A Younger Electorate?

One of the fundamental shifts that is likely to happen in this and future elections is the impact of younger and diverse voters.

 

This group which is traditionally more liberal if not radical has always had strong opinions but a poor voting record.  I don't want to speculate on the reason but movements that have depended on young voters have traditionally been let down by the turnout.

 

Just this primary season the Bernie Sanders campaign put a lot of eggs in that basket and it didn't work out.

 

So why is this likely to change?

 

Maybe it won't, but the signs are there that it is more likely than not.

 

The recent events such as the virus response and the protests over racial injustice have had an impact. Still will they show up to vote?

 

That's possibly the most significant change, they might not have to.  The actual process of voting may have been a part of the problem.  Many young people are likely to think "my vote isn't going to make a difference, I'll go have fun instead".  Is that accurate?  Maybe not but voting is inconvenient and since they traditionally haven't shown up, it might be as good a reason as any.

 

Make voting more convenient and they are so much more likely to do it, as are the rest of us for that matter.  This year with the virus we see a lot of primaries that surprise.  Certainly not all of them but the number of votes cast by mail and the results have tended to reflect a younger viewpoint.

 

Its one of the reasons we have a political party so opposed to voting by mail and making it easier.

 

They claim to be worried about fraudulent votes, what they are really afraid of is young vote.

The Stink of the Electon

One of the things that has changed, or at least it seems so to me, is the way we act towards people we disagree with.  

For example if you favor providing health care to everyone and someone else doesn't, you can argue the facts or attack their character.  The questions should be about how to pay for it and if it is affordable, not that the person taking the other position is a despicable crook.

Of course while it didn't just start it seems like in the last election we saw a significant escalation, first in the Republican primaries then in the general election.  Baseless accusations of criminal activities and chants of lock her up may have had an impact on the outcome and while she has never been charge or certainly convicted of any illegal activity, many people in this country believe in her guilt.

There are a couple of factors in play here, first the internet and the ability of lies to be widely circulated.

There is really no question in my mind that the Republican candidate last time was probably the least qualified person at every debate, but the use of name calling and wild claims seemed to be enough. 

It doesn't seem like we are going back to civility any time soon so the fact is we might just have to live amid the garbage being spewed for a few cycles.  

It will only stop when it doesn't work.

Winning Policies

One of the things that I find annoying is how we see pundits talking about what Democrats have to do to win the next election.

What you never hear is that they should adopt good policies.

Instead we have to get this vote or that vote, pick a candidate who can win, focus on the right states, get out the vote etc.

Now all of these might be true from a political perspective but I like to think, maybe incorrectly that the voters care about the issues.

Hopefully real ones.

For example finding a way to make sure everyone can get quality medical care with having to declare bankruptcy.

Reestablishing a measure of fairness in our tax system.

Reducing the level of damage we are doing to our only planet.

Improve the safety of all Americans domestically.

Protect America from external threats.

Develop a fair and logical policy on immigration.

Improve our ability to compete globally by providing our children and adults with the skills they need.

Eliminate discrimination based on race, religion, gender, age, sexual orientation while preserving everyone's individual belief system.

The eonomy we have now is creating sub-par jobs for many, driving up the national debt and increasing wealth disparity.  It isn't the best we can do.

Adult Governance

How much of an impact the democratic controlled congress will have on certain issues remains to be seen.

It clearly isn't able to pass legislation without buy in from the senate and the administration, so its ability to start new initiatives is going to be limited.

It can however impact the other sides initiatives in a similar fashion meaning that to get things passed, legislation will have to include some concessions to them.

This is in fact called democracy where negotiation becomes more important then rhetoric.

Some of the areas where this will have the most impact include social issues.

It can protect things like freedom of choice, health care, social security which were targeted to reduce the deficit.

Maybe the most important role it has is to be reasonable and not pave the way for a reversal in two years.

The last two years have seen the appointment of two conservative judges to the Supreme Court who will influence day to day American life for decades.  Other seats will inevitably come up and if not in the next two years certainly in the four after that.

There is a pretty clear demographic trend that indicates America becoming more progressive.  It looks inevitable but the inevitable part of it may take years.

Having a federal judiciary that is going to prevent progress would be a lasting legacy of intransigence we don't need.

Adult leadership that doesn't chase windmills but doesn't abandon progressive causes is what's need.

There has been a real absence of that recently.

Get Out and Vote

I guess we will see from the results today whether the last minute campaign push by the dontard helps or hurts republicans overall.

His message is so secular that it is only designed to appeal to the people who are already true believers, and he is trying to get them out to vote.

However, they represent a minority of the voters and his controversial visits might very well incite the opposition to get out and vote.

These rallies are more entertainment events than places to spread a message, since the message is so partisan.

The results will be in by tomorrow and its not clear if they will show if he helped or hindered his party.

His alarmist views seem to have given a few democratic senators a bump in the polls but we know that many of them were in very difficult races in states they normally support republican candidates.

Of course republican candidates used to be more centrist, but in the current situation they have to adopt the radical policies of the administration regarding immigration, abortion, guns, etc.

Some of this plays well, some of it doesn't and when you consider how farmers are being hurt by the trade policies and tariffs, we may see a shift in some of the voting.

The turnout is probably the biggest issue today, lets hope its huge.

Another Election

Tomorrow is election day although millions have already voted in early voting in the states the allow it.

The good news is the the electoral college is not a factor,

The bad news is that the gerrymandered congressional districts are a factor, although probably not enough of one to stop the House from changing.

The Senate was very unfavorable this year since most of the seats up for election were held by democrats and the odds of holding all of them and picking up two more was a difficult task.

Still it all depends on who turns out to vote and it looks like we will have a very high turnout for a midterm election.

Of course that is still going to be a pretty low percentage if you think about it of everyone who could or should vote.

Voting should be convenient and easy for citizens who want to exercise their fundamental right.

We have certain interests who prefer some people not vote so we throw up impediments.

The idea that we have any significant voter fraud has been debunked over and over but some still use it to put up restrictions aimed at certain minorities.

Democracy is dependent on the will of all the people, not just some of them.

The really good news is that so far we in America still respect the rule of law and accept the results.

The last time some didn't in 1860 it didn't go very well.

Vote and move America forward.

Democracy

One of the issues we should deal with at some point is whether as a nation we believe in democracy.

That may seem odd since we always say we do but our actions put the lie to that statement.

Many of us only believe in democracy of people like us, not those who disagree with us.

This went back to our constitution when we created a system that equates the States in some cases more than it equates people.

Our founding fathers had as many flaws as any other group of politicians and while they did create a document that has for the most part withstood the test of time we still have two undemocratic millstones in it.

The Senate and the Electoral College are not democratic institutions.

Generally the best definition of democracy is that each person gets an equal vote.

Situations where someone can lose the popular vote but win an election fly in the face of that.

Similarly, while Senators today are elected democratically in each state, the number of people each one represents varies greatly.

Senators from states with large populations each represent millions of people while senators from smaller states don't.

They get equal votes on issues though so voters are not equally represented.

Its unlikely either of these institutions are going to change soon but we should remember they aren't democratic and to the extent they sometimes seem to be, it just coincidence.

Saturday Musings

All the ridiculous and never ending investigations and allegations against Hillary Clinton never came up with a single charge.  Interesting.

Once a house of cards starts to crumble it crumbles pretty fast.  Got the National Enquirer and the Doorman involved already.

If you see a lot of rats leaving the ship, it means their feet are getting wet.

The North Korea actions have led to a postponement of talks, sounds a lot like that Nobel Peace Prize is slipping away.

So foreign relations, the climate and trade are all quickly deteriorating.  Need new players.

The Dontard in Ohio continues to blame the minority Democratic party for not supporting him?  Guess he isn't up on the two party system we have.

He wants to stop prosecutors from flipping suspects to get to bigger fish.  Guess he doesn't understand how our criminal justice system works.  He should watch episodes of Law and Order.

I'm sorry to disappoint those who think he has some sort of master plan to accomplish whatever it is he is trying to accomplish.  He doesn't and he just tries to take care of number one.

If you think he had a brilliant strategy to win the election remember he lost the popular vote and was helped by both the FBI and the Russians to win a few key states by the skin of his teeth.  Hillary isn't the best campaigner when you look at it.

The damage he is causing to the environment is actually the worst thing about this period.  The Supreme Court might be almost as bad.

The rest can be fixed pretty easily.

Election Energy

There are still seven months before the mid-term elections and that is a lot of time in the world of politics.

One of the keys to victory in the last presidential election was the dislike many Americans had for both candidates.  Of course the next election isn't a presidential one, but the actual president is still disliked and he isn't able to offset that with his opponent.

The republicans will try to act like this is still a personality contest and bring up targets like Hillary or Nancy Pelosi, but that well may not be deep enough to get much water anymore.

The people energized by that are already clearly voting a certain way and since they aren't actually on ballots, except in Pelosi's district you can't energize people to vote against them.

Of course neither is they're guy but he is continuing to be in the news every day and not generally in a favorable way.

We also are seeing some cracks in the economy as interest rates rise and the deficit increases.

Those tax cuts aren't changing a lot of lives and those miners and factory workers are pretty much exactly the same.

The group energized right now would indicate a big change in congress after the election, but seven months is a long time.

Time will tell.

Party Invites

One of the things certain republican candidates are doing is trying to walk a thin line between supporting the president and claiming he doesn't represent republican values.

In other words they want to eat their cake and have it too.

They want to get the votes of his supporters, but then (wink, wink) tell the voters who are repulsed by him that they can still trust republicans to do what's right for the country.

There is no real evidence that they will control the dontard, because he does represent what the republican party has become.

One of the criticisms you used to hear was that the two major parties were essentially the same on most issues with a few variations.

However, we now see a republican party that has aligned itself with the homophobic, misogynistic, racist, hypocrites of this country and some of their voters are repulsed.

To some extent republicans have been running on a fear platform, convincing voters that threats to their way of life were all around them and they had to defend it.

These threats were represented by groups such as immigrants or Muslims or any of those groups that were trying to live the American dream.

That message resonated enough, combined with the negative image that was painted of the democratic candidate to let a representative of this hateful message get elected, barely.

All of a sudden the policies started to reflect the idiocy of these views in a way that was chaotic and distasteful.

The party didn't change him, he changed the party.

Time to see who is staying soon.

Next Election

We will see if in the next election the movements get out the vote.

Its actually hard to say what republicans have going for them at this point.

If you are n favor of smarter gun regulations you should vote democratic.

If you want to promote the rights of women to earn equal pay and not be harassed in the workplace you should vote democratic (yes some democrats were also harassers)

If you want to promote equality for people who have different sexual orientations you should vote democratic.

If you want to treat immigrant fairly and with respect, while of course enforcing reasonable immigration laws you should vote democratic.

If you want to make sure all Americans have access to affordable health care, vote democratic.

If you want to protect the environment and slow the impact of climate change, vote democratic.

If you want trade policies that really do put the American people first while offering our industries a fair chance to compete, vote democratic.

If you want to protect and improve our public schools instead of trying to privatize them, vote democratic.

If you want to see our drug laws reflect the world we live in and not the tactics of Asian dictators, vote democratic.

If you want to control foreign attacks on our system and protect our democracy, vote democratic.

The list goes on.

Republicans are generally on the wrong side of history for these issues while promoting an agenda (not actions) promoting smaller government and family values.

Look at what they actually do and decide.