The Future

We certainly need to improve testing and research about the new virus but based on recent history and what science tells us, it is likely that new viruses will continue to mutate from old ones every few years.

Some will be worse than others but clearly the world can't simply stop whenever that happens.

Yes we dealt with SARS and  MERS better but this disease is highly infectious and spread outside of containment quickly.

Perhaps going forward we will need to incorporate some of these protective measures into our day-to-day routines.

One thing about this virus is clear, we reacted to it the way we did because of our scientific knowledge.

I don't know how bad it is going to get but as bad as it is now would probably have been considered a bad flu season if we didn't know better.

Its Just Nature

People who believe in supernatural beings treat them like a force of nature.

Sure they may dislike the behavior of some people but the retribution impacts the good people as well.

In the bible before the destruction of Sodom and Gamora the challenge was to find 10 good men, I guess in those days women didn't count.  We are led to believe the entire population was involved in the attempt to seize the angels but that cannot be so since that group was blinded and the next day Lot found his future sons-in-law who were apparently not blind.  Still the city was destroyed and his wife died because she took a look back which was prohibited.

Really?  These are the acts of the Nazis in occupied Europe when you think about them.

Of course we have other recorded events such as the great flood and the tower of babel that clearly reveal his benevolent nature not to mention multiple instances where he punished one group or another for the sin of being or not being one of the favored people.

What is documented in the Bible, often copied from other ancient works are explanations for things that were simply incomprehensible to those that experienced them.

Volcanos, floods, wars and famine are things we can't control so we invent someone who can control them we can appease.

Of course these acts are mostly random so our efforts to appease often fail, which of course must be our fault.

Nature is what it is and it doesn't work in mysterious ways, it simply is uncaring.

Our species has been on this planer for a very small period since it was formed and we may not be on it very much longer as we destroy our environment.

Nature and the planet just don't care.

Lack of Testing Was the Problem

Covid19. a potentially lethal virus has infected tens of thousands of Americans and yet every day the headline is ""US Death Toll From Corona Virus exceeds 1,000".

Since there is no miraculous cure or new treatment, we are pretty much guaranteed that the number will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

Its sad that people are dying but unfortunately everyday in this country people die from multiple causes.

In fact its close to 8000 people a day.

Many of the deaths were in people who were already high risk for other factors.

The question that is hard to answer is how lethal is this virus really?

Part of the problem is that we are only testing in most countries people who display symptoms and mostly people with fairly serious symptoms.  This has led to mortality rates that are clearly inflated.

Analyzing the data we see that South Korea, which was exposed to the virus early on has managed to control it with much less disruption to its day to day society. Its methods relied on testing and contact isolation, meaning that if someone tested positive, everyone who may have come in contract with him/her was asked to get tested.  This identification led to the best containment of the virus to date but also because of the extended testing a large number of asymptomatic people were identified resulting in a lower fatality rate.

Germany which is at an earlier stage of the outbreak is also demonstrating that widespread testing has led to a much lower fatality rate than other European countries.  Of course since the virus is still very active, things could change, but I believe the data is indicative of an actual fatality rate below 1%.

No onw knows how many untested people have an asymptomatic or mild symptom infection.  Since we don't test them they are still infecting others, some of whom will develop serious symptoms and possibly die.

We have effectively adopted a strategy that assumes everybody is a potential carrier and requires everyone to isolate or social distance themselves.  An investment is test kits could have allowed the economy to continue since could have identified the carriers.

Too late now.

Silver Lining?

I'm not a big believer in supernatural intervention but sometimes nature leads to a result that seems almost directed.

For example we live in a complex world with complex creatures.  On one hand some argue that the complexity of these creatures is evidence of a creator because someone had to design these creatures who fit so well into the natural world.

Of course the same situation supports the theory of evolution, because those who survived had the best adaptations for where they lived.

Its hard to imagine the complex interactions at times until you consider the vase scope of time and the endless opportunities presented.

Whatever way you lean, either supernatural or natural, the result is that survival requires harmony with our surroundings.

Unfortunately being so prevalent on the planet we have become an organism which offers opportunities to invasive viruses and bacterium.

So these outbreaks are going to continue and potentially get worse as the organisms improve by evolving.

Still, understanding how having a potentially deadly virus isn't desirable, I wonder how many lives are being saved by the reduced air pollution and road travel.

Its also reducing the carbon emissions that are leading to a warming of the planet.

These impacts are most likely short term, but even so I'm sure someone can statistically compute how many lives or illnesses are being avoided in the future.

Maybe some good can come from this.

Just Wondering?

One of the things that is just so hard to determine is just how dangerous Covid19 actually is.

In Northern Italy where the death rate is reported as the highest in the world, it is also clear that the number of infected people is greatly undercounted.  Same is true in China.

Without knowing how many people are actually infected it is impossible to get an accurate mortality rate.

It doesn't kill you quickly.  Reading about the Spanish flu you see stories about people getting sick and dying the same day.  Other differences are the people who were most afflicted.

The Covid19 virus is most dangerous in older people or others with weak immune systems.  The Spanish Flu was most dangerous among young people with strong immune systems. In both cases some of the worst damage is actually related to the body's attempt to fight the virus off,   It would seem they should be similar, but apparently not.

Still consider the latest news on flu and COVID-Covid19 from the CDC.

ATLANTA (Gray News) – Flu-like activity is up in the United States this week, but its severity is moderate to low overall, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Friday.

The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 23,000 deaths from flu, 38 million flu illnesses and 390,000 hospitalizations.  

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*

• Total cases: 33,404
• Total deaths: 400

For the first one we effectively have ignored it for the second we have effectively shut down the country.

Now I realize the COVID-19 is on the rise,and we as yet do not have an effective way to combat it.  Still, I wonder if it was in fact necessary to react like we did when possibly it just would have required some simple precautions to protect us.

What Next?

One of the problems that has always existed with Democracy, is that people who don't care much and don't stay informed get to have just as much say in things as people who do care and who stay informed.

Our founding fathers debated this and tried to restrict the vote to property owners.  It took many years and a civil war to expand the franchise to all citizens although so many don't seem to care.

There are measurable times in history where a democratic vote resulted in an absolute tragedy.

Still while at times it seems like a horrible system, it is still better than all the rest.

Which brings us to the current panic over the Covid19 virus.

The virus has entered our society and enough of the population to probably be with us forever.  Hopefully we will develop better treatments and a vaccine and it will be relegated to the same status as the Flu which is still a deadly disease for many.

We have primaries and general elections that need to be conducted and obviously we need to maintain our economy and provide essential items.  We also need to continues non-essential industries to provide jobs and income as well as need products.

We are in a shutdown with the hopes that it will slow the spread but whether it does or doesn't we need to plan for societies return to normalcy, perhaps with some additional precautions.

We can certainly expand our virtual interactions, including how we vote, do our jobs, and attend classes.  Obviously many things have to be done in person and I would think the use of hand sanitizer and masks may be the new normal.

There are some clear benefits to these changes, less pollution, less traffic, less disease transmission.

Will Covid19 still be with us?  Probably but so is the Flu and other infectious viruses.

In the scheme of our human history, we've seen worse and moved on.

This Is About You, Not Them

Almost everyone, while probably not infected has been impacted by the Covid19 virus and we are all eager to get the most accurate information.

I've watched a number of the press conferences, if that's the right term, that occur every afternoon now and where we get misinformation from the President sometimes corrected by the experts he allows to talk.

He keeps harping on how perfect his response has been when clearly he is easily contradicted by video showing how wrong he was.

I don't even fault him for getting it wrong, although he was briefed about the virus, but just acting like that wasn't his words and actions is the sign of a mental or personality disorder.

Its like he has never learned to accept responsibility for his actions, similar to how a toddler responds when caught doing something wrong.

I originally didn't think this virus was going to be a big deal and clearly it is.

I don't know if it is going to be as bad as some previous pandemics, the Spanish Flu comes to mind, but we have a lot of cases and clearly our health system is unprepared for it.

Which makes me think about a quote I heard from a health official on some show about the virus.

He says hospitals work on "Just in Time" inventory.

That has become the linchpin of modern management theory and it helps explain many of the shortages that we see.  Excess inventory, defined as anything you stock that can be supplied before you need it is a form of waste.  The theory is a wonderful thing when supply lines are functioning.

Not so great if the supply chain has a problem, which is likely now.

How much backup supply or capacity do you need normally is based on assumptions that things stay normal.

Should we prepare for events like this?  It would cost a lot of money, but because we aren't we will have casualties among our population.

How much value do you put on your life or that of your loved ones?

Adjust to the New Normal?

We need to start preparing for the assumption that this pandemic may last quite a while.

Since we are not willing to risk returning to normal life, at least not yet, we need to consider how to operate in social distancing mode.

Distance learning and working for those who can may become more routine.

Obviously some things require people to be present and perhaps protective gear such as masks can reduce infections.

It isn't much of a stretch to require masks in public once we have enough to go around.

How effective they are is more the question.

We have elections coming up and certainly with a little imagination we can do that safely.

At home voting, masks and social distancing with extended voting hours can certainly give everyone an opportunity to participate.

Perhaps all of this will simply pass before then, but maybe it won't.

I guess there is a bit of a silver lining in some of this as pollution and carbon emissions are way down at least temporarily.

Not the ideal way to approach that problem, but they say the effect in noticeable in China and Italy.

Make What We Need

Hopefully some of the dire predictions about the virus will not come true and it is important to remember that by most estimates about 80% of the people contracting it show no or minor symptoms.

Of course that is also very dangerous as those people can spread the virus almost by stealth.

It is important to follow the guidelines because of simple math.

Whatever the actual mortality rate is, it increases as the number of infected grow.

It may of course end up being higher here than it should because our health care system is simply not prepared with things like protective gear and ventilators.

They need to be produced in large quantities since inevitably there will be an influx of people needing them as the virus progresses.

Possibly the measures being taken can "flatten" the curve resulting in fewer near term cases, but having too many ventilators is certainly better than not having enough.

Its a no brainer.

Need for TP

Well at least for now the virus seems to have subsided somewhat in China but is still infecting more people in other countries.

What is uncertain, especially in the United States, is whether more people are catching the virus or if its just more testing?

It will take quite a bit of analysis to determine how many were actually infected, how many developed symptom, how many developed serious symptoms and how many died.

The numbers we see reported are obviously only how many are known positive from test results.  If test kits were widely available it would be interesting to preform random tests and track what percentage are positive for the virus.

We now know that the President was pretending he thought the virus was a hoax since he now admits he knew it was a Pandemic before anyone else.

I suspect he is the reason Americans feel the need to stockpile toilet paper since he spreads so much BS everywhere.

Time to Unite

Some people are just obstinate, convinced that they are the only ones who know what is best.

I suspect Bernie Sanders and many of his followers are in that group.

The problem is that as the voters continue to send him a resounding message he will continue to contend with no chance of success trying to impose his positions on the Democratic party.

Now you may agree with his positions or you may not and it is certainly something that should be considered for the platform.  However what seems like a "my way or the highway" attitude doesn't do anybody any good.

It may have given us Trump four years ago and could maybe do that again.

I was watching one of his supporters on an analysis show talk about how the "Establishment" needed to listen to the voices of his followers or suffer the consequences.  Well maybe his followers need to listen to the vast majority of Democrats and realize they are in the minority.

Failure to participate in Democracy is dangerous and its time to unite and press forward.

They seem to have a divide and be conquered attitude.

Believe and work for what you want but listen to the voice of the people, even if you think they are wrong.

They aren't.

If You Sneeze - Don't Panic!

I imagine the onset of spring allergies is going to result in even more panic as we deal with the Coronavirus pandemic.

The disease its real no one has immunity.  Of course that isn't actually comforting but it is accurate.

Still is it the end of the world?  No, we have lived through this and worse in our human history.

Of course in the past we didn't have all the warnings and predictions that we have no so we would simply have to suffer through a bad season and deal with it.

To some extent this might be different and worse, but no one knows which is partly the problem.

Because of the lack of test kits we really don't know how extensive the infection already is and the best approach to containment.

We also don't know the actual mortality rate since the actual number of people infected is unknowable.

Certainly it does point out how we and other countries are not prepared to deal with an influx of patients.

The problem as I see it is that very likely the virus has already spread into multiple communities and many of its victims don't know they have it.

If you think back to the AIDS crisis, all people had to do was avoid unprotected sexual contact and it wasn't terribly successful.

Maybe we are better at staying six feet apart nowadays, certainly more of us are becoming semi-virtual.

Still it just seems to me like the only ultimate outcome is that the virus run its course and the population builds up an immunity.

I could be wrong.

Moving Forward

One of the things that needs to happen in this country is a switch from private to public for things like health insurance, pensions, education.

Our citizens need to be allowed to live their lives productively but also with a safety net since some of the old safety nets have disappeared.

Take health care.  Employer provided health care worked for many but has a fundamental flaw, it requires an employer.  Make no mistake, the cost of this was included in the products we buy, Employers have no other source of funds.  Of course Employers need to maximize profits and as the cost of health care grew, it became a target for cuts, both in contributions and deductibles.  While the Affordable Care Act normalized requirements and basic coverages, it is still a bit of a crap shoot that becomes almost a matter of chance.  Everyone should have access to a basic level of coverage no matter where they work or if they work at all.  How to achieve this is negotiable.

Similarly everyone should have a basic level of retirement they can rely on.  Social Security was designed to supplement Employee defined benefit plans, many of which have vanished.  Further Social Security itself is starting to run out of funds and it needs to be stabilized and improved.

As a country we have generally provided free public education through high school, but the quality has varied greatly based on location and economics.  Its time to extend that to include merit based higher education that doesn't leave our students facing a lifetime of debt.  Education is the key to our countries future and it needs to be a priority.

Of course there are other issues that we need to address, there always are.  Climate Change is a danger to our entire planet and is not some sort of hoax.  Those who still are contributing to the problem should have to pay for the damage they cause.  Economic incentives are the simplest way to motivate change.

Paying for these things requires an adjustment to our tax system and a reprioritization of where we want to spend our money.  After the Cold War we were able to reduce defense spending and actually eliminate the deficit.  We need to do something similar today.

The country needs to move together to improve everyone's life.

Its why it exists.

Natural Things

The story of most creatures on this planet is not a kind one.  Nature isn't cruel or kind, its simply uncaring.

The struggle for survival is universal and if a species doesn't succeed it disappears.

Those that succeed influence the next generations and pass on the extra strength or extra speed or extra intelligence that enable them to succeed.

Occasionally a species finds itself in a situation where it doesn't have to compete, notably the Dodo bird at one time.  It never developed evasive or even flight responses and it was fairly quickly wiped out when a predator showed up, namely us.

We like to think that humans are above this, that somehow we have mastered nature and don't have to worry about being prey, at least generally.

Then we see a virus come along like the corona one and we panic.

I certainly understand that we don't want to be infected but I also find myself agreeing with the dotard that the flu is probably as deadly and we pretty much ignore it every year.

It may be too early to tell but this new strain doesn't seem particularly virulent and I think its mostly the fact that it is new that is causing all the alarm.

Yes, it will kill a share of the population, primarily those with compromised immune systems because of age or other reasons, and they should exercise extreme caution.  Of course that is also true of the various flu viruses circulating.

There are much worse diseases out there.

Win Votes or Go Home

My state hasn't had its primary yet and by the time it does it might not really matter.

Some of the candidates who are no longer running would have been strong contenders for my vote, and having lost that opportunity is a bit unfortunate.

It seems to me, although I may obviously be wrong, that we are going to pick the long time, long serving Democrat who represents the majority beliefs of most Democrats.

This is of course disappointing to some in the party who feel that too many Democrats and Americans are too "conservative" in their views.

Well they are entitled to their view but they are not entitled to enforce it on others.

You hear a lot of talk about the Democratic establishment, whatever that might mean.  It has become another way of blaming "them" for things you don't like.

Ultimately its the primary voters who are deciding and its a bit insulting to act like they are making choices directed by someone else.

Each of them gets to evaluate the messages and vote for the candidate of their choice.  The idea that they are forced by some establishment to vote a certain way is patently absurd.

Obviously there are all sorts of attempts to sway them form expensive TV ads to the ideological appeals.

Ultimately they get to vote and if you don't provide the message they want to hear, they aren't voting for you.

Its pretty simple.

Dplorable In Chief

It doesn't get asked often enough and its something that his supporters probably know but have decided to ignore but much of the opposition to our current President is simply because he is a despicable human being.

It is hard to find any redeeming qualities in him or his life.

He grew up a spoiled brat.  His parents sent him to military school to no avail.

He avoided serving in the Military using a phony medical excuse.

He used his father's money to get started and worked with some of the shadier elements in New York real estate.

His successes were generally overblown and he cultivated press coverage.

He has many failed business enterprises and ultimately was saved by being on a successful reality show.

He's never demonstrated the ability to be trustworthy or reliable in his personnel life and has disrespected women throughout his life.

He has become an insult expert which would be amusing in a comic but which is not how most people view a President.

He lies continuously and when caught lies more.

He claims to be an expert in things he clearly knows almost nothing about.  He just uses lies to pretend he knew things he didn't.

He has no problem with attacking anyone he thinks weren't loyal enough to him.

He abuses his post for personal gain and thinks its ok.

The list can go on further but no need to.  His policies are dangerous and his claims about the economy are self serving and generally not accurate.

It really is time to get him out and restore dignity to the Oval office.

Wht Panic?

When you watch certain movies or TV shows it depicts an unknown virus that decimates the human population or even worse turns them into zombies.

We have become aware of this danger and tend to believe it is a likely scenario.

Now there have been horrible plagues in our past some of which decimated large swaths of the population.  Obviously there could be a pathogen as dangerous or even more dangerous develop.

Of course we have come to understand the causes and have a much better idea of the causes of infection and how to avoid them.

Still we as humans have a tendency to overreact and to some extent panic.

The latest example is the coronavirus which has nothing to do with the beer.

It is essentially a virus that results in flu like symptoms and an unknown death rate.

When I say unknow, the estimates are somewhere between 2 and 3% but clearly until we have better testing we only can calculate a rate based on known cases.  Since its likely many cases were undiagnosed because the symptoms were mild or people self treated assuming a cold or flu it is almost certainly lower.

It could actually be similar to flu rates, but there simply isn't enough data.

We don't panic over the flu even though it kills 10s of thousands of people every year.  Yes we have a vaccine which helps somewhat, but even so flu is just something we accept.

Coronavirus isn't the end of the world as we know it, its just a new virus that joins a long list of viruses that can infect us.

Common sense, good hygiene and safe practices are the best we can do until a vaccine becomes available.

Its Not A Revolution, Its Democracy

We just saw a resurgence of what I consider common sense prevail on Super Tuesday.

One of the problems with many revolutions, if not all of them, is that the organizers are totally convinced about the righteousness of their beliefs.

That's not to say they aren't addressing real issues, but in revolution after revolution, you see overreaction if successful.

Its sort of like a religious fervor where everyone who disagrees with you is in fact the enemy.

Of course this behavior often ends up in a Dictatorship where dissent is simply not allowed.

That is not to say that there weren't or aren't real issues that need to be fixed, but if you look at how Russia dealt with its pre-war inequality, the results were pretty bleak for many people, most of whom were not evil.

Yes we need to deal with Climate Change but we need to reach a solution that is doable and aggressive.  If your opinion is its our way or the highway, I think you need to calm down.  Fight for the solutions you want but accept that you might have to accept some compromise, or lost the chance at any progress.

Similarly we need to provide health care to all but there is more than one approach.  Medicare is a wonderful program but it certainly isn't perfect.  If you have decided capitalism is evil, you might want to reconsider the country you inhabit.

Every issue requires a solution that is acceptable to the majority of Americans.  Its what we call democracy.  If you think they don't understand, educate don't berate.

If you believe in progressive values I hope you learned the lesson of 2016.  If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with.

At least for Politics.

Who Is Behind It?

One thing that is pretty clear is that the majority of the Democrats voting today and most likely the majority of Republicans agree on some important issues.

For example the availability of affordable health care.

A fair tax system.

Maintaining Social Security.

Protecting the country.

A fair immigration system.

Equal justice for all.

The details of how to achieve these things are sometimes in dispute but not the goals.

Unfortunately the level of discourse in this country has become hostile and greatly exaggerated.

We see positions depicted as much more extreme than they are, sometimes based on actual individual events.

If some school or homeowners association does something, it represents what they think no what everyone thinks.

Who doesn't want to see homeless Veterans get the help they need?  I imagine everyone does but the issue is more complicated than just helping them, especially when our mental health facilities are so underfunded.

Who wouldn't like everyone in America to have a good job?  If anyone it would be the owners of businesses who maximize profits at the cost of those jobs.

When I talk people of pretty much any political belief we fundamentally agree on almost everything. 

It seems obvious that the acrimony is created by the people who profit from it and they don't all live in this country.