Here We Go Again!

The amount of phony information showing up on social media and elsewhere has picked up again because of  concerted effort to sway voters.  Some of it might even have some actual facts in it but thy are taken out of context and distorted.

This unfortunately starts with the President who continually lies and distorts everywhere he goes.

Since the debate there is a concerted effort to depict Joe Biden as wearing a wire or having an ear piece.  Both have been debunked but that doesn't matter to the lie spreaders.

Of course we will see a lot of innuendo also based on debunked information.

Its not worth spending time trying to disprove most of this because that only serves to spread them further.  Generally you can find mainstream media that debunks them and you can chare them if you want but even that sort of helps propagate the false claims.

We are a month away and I would like to think that everyone outside his base of cult followers can see the truth.

This bombardment of fake items and lies had some impact four years ago and it might even have some again.  

However fool us once shame on you.  Fool us twice, shame on us.

Innocent or just missing evidence?

We don't generally give accused people the benefit of the doubt much anymore.

Many accused people, especially celebrities are considered guilty when accused.

Our system of justice says you are innocent until proven guilty, but the court of public opinion uses a much lower threshold.

The courts apply a beyond all reasonable doubt criteria for criminal cases and in many cases, even with criminal acquittals, there is plenty of reasonable evidence.

To protect the innocent we have erected many restrictions on what evidence can be admitted and what a jury can be exposed to.

There is an old adage that says it is better to let a 10 guilty men go free than to convict one innocent one.

Of course one wonders if future victims of those 100 would agree with that?

Happy Thanksgiving

There are many things to be thankful for and we should probably remember that more than once a year.

Still I guess once a year is better than never so I hope everyone has a wonderful day and considers all the things that are good instead of just focusing on some of the bad.

There is plenty of days to focus on the bad things around.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Syria Strikes

It remains to be seen whether the air strikes in Syria accomplish anything, probably not but maybe it will be some deterrence.

Thee is also no doubt that the regime in Syria is managing to survive unlike dictators in places like Libya and Egypt.

The so called Arab Spring didn't seem to result in a lot of democratic institutions springing up.

Certainly I don't think we see a lot of pro-Western governments.

Fundamentally, most Arabs support the Palestinians in the dispute with Israel and generally still oppose the existence of Israel itself.

Since we are clearly considered a main supporter of Israel we don't have a lot of friends in the region.

We also get blamed to some extent for stealing their oil wealth and of course for introducing wicked Western culture to many of their young people.

Back during the Bush administration their was a certain belief that removal of dictators like Saddam Hussein would lead to more democratic and therefore more Western friendly states.

We then saw some additional dictators eliminated during the Arab Spring where Egypt and Libya got rid of their dictators.  It looked a lot like Syria was going to be next, but it was not to be as the spread of Isis sort of killed that momentum.

Clearly with the support of Russia and Iran Syria's government looks safe and we are not engaged in trying to overturn it.

Outside of supporting Israel and opposing terrorist organizations we don't seem to have much of a policy there right now.

Of course that's pretty much par for this administration.

Clinton Obsession

It doesn't matter if you like the Clintons or detest them they apparently get you sales or clicks or attention when you attack them.

Long after it could possibly matter to anything we see articles or speeches about what her campaign did or did not do about a sexual harasser in 2008, whether she was given preferential treatment during the silly investigation into her e-mails, as well as continuing allegations about how they misused or misused their foundation.

Since there has never been a lack of public scrutiny on anything they do I feel safe to predict that none of this will amount to anything except, as I said a few extra clicks, a few extra sales or a bit more press coverage.

Clearly the people who have grown to hate them aren't ever going to be satisfied until the unprovable is proven.

Oddly while there are a certain number who are convinced they are evil and should be punished, both of them are still among the most admired people in the country.

It seems like a real love hate relationship, although the hate seems much more virulent.

A lot of conspiracy theories are kept alive by our fo(a)z(ke) news media joke with seemingly endless discussion of all the evil things they have done.

It sold and it still sells, so they keep pushing it.

Its more than a fad, its a real obsession.

Risk vs Cost

One of the things that is different between the Government and private industry is profit motivation.

Private industry in order to exist must make money and in order to make money they have to sell a product at a profit.

This tends to make cost the most important factor in many decisions.

Government on the other hand is really about risk.

The risk to human lives, the risk to the environment, the risk to our national security.

Risk is a factor in private industry and cost is a factor in Government but facing the same decision about trading risk for cost (less risk more cost), private industry will opt for more cost in cases where Government will opt for less risk.

Of course the vast majority of decisions are probably decided the same by both, but in a few crucial one, one will accept a risk which the other will not.

Its hard to say what the better approach actually is, there is a risk of being too risk averse and never quite finishing and of course the other side risk is that we have breakdowns and human lives at risk.

I've read quite a few examples where certain industries determined that the cost of paying settlements would be less than the cost of eliminating a problem.

Of course the gamble is with us, the consumer, and the unlucky few that suffer the consequences will often never recover.

We are in a period where the current administration wants to eliminate as much Government as it can and rely upon private industry.  It probably will be cheaper but not necessarily better.

What is the risk of the banks regulating themselves?

I think 2008 might be the answer.

Do Your Job

There's people who work and people who spend most of their time talking about how great they are.

We all know those people, You've probably worked with at least one of them.  They don't do much but everything they do is both the hardest thing ever tried and also they did it better than anyone else.

They have no problem taking credit and unfortunately because they talk themselves up they have a tendency to get recognized before more deserving workers who just do their jobs.

Its one of the problems with the subjective way many American businesses run and why in so many cases you find incompetent bosses.

Obviously this is not always the case, but we now see an example of someone who got ahead because of nepotism, failed multiple times, had a few successes but who is convinced he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

He isn't and he may even realize that, but he might be too delusional.

Doing his job includes many things but fighting with widows of deceased servicemen isn't one of them.

In fact he seems to think that he is job one.

He isn't, he is now supposed to be a public servant who needs to do his job.

That job would be working with congress, uniting the country and dealing with foreign affairs.  Being the Commander in Chief gives him added responsibility for the troops he theoretically leads.

It doesn't matter if I agree with his policies, he should try to get something passed and be willing to strike a deal in the best interests of the public.

He ran on a campaign about how Government was broken and on the wrong track.

That's the only campaign promise he has managed to fulfill.

Empathy

Its a very difficult thing talking to someone who has lost a loved one. Nothing is likely to ease the pain, so most people tend to say things like "He's in a better place" or "You have your wonderful memories to hold onto."

Of course this requires that you have at least a little tact and social awareness.

To tell a widow, "well he knew what he signed up for" is both insensitive and wrong.

No one I know signs up to die.

The understand the risks but hope to serve our country while surviving.

Its certainly not comforting and only said by someone so self absorbed that they have no empathy at all.

It also isn't surprising that he said this to the widow of a black soldier.

Clearly he is uncomfortable in dealing with black people in a non-official capacity.

Its not surprising that he is inept at this and he could have avoided some of the awkwardness if he had been at Dover when the bodies returned.  Of course he had a golf game that demanded his attention.

This man only cares about himself and maybe his children.  You can tell his relationship with his current wife is pretty chilly.  I'm not really sure he cares about his children the way a father should, he seems to lust after his own daughter.

The characteristics he displays are symptom of a sociopath in that he doesn't seem to understand normal human emotions.  However he might just be an egomaniac.

Those who fell for his lies are starting to see that he isn't going to deliver the better life they were hoping for.  More likely they will be impoverished by the cost of his health plan, which is make things worse so they repeal the law nicknamed after his predecessor 

Of course that assumes that the North Koreans don't deliver a bomb to end their troubles.

At least that would be quicker..

True Colors

We are starting to see the real nature of Trump supporters emerge into the sunlight.

Its pretty ugly, but we always knew they were there.

At least like roaches they used to scurry away when exposed to light, but now they stay and thumb their noses at us.

Of course they feel the president is with them and to some extent he is.

He sent them alt-right code all through his campaign and those of you who refused to hear it have to own it now.

Now I want to be clear that in comparison to the fascists who rose to power in the 1930s our man is a weak link.  He may however be paving a path for someone with much more ambition and guile.

He also doesn't have control of his own party the way the other fascists did.

I don't see a path for him to redeem himself, but one might exist.

There seem to be enough people out there who feel that something drastic is needed to fix what they feel are the problems with America.

Of course the thing that needs to be fixed is them.

If you developed skills and paid attention the odds are you are doing OK.

I get a kick out of these rugged individualists who want the Government to fix their own failure to evolve.

They don't even believe in evolution.

Foreign Affairs?

Well no nuclear explosions overnight, count your blessings.

This is a situation most guy and some gals have had to face growing up, someone has called you out and you can fight, and possibly get hurt badly, or chicken out and be branded.

I always fought and I survived.  I used to get a lot of practice fighting my brother so it seemed pretty normal to me.

I understand the problem other boys had and I also knew that the best way to win a fight was to hurt your opponent painfully.

Now why talk about schoolyard or playground fighting, because that's what our international situation has become.

The difference is that based on the size of our military, we are almost definitely the bully.  Now that doesn't mean the other kid didn't call us name or otherwise instigate us.

However, when you are so much bigger than the other guy, beating him up isn't going to garner much respect.  Of course you might give him a quick punch in the arm to shut him up and hope he gets the lesson.

If you know he will react to that by flailing about wildly forcing you to take him down you may need to consider that.

Its a tricky situation that generally requires some tact.

Something currently in short supply.

Now we are threatening Venezuela. Just because the news covers something, it doesn't mean its our problem.  There are many, many countries in the world run badly and you can't send troops into all of them.

I seem to remember someone making that very point not too long ago.

Saturday Musings

The goal of congress should be to improve things, not just show they can pass something.

The two party system is destroying this country.  You can have two districts almost identical in most respects but if one elects a Republican and the other elects a Democrat, they will be represented totally differently.

The needs of the electorate, the health of the country and the protection of the future should be what every representative strives for.

Its so expensive to run for office that you can't usually do well as an independent, no funds or infrastructure so we have to rely on primary battles.

Primaries are ruining the parties since small special interest groups can get a candidate nominated because of widespread voter apathy.

The parties need to consider alternates to how they conduct business, maybe they need to find a way to get more members to vote, electronic?

Somehow I'm on the mailing list of both major parties and I don't get anything from either of them that doesn't end up asking for money.

I guess in some ways its good for the economy that so much is spent on these races, but I can think of much better uses for the amounts being spent.

We need a system that reflects what the American people really want, because what we have doesn't do that.

I don't want any American to lose, its not some sports event even though we sort of conduct it that way.

How can we create a future for our children with a healthy environment, good education, good jobs, good health care and a chance to raise a family, before retiring comfortably?

Is anyone opposed to those things?

Delusion in the White House

When you can simply believe totally unsubstantiated stories that are actually pretty ludicrous its hard to know how to react.

Our President like to say he is the one being persecuted when in fact he is simply a paranoid delusional person.

Yes, many people think he's a complete idiot, with a lot of justification, but the fact that he is now President means his actions have repercussions.

Back when he was a B List Celebrity he could engage in things like birther conspiracies and get away with it, but he is starting to expose himself to the ridicule he deserves.

He has supporters who believe these rantings, but those who were giving him the benefit of the doubt, have to rethink that.

Of course some of his supporters believe that there was a sex ring under a pizzeria in the District, so they believe all this crap.

However, if you have even half a brain, you should be able to see what he is.

He is delusional, and thinks the late night Internet stuff is the real news while all the well established reputable news outlets are fake news.

This is a sick man and where it can end up is anybody's guess,

America should be concerned, and maybe afraid.  What late night news story could lead to a war?

I don't care what your politics are, this is a delusional person.

America's Political Infrastructure is Broken

Imagine a country where a party that takes over a Government then changes the rules so that they are guaranteed to stay in control despite what appear to be "free" elections despite the fact that most residents support the opposition party?

We would probably consider it a dictatorship and certainly not consider it democratic.

Yet that is the situation here in these United States as between gerrymandering, voter suppression and our old standby, the electoral college we have created a minority controlled congress and presidency.

Of course the electoral college was always anti-democratic as the states with lower populations got the same number of senators as states with much larger populations.  The idea that California and Wyoming have the same number of Senators representing their people is absurd on the face of it.

This disproportionate importance then feeds into the electoral college and while somewhat offset by the number of congress people is simply ridiculous.

Now by both strategy, luck and a lack of common decency, the reaction to the first term of President Obama and a large infusion of special interest money left Republicans in charge of a large number of State Government right after a census led to a reapportionment, giving them the opportunity to redraw congressional districts. Redraw they did with a clear agenda, to marginalize minority votes and assure continued power for them.

Now this isn't a new thing, but with the data we now have and the total lack of fair play in these elected officials we have established a virtual lock on many institutions, which can only be undone if there is a small electoral miracle.

Of course to make it even more complete, they are doing everything they can to suppress votes from our minority communities using voter ID laws and other methods to prevent their voices from being heard.

Our Democracy has been "rigged" to assure that white Republicans maintain control.  It is not going to be easy to fix, an by fix I mean a system where every vote counts about the same and all citizens are able to vote.

It has to start at the state levels and the 2020 elections are the key to fix the gerrymandering.

Statistical Nonsense

Just read an article where the point being made was that 17% of Americans don't favor mandatory vaccinations.  Now that's not a particularly high number and a lot of them apparently are basing this on an article that was discredited linking vaccinations to autism, but it is a sad use of statistics.

First, if you don't have a child in the age group involved your opinion is likely to be about random.  Second, the word mandatory is always going to create some resistance, people don't like it.

So the article pointed out some of the prominent people, including our current President and Ben Carson (a doctor) who have expressed concerns.  However bottom line I read a story that really told me next to nothing.  Did they object to vaccinations or to the Government forcing people to do it? 

Now statistical studies are one way to make sense out of the world, but some things are statistically irrelevant, or maybe not.

Take for instance the increased use of opioids and the election of our current President. The one became an epidemic in parts of this country that swung to him in the election.  A part of me thinks it might be connected but two events happening at the same time do not mean one causes or is even related to the other.

During a period when actual unemployment decreased tremendously, large parts of the country feel it is still a major problem.  One possible reason for this is that the new jobs are not as good as the old jobs were.  So taking a low paying job at a retail establishment may leave the ex-factory worker feeling like he is really still unemployed.

Take resistance to things like Obamacare.  Without arguing the merits of the plan, the articles talk about increasing premiums and deductibles.  The increase in premiums and increased deductibles are not proven to be caused by the law, we see a similar trend in employee provided healthcare, it is more likely related to the aging of America and the increased cost of care.  However, take two facts that seem to have something in common (i.e. medicine) and treat them as causative. 

Terrorism is another example of people misusing statistics.  The level of fear related to terrorism is way our of proportion to the actual risk, especially in this country.  Also banning groups of people to prevent it has no statistical validity that I can find. 

Where the scientific community has provided valid statistical studies and evidence say Climate Change, we see many people refusing to accept it.  It is pretty much irrefutable but we are willing to believe that a 5 year old refugee is a threat but the millions of tons of carbon being released by a factory isn't.

Just nonsense.