Thursday, April 11, 2019

Unanticipated Consequences

In general, to determine the effectiveness of a course of behavior you have to measure results.

The results are the measure of effectiveness although of course to get a true measure you have to make sure there are no other variables.

This is fairly easy in a laboratory setting but not so much in the real world.

Still, if you introduce a specific action and a related result changes, you can treat the result as a likely result of that action.

Take immigration.  We have seen a lot of rhetoric and bluster about it yet the result is a significant increase in people coming for asylum.

It seems counterintuitive, but there is most likely a relationship between the two.  Sometimes just drawing attention to an issue, makes it more popular.

Of course the causes could be related to deteriorating conditions in their home countries.

Still our anti-immigration administration has managed to increase the number of undocumented immigrants significantly.

Maybe time to try something different.

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