One of the reasons for the surprise is because so much of the prediction is based on trend analysis. Statistics are wonderful tools, but a statistic measures a real world event. I haven't seen a decent analysis of what happened but just from what was obvious was there was a tremendous increase in the need for certain jobs, like delivery and warehouse workers, while the non-essential worker layoffs had already happened.
There was another factor I haven't seen discussed so I don't know how significant it was but we gave business paycheck continuation incentives.
Still more people on payrolls is a good thing and the stock market responded. The stock market has been doing well regardless but this impetus gave it a very good day indeed.
It remains to be seen how fast the newly unemployed get their old jobs back or new ones. Its likely that many of the better paying jobs will be automated if possible. We also know many businesses are simply not coming back.
This is still a very rich country and the wealthiest people have not suffered like the average person. We pumped a tremendous amount of stimulus into the economy that we will have to pay for. Further many debts that were deferred are going to come due.
I anticipate some difficult day ahead for people in low skill jobs. Some service jobs are likely to increase as the gig economy jobs have become more popular. I have grown very fond of grocery delivery and while I do think I might want to do it once and awhile imagine using a service I never really used before the Pandemic.
Unfortunately while simply my impression, it seems similar to what happened when manufacturing left. Jobs that replaced them were low paying service jobs.
Still work is generally good and we will adjust.
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