Mid-terms

Most of the polls show the democrats picking up significant seats in the House and maybe even getting control of the Senate.

Of course polls aren't always accurate, however even when they are wrong they are usually closer than they get credit for.

Take 2016 where the polls showed Hillary with a lead of a few percent.  She actually won the popular vote by close to that amount but lost the electoral college because of a few states where the differences were extremely low.

Polls are statistical animals that survey a fairly small number of respondents and predict the overall results based on certain assumptions.  These assumptions rely on past behaviors and patterns that get factored into the ultimate number.

So in any election, a wildcard factor is difficult to account for accurately.  In 2016 the wild cards were all the allegations piled on Hillary and the dontard's ability to energize his base.

This led to an election surprise where a few hundred thousand votes in the right states would have changed the outcome.

So what about the upcoming mid-terms?  It seems that the wild cards are still how much the respective bases are energized.

You see the republicans still trying to find someone to attack and Nancy Pelosi is now a favorite target although they don't mind attacking Hillary, Obama or anyone else they think might work.

It doesn't seem like the base is as energized as it was when Trump was promising them a return to the glory days of the industrial revolution where coal mines were booming and factory jobs were aplenty.

We now have a loyal base but a base that is starting to pay for the poor economic decisions of the dontard as the trade wars start to impact farmers, workers and even miners.

The outrage on the left seems to be growing so we have, at least right now, a strong likelihood that democrats will show up to vote and many republicans won't be motivated.

Can this change?  Of course it can, but considering the general disinterest the mid-terms elicit and the ability of the dontard to create controversy, we don't think it will.