Economic Tipping Point?

Outside of the contentiousness we see everywhere, on the surface things are continuing to be okay.

We have had a fairly steady recovery from the 2009 financial crisis which has continued through the current administration.

Structurally there hasn't been much change as current policies haven't revived much manufacturing or mining and the areas improving are little changed.

There are of course economic forces at work that is using the power of the unseen hand to determine where work is best performed based on being most efficient.

Government involvement in this process is normally futile and almost always is ineffective.

We now see the dontard trying to influence the economy via tariffs.

The original group were apparently to appease a few of his friends who wanted to reduce competition to some businesses that faced foreign competition.

However, he apparently is unaware that other countries set their own policies and were going to react.

We see China targeting specific areas that will hurt many of his supporters and the same from the EU.

His response is typical, he escalates and we seem unable to get the congress, which is populated by proponents of free trade to do anything.

So we see the beginning of the most likely event to cause a recession.

There are other troubling signs, but the disruption that might be caused by trade wars is probably the most serious.

Recessions are unfortunately part of the business process as every few years excesses are adjusted and we see a reduction in growth.

We are certainly due.  However, as much as the recovery was criticized for being too slow, that may be why we have avoided one so far.  The excesses weren't created, or at least not to the extent they normally are.

The retaliatory tariffs will likely lead to reduce exports and increased domestic prices and it may be the tipping point.

Time will tell.