Sunday, December 3, 2017

Happy Reindeers!

The Republicans buy into the idea that if you reduce the cost of supply, prices will get cheaper and more items will be bought.  This increase in economic activity will lead to more jobs, more income and a better economy overall.

There is a certain validity to this, especially when the economy is sluggish and there are available idle facilities.

However, businesses invest money where they can get the most profits and as we have seen over the last few decades, the main returns are in overseas manufacturing and automation.

To the extent that people are suffering in this economy it is the people who were replaced by cheaper overseas labor or robots.

Statistics on income inequality generally focus on the top end and point out how the top 1% have a large percentage of the wealth.

As true as this is, the inequality is much more basic and visible.  Few people get to see the very wealthy on a regular basis.  However the economy now pays its well educated technical and business people quite well, although they don't think so and these people live in safe suburbs, with children in good schools and they eat at good restaurants and generally enjoy what is middle to upper middle class life.

I'm not talking about the heads of the company, just the talent that demands good pay and bonuses.

Meanwhile in the next town we have our displaced factory worker where both parents are working at low paying jobs, or government benefits, kids in private school and struggling to afford a few presents at Walmart, where they may get an employee discount.

The one group gets paid in the hundreds of thousands and the second group in the tens of thousands.

The first group may very well buy another new car if the prices go down, the second group may have to replace the used car they drive if it breaks down.

Not too long ago, the lesser paid group had jobs that bordered on the higher paid groups pay scale in auto plants and steel mills.  They were however not a good investment and so they lost most of those jobs and find themselves working in the service industry or not at all.

There is nothing in supply side theory that is going to restore these jobs.  It looks like the business tax cuts are going to happen and the odds of any dramatic changes in the economy are slim. However, in fairness, predicting the economy is pretty much a crap shoot so while a recession is more likely than a boom, stock prices will rise since profits are looking brighter.

What happens to those Walmart Happy Reindeers when the season is over?

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