Sunday, March 10, 2019

Budget Follies

We live in a country where the Government spends much more than it collects in taxes.  Faced with that the last congress at the urging of the administration passed a tax break primarily for businesses and the wealthy.  The deficit grew and so did the national debt.

National Debt is one of those things that is fine until the day that it isn't.  Since we run higher and higher deficits we are forced to borrow to pay the interest on it.  As it grows the interest grows and we need to borrow more.

We have actually been pretty fortunate in the fact that interest rates have been very low for an extended period of time.  The interest on the debt is dependent on the amount of the debt and the interest rate.

There is no current achievable way to eliminate the deficit.  We would need to take draconian measures to even come close.  Massive cuts in popular programs or significant tax increases would be required and no one in politics is going to do that.

The other way to reduce or possibly even eliminate the deficit would be if the economy was to grow at a rate that we aren't even close to.  achieving.

In the budget about to be proposed by the administration we see significant increases in defense and wall funding slightly offset by unacceptable reductions in domestic programs.

It includes unrealistic growth projections that make it look like we can actually reduce the deficit.  So far this year the deficit has increased 77% over the prior fiscal year as growth has slowed, our trade deficits have increased and spending is greatly outstripping revenue.

It may improve a bit as the year progresses, but the year we are talking about started in October so we are approaching the half way point.

Since the financial crisis we have seen deficit numbers that were unimaginable not too long ago, but having gotten used to them we do not treat them as a crisis.

They are much more of a national emergency than the issue on our southern border.


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