Political Lies

 Some of the things people are willing to believe are simply unbelievable.  In the Ohio Senate race one of the candidates apparently thinks the census reported that more people voted then were registered to vote, thereby proving election fraud.  No such report exists, the census didn't make that claim and the facts show nothing close to that.  Most of the other Republican candidates still support the idea that the last Presential election was stolen, trying to get endorsed.

This is not the most blatant lie currently, although it is close.  The accusations fired at our Supreme Court nominee were mostly based on nothing except a desire to get sound bites.  A certain number of Americans will believe them anyway.

Free Speech is one of our great freedoms but seeing it get abused like this makes you wonder if we need stronger libel and slander laws.  Free Speech protects the speakers right to say what he wants, but does it protect him from answering for his lies?

Reform in this area is unlikely, we have too many impediments to progress.

Lying is very important to some politicians.

Living Throughout History

 I was reding a forum today where a question was asked about the Middle Ages being depressing.  It wasn't except when it was.  This answer applies to all periods and all people everywhere.

Today I woke up made something to eat and considered the weather.  I would like to cut back some dead brush around the property but whether I do not that or not depends on the potential rain and how I feel later.  This is not much different than what people have done throughout history except when they were caught up in larger events.

We look at history and focus on the events that might have changed a monarch or led to a war.  Meanwhile in the thousands of years of our history, once individuals ended up in an agrarian life, it generally was about the same everywhere for everyone except when you were caught up in unusual events.  

People tend to focus on what is normal.  Yes, they might be in the way of invading armies or Viking (fill in the raider of your choice) raids but those were a horrible and rare event.  When they were over people picked up the pieces and went about their life.

Our view of the middle ages or even the dark ages is distorted by events that impacted some people horribly but weren't as much of a factor as we think  

Mostly they got up, did the work that needed to be done and hopefully had an uneventful work filled day.

It's what many aspire to today.

Spring Is a Gift

 My backyard is full of birds much of the year but in the spring I have the most.  Right outside my kitchen window is a tree in bloom that attracts feeding birds.  I'm not sure if they eat the blooms or insects attracted to the blooms but there's enough traffic to suggest the food supply is fairly plentiful and constant.

When you see them up close you can see how they are related to how dinosaurs are depicted.  No one ever actually saw  dinosaur, if you exclude birds.  Still our scientists have rendered depictions and recovered fossils giving us a good idea of what they looked like.

Think about how long life has existed on this planet?  Every year, whatever life was here the solar energy and the soil nutrients provided food for all life here.  It has varied and the food chains have chainged but it still continues to provide,

For much of its history humankind did not exist.  We seem to be trying to eliminate us again.  Take care of the earth and we can last as long as the birds have.  

Or not.

Peasantry Reborn!

 Let's be as clear as possible about the future envisioned by the Republican party, the deserving people have good jobs, nice homes and everyone else works for them and struggles to survive with no backup Government programs.

They may envision multiple levels of need but the image they hold to is that of the London described by Charles Dickens where the poor were forced to work for almost nothing while well off Britons lived well.

They seldom say it out loud although recently Republican Senator Rick Scott published the plans and while he outlines an agenda to tax ordinary Americans and eliminate social programs, he continues to lie about it. 

Even radical right media can read and he can't count of the fact that a majority of Americans don't normally read the news.

Understand that the vast majority of us are relegated in their minds to the "working" classs, fully dependent on our employers.  

It allows the right people to live the good life and we get whatever trickles down.

Progress Will Win

 Change is the one thing we can be certain of.  The world's climate has changed pretty dramatically within human history.  It was the receding of the last Ice age that coincided with the spread of homo sapiens and the decline of Neanderthals. 

Were they related?  Well, it seems like they should be but I don't know if we actually know.  They clearly coexisted for some period of time and while looking back at the history would indicate a fairly quick transition, it still would have lasted a fair number of lifetimes.

During any transition period, you have the new mixing with the old.  The old will inevitably give way to the new but they might try to fight back.  We see that today in America and with some success.  However the wave of change will eventually wash them out of the way and a better more fair America will emerge.

Just might be delayed.

Compete for?

 Winston Churchill reportedly said that Democracy s the worst form of Government except for all the others we have tried.

Democracy, by its definition. serves the will of the majority and leaves the minority unhappy.  Now this is not completely true since even the losers in our form can have significant representation and influence

Our system allows the minority to impede legislation and bring progress to a standstill. The other wasy to look at that is that it doesn't allow reckless proposals to pass.

The most common outcome we suffer through is a reaction to the last winners of dissatisfaction.  This leads to a change in the majority.  This generally doesn't fix the issues.

It has led both parties to focus on winning, which is normal.  However what are they winning?   

Oil Capitalism.

 The price of gas is high dues to a whole lot of factors, but hardly any related to Government policies.  Oil companies got devastated when the pandemic hit as demand dropped along with prices, devaluing the inventory.  Further the oil they were producing cost more to produce then they could sell it for.

Oil company took a hit on their bottom line and their stock price.  While consumers liked the prices that resulted, it wasn't the price that could sustain the oil company profits.

When the pandemic eased and demand shot up there wasn't enough supply, so prices increased. This is basic economics. This should be self-correcting as oil companies increase production but after getting burnt and unwilling to risk more shutdowns the wells lay idle.  What they were already producing was demanding premium prices and starting up more wells wasn't going to help they're bottom line.

It's not price gouging it is simple economics and profit margins.  where more wells would lead to reduce profits on curent supply.  

That's Capitalism!

Alien Life?

 Think about alien life, assuming it exists.  The universe is vast and the planets in our solar system would not support advanced life and probably no life at all.

Once you get out of our solar system, the nearest star is about 4.5 light years away.  While that might sound close, most of us would have trouble really envisioning that distance.  A light year is the distance light can travel in a year.  I suppose a planet could exist in that solar system that supports life but if it does we haven't been able to detect it.  We think there is an earth like planer in that solar system based on measurements but we cant go there and verify it.

The point to be made is that space is so vast that even if life advanced enough to be exploring space exists, it is not going to stumble across us, even if it is trying to detect other life.  We think that we are worth looking only because we still, collectively think we are the center of things.

In science fiction, emphasize the fiction they create various mechanisms to account for this like suspended animation, worm holes or other concepts.  These don't exist and without them we are not visiting other solar systems.  Could they exist?  Well who knows but the ideas are creative but not likely.

What is pretty certain is that we haven't had any visitors just dropping by undetected to examine us.  

Our Precarious Existence

 It's not something we like to think about a lot but our existence, living on a rock in the vast expanse of the Universe, is lucky and easily snuffed out without much warning.  Now the very good news, is that while there are many projectiles in space that could disrupt our existence, space is extremely vast, so we are sort of the needle in a haystack.  Sill while the odds of a major collision is very low, given enough time they are going to happen.  Could be this year, this century, this millennia or several millennia in the future.  They have happened before, just ask the dinosaurs, and they will happen again.  There is very little we can do about it so probably better not to worry.  We do have the ability to see it coming but if we do we ay or may not be able to do something about it.  

Some might put your faith in God who in most of our egocentric religions has a special regard for us.  Despite what some of the people running those organizations claim, God did not write those books, men did.  Were they inspired by God?  Sure, why not, believe whatever you want.  It's a lot like using a QUIJA board.  It spells things out but despite all the denials, it is influence, even if subconsciously by the participants.   

Colonization was Brutal

 There is no doubt that the Americas were colonized by Europeans using brutal methods.  Brutality wasn't uncommon and certainly applying it to natives was considered acceptable.  The Spanish and Portuguese had a head start and when you read about some of their conquests and treatment of the natives, it offends your modern sensibilities.

The great riches stolen by those two powers led to open robbery by pirates and privateers.  There was no real consideration for anything, but profit.

The treatment of African slaves was also brutal and uncaring. Slavery was always brutal, slaves were never volunteers, 

The legacy of slavery in this country lives on because somewhat uniquely using Africans made them and their children distinguishable.  Ancient Rome survived because of the slave for hundreds of years, but once freed they became indistinguishable.

Americans for the most part have come a long way although there is still mor to be done.  We need to stop defining things based on the color of one's skin.  Sometimes I thin that is done more by well meaning people than racists.  If you conider every one a racist, you cna't identify the real ones.

Spring

 Today is the official first day of spring. It is the Spring Equinox. I'm aware that tikis he astronomical first day, some recognise different days.

In the Northern Hemisphere, in the temperate zone, Spring symbolizes rebirth and happy days to come.  Snow has melted in most area,

It is a time to celebrate that we survived the winter and have a chance to replenish,

We should also remember that the Earth is precious and in need of protection.  

First Values

 One value I grew up with is a pretty old one, keep you nose out of other people's business.  It was a good value and generally those who violated it paid a price.  This didn't mean you couldn't be  little nosy or engage in gossip, simply not to interfere unless there was an extraordinary reason.

Clearly, some people were up to no good but getting involved was usually a mistake.  I think this is sort of the essence of city life.  You can certainly try to make things better for everyone by donating or possibly stopping a fight if you could, but getting too involved in individuals' lives was not something you did.

Most of the people I grew up with accepted their neighbors without trying to judge them.  Almost all them became Democrats although over time some changed.  We lived with a diverse group of neighbors, in those days mostly Irish, Italian, Jewish, etc. It didn't matter, although in some ways it did.  

I imagine, if you grew up in a small town, you didn't have this diversity.  I really don't know personally, i grew up in a crowed city. Still based on TV shows and some movies it seems like uniformity was the value there.  Go to the same church, school, work in the local industry, etc.  Being different was not desireable.

The values you learn earliest seem to be the ones that stay with you the longest.  I don't understand how so many Americans think they have the right to control their neighbors.  

They shouldn't.

Poor Attack Strategies

 I find it hard to understand how anyone not under Russia's control could look at the situation in Ukraine and think the nvasion was justified.  I'm not saying Russia has no legitimate position, the expansion of NATO could in their view threaten their security, but the response to that is not an invasion.

The fact that we have some people defending the Russian actions.  If we had a declared war they would be guilty of lending support to the enemy.  What is also clear is that our "loyal" opposition is very opposed to the President getting any credit for dealin with a dnagerous situation and in effect stoppin this dictator, even if only temporarily.

The whole world expected the Russian to role over the Ukrainians.  They didn't and most of the world has united behind the brave resistance being put up.  The actions of our administration has been helpful and the people looking for things to attack are also getting a bit desperate.

The Will of the Majority?

 It's actually pretty simple, let every legal vote count.  What we are seeing are attempts to define "legal" to exclude votes that should count but are not for the "right" candidate.

In a Democracy we have times when we lose elections.  The impact of this really depends on just how different the policies are.  When I was young one major complaint was that the two major parties were basically the same.  This was viewed in a negative way by those trying to change the system.  

The problem now is that the two major parties have irreconcilable differences.  

When we had both parties run by party bosses, they ended up very close on many issues as they tried to win over voters by satisfying the majority of Americans. This didn't appeal to the fringe voters who felt unrepresented.

We now have a system where primaries determine a lot of policies.  Primaries if everyone voted would represent the opinions of the majority.  However, the apathy and lack of interest in primaries has led to radical fringes becoming dominant.

Not at all reflective of the populace in general.  

What was the more democratic system?

Headlines

 One of the things about the world we live in is that information bombards you.  There is so much information that if you try to read a lot of it, you spend your day quickly and get through a small amount.  So, I, and I think most people, scan headlines and pick the topics to read about.

The headlines of topics I don't read still leave an impression, and based on what I do read, probably a misleading one.  For example, there was a headline today about how builder's sentiment dropped drastically because interest rates were up.  The story was accurate I think showing sentiment dropped from over 80 to around 70, the biggest drop in many years.  What sort of hurt the impression from the headline was that anything over 50 was a positive indicator.

So builders went from very, very optimistic to only very optimistic.  Not what the headline implied.

Its hard to find a positive headline because I guess negative headlines grab more attention.  Oil prices have been dropping because the cut off of Russian oil has been low impact.  So right under a headline pointing that out, there was another headline about an analyst for an oil industry monitor saying the cut off of Russian Oil could be the biggest shock to the Oil supply ever experienced.  It had a lot of math about how much Russia exports and yes if it all got cur off, it would be pretty drastic, but the reality is very different.

So the problem is that just scanning headlines, like we pretty much have to do will leave and overall negative picture of what's happening.  That's not accurate.  There are always problems or potential problems but overall things are actually going pretty well.

. 

Benefits Of Technology

 Years ago, I was at a presentation about how technology was going to greatly improve our productivity.  The way that was going to happen was the elimination of many low skill, entry level jobs and of course the people who worked them.

Now this was geared to office work so certainly the people eliminated tended to be those working in typing pools, stenos, data input, etc.  They did have skills, generally typing and maybe stenography.  It all happened.

In general, those jobs no longer exist and for the most part the "professional" staff became responsible for that work. This trend continued and resulted in nearly a 50% reduction in staff.  Since the jobs being eliminated were lower paying, costs didn't go down at the same rate.

This tremendous increase in productivity was equaled in the manufacturing sectors as well.  The benefits of all these savings did result in some lower costs to the consumer but a lot of it led to the wealth inequality we now see.  

Technology should have benefitted everybody, and to some extent it did.  It just did do so equally.

Freedom Improving?

 Is the world becoming a better place over time?  I guess first you have to decide what better is/ Some people, and maybe the majority, aren't looking to change things.  If you believe that we are part of God's pan and men should toil and women should bear children, many changes are unwelcome.

On the other hand, if you believe each individual should be allowed to be their best person then change is needed.  

It's hard to judge the world as a whole.  In fairly progressive counties we have seen an expansion of certain freedoms followed by a negative reaction.  Each country has its own challenges.  Much of the middle east is reverting to fundamentalism.  This is generally not good news for non-traditional lifestyles.

Clearly some of the progress made is still sticking at least for now.  

Finding Blame

 We like to place blame for things.  There often isn't any real reason too, but it makes us feel better.

Did chamberlain enable Hitler at Munich?  Maybe he did, but had he rejected the deal would things have gone differently?  Who is responsible for inflation or high gas prices, Biden?  Almost definitely not but it plays well with the right wing of this country.

On the other hand people also like to attribute big things to odd causes.  Do butterflies flapping their wings lead to tornados.  

We waste a lot of time and effort to determine causes and fault when by that time it already happened.  In the military the debriefing relates to avoiding the same problem in the future.  It can work, but that depends.  The British Navy during the age of sail only engaged when the wind was favorable to them.  This seems like a policy all the Navies would have followed but I guess they did it better.

Sometimes the inquiry is to punish the offenders.  Some are designed to discredit the innocent.

Sometimes they accomplish nothing at all.

Innocents Dying in Ukraine

 The main thing I know about the war in Ukraine is that innocent people are dying because of it.  I don't mean to imply that the soldiers dying are guilty of anything, although they may be, but the expanding shelling is causing death to people who had no part in this.

The other thing I know is that the Russians are in Ukraine, not the other way around.  Now of course in war one army is normally in foreign space.  There was and is no indicator that Ukraine was doing anything to hurt Russia, except to act independently.  I can see how trying to join NATO could be viewed by a paranoid Dictator as a provocation.  We adhere to the principles of the Monroe Doctrine which is in all honesty a presumptuous policy that is only enforceable if we are stronger than those violating it. 

It was in effect a statement of support for the ex-Spanish colonies.  

Russia under Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union.  It won't happen and in fact he may have doomed his regime.  

Will Russians except the consequences of the sanctions?  

We will see.

Ukraine Escalation?

 Russia under Putin seems to be escalating the war.  They are becoming more brutal and attacking more cities.  While it seems unlikely that Ukraine can withstand an al out assault, they do have some advantages.

The vast majority of the population seems to be opposed to Russian occupation.  I think Putin thought that they might welcome it since they had been part of the USSR.  I gather they don't remember it the same way he does.

I'm also not sure if he has as much support at home as he thinks he does.  I don't know if he has managed to recreate the days of Stalin and the suppression of his own population.  

While Russia seems to have the military firepower, they are fighting a country with a resistant population.  How much destruction is he willing to do?

Inflation Still High

 Inflation measured against a year ago continues to be high, reaching levels last seen 40 years ago.  Clearly energy was a big contributor   Food also was higher, but we saw some indications that supply chain issues are easing.

We are reaching a period where last year we saw significant month over month increases.  As the historical pace of inflation increased, the year over year increase measured today will get smaller.  Theat might be deceptive as the factors influencing current inflation are unchanged.

We are seeing the increased impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine  

It adds risk and risk results in more volatility as people seek less risky investments.

Oil Production

 It might be important to point out that at this time there is no shortage of oil or refined oil products.  Wat drives the price of oil on the futures market is speculation over the future supply and demand.  

When the pandemic hit and shutdowns were imposed worldwide the price of oil plummeted which was good for gas prices but bad for the suppliers who lost billions.  This led to a change in operations which led to a reduction in risk calculations.

Drilling was reduced to more sure fire projects and wells that were not profitable enough were shut down.  So when the economy started to boom oil supply could not increase quickly enough.

This resulted in a jump in price to about pre-pandemic levels.  This was not related to Government policies but to private company business decisions.  Yes the administration cancelled a pipeline that was controversial, but that did not eliminate the Canadian oil just a cheap way to transport it.

The loss of Russian oil impacts the risk equation and supply forecast.  Will the supply increase?  Yes, but slower because of risk uncertainty.  There are other sources of supply that worry drillers so they will not overinvest.

Oil prices will stabalize, it will take a minute or two.

Thoughts

 In many ways the American voter, and all others probably, are fairly simplistic.  If things get better they re-elect the incumbents, and vice versa.

There is a lot of good news but the overriding issue is the dramatic increase in gasoline prices.  The reasons for the increase are complex but the Russian attack on the Ukraine has driven the price of oil up.  

What you saw was a steep drop in demand during the pandemic followed by a robust increase as the recovery took hold and not an abrupt jump due to the Ukraine situation.

Biden's not running for re-election until 2024.  If we saddle him win with an unfriendly congress. It will be a period of little progress.

Real Intelligence?

 I tend to have limited exposure to the current breed of conspiracy theorists, partly on purpose but every so often it happens.  The question is how do people we consider intelligent spout some of the stupidest things?

Maybe it says more about us than about them.   It makes me think of how you try to promote people with perspective, not just people who work hard.

When you interview candidates there is an interaction that usually leads you to the best candidate.  When you ask five people an interview question that requires some thought, the answers will range from the bland to the interesting.  What you are looking for, or at least what I was looking for, is an answer that makes you think by providing a new, valid perspective.  

I'm not talking about purely mechanical positions, promotions usually put people in leadership roles.  Some people ae clearly not ready for that, people who often seem capable and intelligent.  

What you realize is that many candidates don't possess any real critical thinking tools.  They want to be told what to believe and exactly what you want them to do.  They are intelligent enough to "pass" but they are easily swayed.  They don't understand why they don't get selected and if you discuss it with them they tend to argue they got the answers right.  There were no right answers really.  

They need alternate explanations for their failures and are ready for someone who explains it all, no matter how crazy the answers are.  

So are they intelligent?  Not on the level that really matters, but they can do certain things.  

Fix the Police

 Sometimes a protest is clearly worth having, although the way the protest played out might be problematic.  Last year, after some atrocious deaths of unarmed black men, we had the Back Lives matter protests demanding justice for out black citizens.

The protests were widespread but persisted in some areas longer than in others.  Some seemed t take advantage of the protests to cause property damage and loot.  

That is inexcusable but the great majority of protesters were peaceful looking for justice.  Whatever you think about racism in America there is enough of it to make those protests right wing attack points.  Some of the organizers came up with a slogan about defunding the police.  

It's a terrible slogan since we absolutely need police.  A better one would have been Fix The Police, which is clearly what is needed.  Not all police are bad and not all victims are innocent. What seems to have gone wrong is that the police in many areas adopted self preservation as a goal when the only goal they should have is protect the populace.

If you know police you are likely to have heard stories about the danger they face. These are real but the answer isn't to make it just as dangerous, or more so, for innocent unarmed black men.  

Yes they account for a lot of crime as a group but each one needs the protection of the law, which is represented by the police.  What reforms are need to recue those risks is a matter of debate.

Protecting the populace isn't.

State of the Union Speech

 At some point we have decided the State of the Union speech is political in nature and not a report to congress assembled.  Essentially the report, mandated by law is similar to a CEO providing his board of directors and his shareholders a status report.

The idea that we allow a formal rebuttal strikes me as absurd and I don't watch them.  There is plenty of opportunity after the report to raise questions and challenge factual statements.  It just seems to me that our chief executive should be allowed to make his report without the appearance of a second government.

We live in an era when politics has become more important than actual issues.   Each congressman and senator are supposed to be an independent representative of his district or State. When they simply vote along party lines on most issues it's hard to believe they are.

I'm also a bit tired of the media, except generally the right-wing media, acting like both sides engage in similar behavior.  Take the outburst that interrupted the speech trying to accuse the President of putting the Marines in Afghanistan in danger.  They are always in danger when deployed and while the incident at the airport was a bit of a fiasco, the commanders in the field set up the scenario.  What the President did was get us out of an expensive and costly (in lives lost) war.  No marines are currently in danger in Afghanistan.  

Job well done.

Economic News

 We continue to generate lots of jobs and see productivity and wages growing.  Yes, oil is way up but we see events causing that.

There has been some increase in food prices, but with an exception for specific events, I haven't seen dramatic increases.  I see people post things on-line that sound disastrous but if they are experiencing 100% increases in the cost of food, I don't know why.

I actually think I have seen some prices coming down, at least the sale items.

What we know is that labor is getting wage increases.  That will have an impact of the cost of many things.  Oil is used to transport many items and that increase is going to be paid. 

I would prefer that prices stay low but these increases were almost inevitable as the economy roared back.

For those seeing these tremendous increases, it is possible that the local merchants are taking advantage of the situation.  

Sacrifice?

 One of the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russians has been a disruption to the oil supply and increased prices.  It adds to inflation and hits our pocketbooks but it's nothing like the disaster hitting the Ukrainian people and the Russian soldiers sent on the invasion.

I imagine Putin expected a quick victory, followed by installing a friendly regime and a celebration about how he pushed NATO off his doorstep.  That's not what he got.

The Ukrainian people are showing the world their desire to be free and democratic.  Whatever happens going forward they deserve a lot of credit.

We Americans will continue to complain about gas prices.  We could also use more fuel-efficient vehicles but that would apparently be too much of an imposition.

Progress

 Reports out of Ukraine indicate that many of the Russian troops don't want to be there and have surrendered in units and potentially sabotaged some of their equipment.  I think Putin is going to keep raising the stakes if there isn't a safe (for him) path out.

He never expected the West to unite and impose such serious sanctions on him and Russia.  His economy is in real trouble and his "allies" are dwindling.  No one, including his own people bought his propaganda and in today's age of communication, you can't really continue to lie to the people.

You can keep lying but your lies will only be accepted by you loyal followers and after a while not even them.  

In last night's State of the Union we saw positive and truthful messaging promising a brighter future for America. Not that things are that bad now, we have a booming economy, plenty of jobs, increasing wages and a virus that seems under control for the most part.  Yes there is inflation and oil and gas are expensive, but steps are being taken to solve those problems.  We even have an administration attacking Climate Change and attempting sensible border control and crime control.

Providing the police, the resources to do their job the right way is the best solution.  

Let's figure out how to work together and not fight for no reason.

Doubling Down

 Unfortunately, Putin, like most Dictators will double down on his attempts overrun the Ukraine.  Whether he wil be able to do that is probably likely but not certain.  What is pretty certain is that it will result in more deaths to fulfil his ego.

No matter the outcome he has already lost a lot, in his prestige, his economy and his ability to maintain control.  Hardly the genius he presents he fell into a trap that has consumed many before him, overconfidence.  

Soe of the biggest examples involved invasions of Russia, not invasions by Russia.  He is now engaged in the quagmire of invasion and occupation while the sanctions imposed are ruining his economy.

The deaths he is causing is his sin.

They will catch up with him.