.
This is the period that most people envision when they hear the slogan, "Make America Great Again" and the dotard promises to bring back those jobs and open those mines.
Of course his policies do the very opposite as they rip apart the social safety net and endanger social security and Medicare.
He say they don't but they do.
America of the future is going to be very different from the America of the past, but to achieve that future we need to accept that its training and skills which lead to success.
Automation is replacing the unskilled and semi-skilled labor.
Its continuing and giving business more profits will only allow the pace to pick up.
Address the world of tomorrow or fantasize about the past, the choice is ours and while fantasy is easy, it just lasts a little while.
During the age of industrialization you had the growth of slums and ghettos and millions of people living in abject poverty, working for survival wages and often at risk for deadly diseases that killed or crippled millions.
There were some periods of prosperity but those periods did not help everybody, just the more fortunate.
This was during a time when manual labor was the only real way to get things done and still wages were barely sufficient to sustain life.
Of course some bettered themselves, but many couldn't until the Unions and the new deal led to a period where the working person started to earn a living wage and had a bit of a safety net that provided some support in periods of unemployment and a small pension in old age.
This is the period that most people envision when they hear the slogan, "Make America Great Again" and the dotard promises to bring back those jobs and open those mines.
Of course his policies do the very opposite as they rip apart the social safety net and endanger social security and Medicare.
He say they don't but they do.
America of the future is going to be very different from the America of the past, but to achieve that future we need to accept that its training and skills which lead to success.
Automation is replacing the unskilled and semi-skilled labor.
Its continuing and giving business more profits will only allow the pace to pick up.
Address the world of tomorrow or fantasize about the past, the choice is ours and while fantasy is easy, it just lasts a little while.
Saturday, May 27, 2017
Challenge or Opportunity
Years ago I remember being told by an instructor that every challenge is also an opportunity.
Some let the challenge defeat them and others figure out ways to overcome the challenge.
It seems like this has become the defining characteristic of our society, the difference between those who want to give up and those who want to move forward.
We are faced with a number of challenges, such as climate change, terrorism, poverty, health care, etc etc.
We see the world of robots and automation eliminating jobs and forcing many people to reconsider their futures.
However, these challenges present opportunities as well as we can explore alternative energy sources, protect ourselves from terrorists, expand health care, and in general embrace the future.
The question is do we try to deny that the future is coming and bury our heads in the sand or do we embrace it and figure out how to benefit everyone, not just a few.
Unfortunately I feel that a large portion of the country would like to turn back the clock because the future scares them.
The associate it with things they don't like and fear it is changing the face of America.
Well, the face of America has changed many times before as we incorporated more and more people into it. Rest assured, after a generation they are as American as anyone else. There is a certain irony in that the children and grandchildren of immigrants who were viewed negatively have now embraced that view towards the new immigrants.
No one has ever been able to turn back the hands of time, and we need to make our country and the world a better place for all of us.
We need to look for the opportunities and defeat the challenges we face
Otherwise we are defeating ourselves.
Some let the challenge defeat them and others figure out ways to overcome the challenge.
It seems like this has become the defining characteristic of our society, the difference between those who want to give up and those who want to move forward.
We are faced with a number of challenges, such as climate change, terrorism, poverty, health care, etc etc.
We see the world of robots and automation eliminating jobs and forcing many people to reconsider their futures.
However, these challenges present opportunities as well as we can explore alternative energy sources, protect ourselves from terrorists, expand health care, and in general embrace the future.
The question is do we try to deny that the future is coming and bury our heads in the sand or do we embrace it and figure out how to benefit everyone, not just a few.
Unfortunately I feel that a large portion of the country would like to turn back the clock because the future scares them.
The associate it with things they don't like and fear it is changing the face of America.
Well, the face of America has changed many times before as we incorporated more and more people into it. Rest assured, after a generation they are as American as anyone else. There is a certain irony in that the children and grandchildren of immigrants who were viewed negatively have now embraced that view towards the new immigrants.
No one has ever been able to turn back the hands of time, and we need to make our country and the world a better place for all of us.
We need to look for the opportunities and defeat the challenges we face
Otherwise we are defeating ourselves.
Saturday, April 8, 2017
Saturday Ramblings
For those of you in favor of unilateral executive air strikes, less jobs, more pollution, less worker rights, and less equality, it must be a good day.
It is possible that a majority of Americans no longer care about the tired, the poor, the huddled masses yearning to breathe free, but I don't accept that.
It looks like Republicans may take another shot at health care, not sure they can agree on what day it is though, so we'll have to see.
If you put your faith in wealthy people to help the country, the only thing they have demonstrated is an ability to help themselves, to whatever they wanted.
I see so many posts talking about stopping things that aren't even happening, I have to conclude its a deliberate disinformation campaign. Wish people would check facts just a bit.
Watching some interviews with Americans about current events and things I take for granted is pretty scary at times. I mean its really scary.
There are still people convinced that Pizzagate was a real thing. I mean how is that possible?
We are clearly moving further and further into a society of the have's and the have not's. This is the problem that has been faced many times before by empires. You can see how many survived it.
Its springtime and this is pretty depressing so far. The good news is rich people are going to get even richer, so if you are one, you're in luck.
In the sci-fi world the future is depicted in a number of ways. Most of them involve pretty bleak outcomes where either machines or aliens dominate us and we end up fighting for survival. Some show us falling into a replication of the past with a despot taking over. A very few describe a utopian future where machines do all the heavy work and we enjoy the benefits. As much as i like the last one, it requires a sharing of the benefit so without that we end up with the despot.
Of course we are seeing more potential danger from nuclear proliferation and maybe the dark days of the cold war are coming back.
I wouldn't consider that making us great again.
It is possible that a majority of Americans no longer care about the tired, the poor, the huddled masses yearning to breathe free, but I don't accept that.
It looks like Republicans may take another shot at health care, not sure they can agree on what day it is though, so we'll have to see.
If you put your faith in wealthy people to help the country, the only thing they have demonstrated is an ability to help themselves, to whatever they wanted.
I see so many posts talking about stopping things that aren't even happening, I have to conclude its a deliberate disinformation campaign. Wish people would check facts just a bit.
Watching some interviews with Americans about current events and things I take for granted is pretty scary at times. I mean its really scary.
There are still people convinced that Pizzagate was a real thing. I mean how is that possible?
We are clearly moving further and further into a society of the have's and the have not's. This is the problem that has been faced many times before by empires. You can see how many survived it.
Its springtime and this is pretty depressing so far. The good news is rich people are going to get even richer, so if you are one, you're in luck.
In the sci-fi world the future is depicted in a number of ways. Most of them involve pretty bleak outcomes where either machines or aliens dominate us and we end up fighting for survival. Some show us falling into a replication of the past with a despot taking over. A very few describe a utopian future where machines do all the heavy work and we enjoy the benefits. As much as i like the last one, it requires a sharing of the benefit so without that we end up with the despot.
Of course we are seeing more potential danger from nuclear proliferation and maybe the dark days of the cold war are coming back.
I wouldn't consider that making us great again.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Some Thoughts on the next year.
Taking over the presidency now will mean that the first few months or year will look like you are great. We have an economy that is near full employment few US service men is danger and generally speaking decent economic factors that are still challenged by our demographics.
Of course to continue on that path would require a continuation of the current policies which is not likely. Most likely to try to win over voters for the mid-terms we will see a tax cut pass.
Of course the main beneficiaries of that tax cut will be wealthy people and the average American will see very little of it, and may even pay more based on how they manipulate the deductions.
It will however be touted as a major tax cut and our gullible citizens will eat it up for a while.
Coupled with the increased infrastructure and defense spending that is likely we will see expanding deficits and greater national debt.
To offset some of that we will also see cuts in the services that working and poor people need, like food stamps, social security, medicare, education, environment and housing.
The general belief that these programs benefit only the unworthy will be put to the real world test.
The idea that good paying manufacturing jobs are going to spring up and offset these cuts is pretty delusional since any jobs that come here will be relatively low paying, especially in the rust belt states, where there are some available facilities and labor.
Now if we do in fact start to export undocumented immigrants and reduce new immigrants, those who elude capture will work for very low wages.
Reductions in the federal infrastructure will make enforcement more and more difficult as the budget cuts hit home.
The spending on infrastructure will create some jobs but the number of people is still limited by the availability of projects and physical space limitations. Of course if we march all those rust belt people to build a wall using ancient Egyptian techniques we may keep them occupied if meagerly paid.
It remains to be seen how this impacts the mid-terms since the gerrymandering in the states is so pervasive that it would take a real crisis to change the congress, and this cycle in the Senate is not so favorable.
What is pretty certain is that while public announcements will be about how great things are, reality is going to be, well reality.
Of course to continue on that path would require a continuation of the current policies which is not likely. Most likely to try to win over voters for the mid-terms we will see a tax cut pass.
Of course the main beneficiaries of that tax cut will be wealthy people and the average American will see very little of it, and may even pay more based on how they manipulate the deductions.
It will however be touted as a major tax cut and our gullible citizens will eat it up for a while.
Coupled with the increased infrastructure and defense spending that is likely we will see expanding deficits and greater national debt.
To offset some of that we will also see cuts in the services that working and poor people need, like food stamps, social security, medicare, education, environment and housing.
The general belief that these programs benefit only the unworthy will be put to the real world test.
The idea that good paying manufacturing jobs are going to spring up and offset these cuts is pretty delusional since any jobs that come here will be relatively low paying, especially in the rust belt states, where there are some available facilities and labor.
Now if we do in fact start to export undocumented immigrants and reduce new immigrants, those who elude capture will work for very low wages.
Reductions in the federal infrastructure will make enforcement more and more difficult as the budget cuts hit home.
The spending on infrastructure will create some jobs but the number of people is still limited by the availability of projects and physical space limitations. Of course if we march all those rust belt people to build a wall using ancient Egyptian techniques we may keep them occupied if meagerly paid.
It remains to be seen how this impacts the mid-terms since the gerrymandering in the states is so pervasive that it would take a real crisis to change the congress, and this cycle in the Senate is not so favorable.
What is pretty certain is that while public announcements will be about how great things are, reality is going to be, well reality.
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Mr Robot
While this was the name of a critically acclaimed TV series, I'm not going to talk about that today. Instead, this is the name of the people who will do most of the jobs that require little skill or independence.
We have already seen millions and millions of these jobs disappear and will continue to see more go. In all honesty the jobs they take weren't good jobs except for the fact that they paid a decent wage in some cases.
We know the drudgery of working on assembly line was one of the iconic images of the past century and while providing jobs and product led to lots of related issues.
We are transitioning to a world where humans are going to have to exercise judgment and expertise while the brainless jobs are automated. This has some great advantages which are concentrated in our tech centers, like Silicon valley while hurting our rust belt as well as people everywhere who don't have sufficient skills.
The absence of a typing pool eliminates lots of jobs that used to require an easily acquired skill but has eliminated a mind killing occupation. Similarly assembly lines were people were treated like automatons have disappeared and are being done by actual automatons.
Its prevalent in many industries and is leading to certain difficult transitions as the new skills required are not possessed by many of the displaced.
New jobs which require humans to exhibit human qualities such as judgment will replace the jobs that are gone. This is the future that was predicted in a lot of sci-fi and futurist predictions of course offset by the future in which the machines become dominant. Let's hope we can avoid "The Matrix" or "The Terminator" type scenario and have robots that make everyone's life easier.
Now the people who will live in this new future need to be prepared for it, learning how to exercise judgment and analytical skills. Others, may have to perform more menial tasks
Barring some apocalyptic style event that pushes humanity back into a dark age, the future is a wonderful place where Mr. Robot is there to make things easier and better.
Preventing it or reversing it is neither desireable nor possible and trying to will only provide other countries with opportunities to surpass us.
We have already seen millions and millions of these jobs disappear and will continue to see more go. In all honesty the jobs they take weren't good jobs except for the fact that they paid a decent wage in some cases.
We know the drudgery of working on assembly line was one of the iconic images of the past century and while providing jobs and product led to lots of related issues.
We are transitioning to a world where humans are going to have to exercise judgment and expertise while the brainless jobs are automated. This has some great advantages which are concentrated in our tech centers, like Silicon valley while hurting our rust belt as well as people everywhere who don't have sufficient skills.
The absence of a typing pool eliminates lots of jobs that used to require an easily acquired skill but has eliminated a mind killing occupation. Similarly assembly lines were people were treated like automatons have disappeared and are being done by actual automatons.
Its prevalent in many industries and is leading to certain difficult transitions as the new skills required are not possessed by many of the displaced.
New jobs which require humans to exhibit human qualities such as judgment will replace the jobs that are gone. This is the future that was predicted in a lot of sci-fi and futurist predictions of course offset by the future in which the machines become dominant. Let's hope we can avoid "The Matrix" or "The Terminator" type scenario and have robots that make everyone's life easier.
Now the people who will live in this new future need to be prepared for it, learning how to exercise judgment and analytical skills. Others, may have to perform more menial tasks
Barring some apocalyptic style event that pushes humanity back into a dark age, the future is a wonderful place where Mr. Robot is there to make things easier and better.
Preventing it or reversing it is neither desireable nor possible and trying to will only provide other countries with opportunities to surpass us.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
Trends
Some things are happening is post industrial America that cause some pain to people. These are trends caused by the improvements in technology and globalization of world markets.
Now similar to other major economic changes, there are those who want to stop them or blame particular individuals for the issues. However the culprit is the emotionless realm of economics and despite any one's best efforts it is inexorable.
Automation and technology has eliminated many jobs. In the office environment these were generally lower paying jobs but nonetheless good jobs that provided a pathway for many.
In manufacturing the jobs that can be done by robots will be. If you don't convert and your competitors do you will be non-competitive.
The forces at work here are what is called progress, which is constant and not easily ignored. Progress has caused disruption before and has been resisted before, but ultimately it always wins, because those who adapt it become more successful than those who don't.
So what does it mean?
The future has a certain amount of uncertainly about it but certain trends are fairly clear.
It is better to use machines if feasible, they are more reliable and manageable.
Where you have to use manual labor you need to do it as cheaply as you can to be competitive. So as we globalize, work will be outsourced if it is cheaper.
People with the correct skills to manage the machines or the enterprise will be in demand.
So what about everyone else?
What is left is simply service jobs.
Now some service jobs are in demand but be clear, there are efforts underway to automate many of them.
Take tax preparation. As tax programs grow and prove accurate, the number of people who use traditional tax services is declining. Similarly, many legal services can be done using automation, although in many places the legal profession has made rules protecting themselves.
Even in the medical world we see more and more automated options that reduce the need to visit a health professional.
(to be continued)
Now similar to other major economic changes, there are those who want to stop them or blame particular individuals for the issues. However the culprit is the emotionless realm of economics and despite any one's best efforts it is inexorable.
Automation and technology has eliminated many jobs. In the office environment these were generally lower paying jobs but nonetheless good jobs that provided a pathway for many.
In manufacturing the jobs that can be done by robots will be. If you don't convert and your competitors do you will be non-competitive.
The forces at work here are what is called progress, which is constant and not easily ignored. Progress has caused disruption before and has been resisted before, but ultimately it always wins, because those who adapt it become more successful than those who don't.
So what does it mean?
The future has a certain amount of uncertainly about it but certain trends are fairly clear.
It is better to use machines if feasible, they are more reliable and manageable.
Where you have to use manual labor you need to do it as cheaply as you can to be competitive. So as we globalize, work will be outsourced if it is cheaper.
People with the correct skills to manage the machines or the enterprise will be in demand.
So what about everyone else?
What is left is simply service jobs.
Now some service jobs are in demand but be clear, there are efforts underway to automate many of them.
Take tax preparation. As tax programs grow and prove accurate, the number of people who use traditional tax services is declining. Similarly, many legal services can be done using automation, although in many places the legal profession has made rules protecting themselves.
Even in the medical world we see more and more automated options that reduce the need to visit a health professional.
(to be continued)
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