Yesterday I was discussing how the parties have become more and more polarized as they respond to the fringe elements in their base. This is because so many Americans don't vote, either in the regular election or even more so in the primaries. The candidates who argued that the system was rigged were correct in a certain way, but it is really rigged in the favor of fringe candidates.
Number of people who voted in the primaries is being reported as 9% of all voting age Americans. This number could actually be representative if it was actually a valid sample of all voters. However it isn't, the ones who vote the most are those with a cause who want to express their point of view. If you are fairly content with things with a busy life, voting is a chore that you decide isn't worth it, especially in primaries.
The only way to fix this would be to make voting easier and rewarding. Unfortunately, having more people vote is not in the self interest of many of our elected officials who got elected by one or more of these fringe elements, especially at the local and state level. Consider the math. If you are in a state or district that always votes for one party you simply have to win that party's primary to get elected. So few people vote in primaries that you need to appeal to one or two fringe groups who will get out and vote for you. This path to success has been followed by many who have to maintain support by catering to the base that supported them and by keeping voting levels low.
In the Republican primaries none of the mainstream candidates lasted very long. Remember that Ted Cruz is by no means mainstream, he got elected by the tea party and evangelical fringe groups. Donald Trump is clearly not mainstream, and in fact has upset the party because he has created a whole new fringe group, angry people.
Are most Americans angry? I don't think so, but some are very angry as they lost high paying jobs in manufacturing or mining. They see an America that is becoming more inclusive which they view as curtailing their prior privileged position (it doesn't). They voted for prior candidates who made promises they couldn't keep even if they meant them and they feel betrayed.
How big is this group? I really don't know but its sizable and when energized can dominate primaries where so few people actually vote. Its not just Republicans, the angry Democrats have different issues, student debt, worthless college degrees, banks that are too big to fail but they are also angry. They made an impact and had the Sanders campaign got organized earlier we could be faced with a Trump vs Sanders general election.
As it is we have Trump vs Clinton. Republicans have always vilified the Clintons mainly because they keep losing to them. Of course they also vilify Obama but by now that's a bit meaningless.
If we want to fix the election process we have to make voting in primaries and regular elections easier and more inclusive. Unfortunately I don't see any real effort in that direction.
More to come.
Jim
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