Sunday, April 28, 2019

Economies

There is the "official" economy but there are many other economies as well which are harder to measure.

For most of my life when I read reports of how the economy was doing it had almost no impact on my actual well being.

My personal economy seemed very different than what I saw reported.  I was aware of higher or lower prices and interest rates but my personal economy was generally OK.

If you live like most of us and get laid off or fired you are in a recession.  If you don't you aren't.

For millions of Americans who lost good paying jobs in factories the economy has never recovered.  They may have a job or they may have left the workforce, but they are not earning what they used to.

They has been a significant trend in this country where workforce participation has been declining after a period of significant increase as more women joined it.

Some of this is related to people retiring but a significant part of it is related to people who live in the "get by" economy.

They may work "off the books" a bit, they may get disability or unemployment benefits, possibly food stamps, and may be selling of things that they have acquired over time.  They also might work in the normal economy some of the time in seasonal or other work as it becomes available.

They possibly would like full time employment if it was available but many of them are becoming unemployable as they develop addictions, possibly to opioids or alcohol.

The following chart shows the dramatic reduction in workforce participation after the peak near 2000.

That drop is caused by many things, but the economy of the late 1990s employed many more people than we do today.

Simply a fact.  Not the greatest economy of all time, unless you ignore the vanishing workers.

United States Labor Force Participation Rate


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