Labels

People like to classify other people using labels like conservative or liberal.  Once they apply the label they associate every position supposedly held by that group to you.

With the exception of the Trump Puppets, most people are much more complex than that.  We used to realize you could be a social liberal and a fiscal conservative.  We also used to realize you could  be liberal on one issue, say civil rights and still oppose things like abortion.

We have apparently devolved into a nation where individuals are assumed to simply except the party line.  Take a somewhat controversial congress women like AOC who represents a very progressive position and for various reasons has become something of a figurehead.  I agree with some of her positions but not all of them and I know I don't consider her my spokesperson.  She is of course entitled to hold her positions and the only ones she actually has to answer to are her constituents.

Someone who believes we should have universal health care can also believe we should balance the budget.

You can hold liberal, moderate or conservative views (or a mixture thereof) on each individual issue and ultimately support a candidate who comes closest to your views.

In the current environment one big issue is that the current incumbent of the White House is simply the wrong person who espouses or at least encourages some elements of hate.  You can unite in opposition to him while still not becoming a socialist.

In fact the person elected to the Presidency needs to represent all Americans, not just those who agree with him/her.

By definition that makes that person a moderate, or maybe more of a moderator.

The Executive Branch executes the programs passed by the congress.  If they determine the programs too we have lost one of main principles, democracy.

State and Church

Our country was founded by various people escaping religious persecution in Europe as well as others.  The reformation took place near the age of discovery and each country decided whether to remain with Catholicism or allow a different religion.  Few were tolerant and believing differently than the state could result is rather severe consequences.

The founding fathers, who themselves had varying religious views, decided that the State would not pick the religion for the people and the constitution prohibits the "establishment of a religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof".

It couldn't be clearer that the state cannot establish which religion we have to practice.  This has however been twisted over the years into a system that comes close to doing just that.

Many people, perhaps a majority, would like to see the country declared a Christian country.

Many object to the practice of Islam specifically as if the part about prohibiting the free exercise thereof means nothing to them, although many of the same people are very protective of the Second Amendment.

It could be easily argued that we have gone a long way towards establishing a preference for many religions in our tax laws.  Not taxing them goes a long way to helping them get established.

Religions in this country should neither be helped or hindered by our laws.  Taxing them on the same basis as every other person or enterprise would achieve that.  Right now religions are treated preferentially and they shouldn't be.

Everyone should have the freedom to believe what they want, but no particular set of religious beliefs should dominate.  Yes, to some extent many of our laws have origins in things like the ten commandments, but we have codified the laws and we should enforce the laws we passed and not what is in some religious text in the Courts.

The other part has to answer to a higher authority, maybe.

Safety First

There is some encouraging news out of Oxford about a potential vaccine, but of course it isn't ready or proven yet.

On the other hand we have a dog who caught the virus in North Carolina.  So household pets are at risk but so far we are infecting them and not vice versa, at least as far as we know.

There are lots of issue that have to be dealt with  that have some real urgency.

First is getting people back on the payrolls and giving them a way to make a living.

Second is assuring that all Americans get a chance to vote.

We continue to see a widening gulf in this country between classes.  Many people who work in offices and similar jobs are in fact able to work remotely, at least to some extent.

Manual workers have to be there.  You can't drive buses, lift boxes, make products remotely, at least not yet.

Essential workers had to continue working and while some got infected, most did not.

Until there is an effective vaccine we need to make sure that the workers are protected with the measure that are proven to work.

It won't be risk free, but then again it never was. Voting is not as complex unless you don't want everyone to vote.

We clearly can send all registered voters a ballot with a unique code that they can use to vote and return by mail or in person.  One vote, one person.

Of course this would lead to allegations of voter fraud, although mostly they mean too many people got to vote.

One vote, one person is just right.

Ignore Their Diversions

There is a playbook used by certain people that is simply designed to avoid discussing real issues.

Generally the strategy is to dig up some weakly related point that diverts the conversation from the current issue to something else.  The argument that what my guy did is OK because someone who we have decided is on your side did something worse (generally not actually worse).

Its an attempt to deflect the argument and in our current age we have media that will play up things like this either because they are primarily a propaganda outlet or because they don't want to be accused of bias.

Its been successful and in fact it seems like they have a list of  talking points to roll out depending on the situation.  

In a recent documentary it was pointed out that the headline is often the only thing much of the public remembers.  

Similar to certain sports battles, the public serving as the referee often remembers the response more than the original issue.

A lot of this is orchestrated by sophisticated foreign cyber groups who spread the misinformation widely over social media.  

The only strategy that seems to be effective is to return to the initial point and ignore the tactic.

If you engage with the false narrative you give it credence.  We already know that in the upcoming election, there will be attempts to accuse Joe Biden of inappropriate behavior with an aide who worked for him.  The accusation has almost no credibility or corroboration but that doesn't matter to the cyber people.

Did something happen?  Doesn't seem likely based on the investigation that the Times did but it will be beat to death by the propagandists.  Best to let them wear themselves out.

Plan the Restart

There has to be some point where people are allowed to resume risky work if they take adequate precautions.

What is clearly needed is more protective gear and some strict rules about social contact.

It would be better if we could get a vaccine but we can't drag this on indefinitely.

I feel fairly confident that if you follow the rules, wear a mask, maintain social distancing, wash your hands frequently and sanitize and suspect items, you can greatly reduce the risk of infection.  Some risk will still exist and probably no matter what we do some risk will.

Yes those who flaunt the guidelines put themselves and possibly others at greater risk, but if we are hoping for a world where everyone complies we will wait forever.

Yes, risk takers who expose themselves may place their close associates at risk but it might be something we can't avoid.

I can tell people smoking is dangerous, yet some will still smoke.

It is a tough decision, but certainly we need to have a point where most people can rejoin the workforce.

Owners of factories or stores need to make the conditions as safe as possible but we need to produce and sell items.

We already have certain people working and while some have gotten infected, most seem to be OK.

Vigilance and compliance with guidelines should enable us to get the process started.

1984

In the book 1984 by George Orwell we are introduced to a world where truth is manipulated and the population is controlled by an authoritarian regime.

When I first read it I thought of it as a far fetched vision of a future that would never happen.

Unfortunately, some of the things in the book seem to have been adopted currently.

Truth has in many minds become subjective and as the book predicts, you see people believing what they are told to believe, even if it contradicts what they were told yesterday.

The trouble is that the true believers believe, and if you contradict them you are lying.

Black is white, facts are changeable, and you have to simply believe in your "prophet" so to speak.

If you declare that everyone lies and records are altered then there is no truth.

The virus will just disappear to I was the first one to realize it was a Pandemic are not contradictory statements but simply truth as provided on different days.

If you study history, especially Roman history, you will notice that the change from a democracy to an empire was a process, not a single event.  What is outrageous today becomes normal tomorrow.

Are we too far gone?  It's hard to say but we have a core who simply toe the party line and accuse everyone else of being sheep for believing in science and reality.

Did we land on the moon?  Maybe not.  Is the world round?  Maybe not.  Do vaccinations help people?  Not so fast.

You have to wait for truth to be revealed by the leader before you say.

Check your reality each day, it changes.

The Election is Coming

Any speculation about the November election seems a bit premature but the current situation is clearly going to influence it.

We live in a country where barring a major upheaval, there are Red States, Blue States and Battleground States.

In forming the country, we set up the Senate and the Electoral college to protect what were the slave states from the more populous and industrial states.  This has carried forward and gives our more rural states a disproportionate voice in many ways.

So instead of just the popular vote there has to be an electoral college strategy to achieve victory.

So what does this mean?  Last election, despite losing the popular vote by a significant margin, Trump managed to carry a small number of battleground states by extremely slim margins and win the electoral college vote.

He won those states for two reasons.  Much of his base was energized to vote since they believed he represented a significant change from "normal" politics and the democratic candidate failed to turn out or energize much of her base.

It turns out the three states that swung the election, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin did so by the slimmest of margins.

The factors that led to that are varied but perhaps the biggest one was the dislike many voters felt for the Democratic candidate, whether merited or not.

In addition, since the polls indicated she would win, many felt free to not vote in protest or to vote for a third party candidate.

If you consider the candidates from the last election, the two parties managed to nominate two candidates that had very unfavorable ratings.  It was one of the quirks of our system that an unpopular candidate can win in a crowded primary if they have a dedicated group of followers.

The next election is likely to be very different for a lot of reasons.  It is of course too early to predict but we are unlikely to hear many chants of lock him up, at least directed at the Democratic candidate.

Wag the Dog?

It's interesting how easily some people have decided to blame China for our virus outbreak.  This strategy was led by the President who likes to play Wag the Dog.

This is a strategy where you deflect blame by finding an enemy that can become the focus.

Now let's accept that the virus originated in China and let's even assume they weren't totally truthful about the details (they are a Government) why does it matter?

We had sufficient warning but still failed to prepare adequately.

In fairness it might have been difficult for anyone, but the documented video record shows how our leadership dropped the ball.

At this point a need to mitigate the damage to both health and the economy, but I've seen comments about not ordering Chinese takeout in retribution (that food is locally made) and we see an increase in attacks on Asian Americans.

Just consider whether it matters of the virus jumped to humans in China, that's just use some common sense, they have the most people in the world and therefore the most opportunity.

Since they seemed to handle it better than we did, maybe a should find out how?

Sacrificing Others?

When I see someone like the Lt Gov of Texas say that we need to accept some loss of life to restart the economy, I know he doesn't mean people he cares about.  Its easy to sacrifice nameless people on a chart.

Of course decisions that risk lives do happen a lot especially in wars.  Certainly when first responders rush into a dangerous situation risk is involved. Usually they are trying to minimize additional loss of life or sometimes property loss.

Its also been clear throughout our history that people have been willing to take dangerous jobs in exchange for compensation.  Its much more common to be willing to risk other people's lives.

We obviously should be working to get the economy going and as we learn how to avoid the virus we need to incorporate those behaviors into the way we work.  More testing can identify risk as can other measures like temperature monitoring and oxygen level monitoring.

Antibody testing can help determine who is likely to be immune, although not sure individual immunity protects those who contact you.  You might still be able to spread the virus via the items you wear or personally.

We talk about essential industries and ultimately almost everything becomes essential at some point or we probably wouldn't pay people to do it.

Open up the economy safely with as little risk as possible.  Increase testing and availability of PEP for health care professionals and others.

We also might want to consider how many essential items are dependent on foreign suppliers.

The odds are pretty high that this isn't the last virus we will have to deal with.

The Second Wave Is Coming!

The question facing the nation revolves around how much are we willing to suffer to preserve lives?

Of course the equation changes when the life we are talking about is your life.

Still, as we allow people to re-enter the economy, some will become infected and those infections will result in some deaths.

It would be simpler if the deaths were simply a one to one trade off, say a person was willing to risk his life to make some money, but based on what we know people infected can spread the virus even if they seem perfectly healthy.  So they become in effect walking boobytraps who can infect more vulnerable members of their own families or others.

Of course this is a risk people take routinely in other situations, if you don't get vaccinated against any number of deadly diseases including the flu.  The difference seems to be that in many of those cases there is what they call herd immunity as long as the vast majority were in fact vaccinated.

There is a bit of herd immunity building for this virus but how widespread is a mystery.

We are starting to see some statistical results indicating that the number infected greatly exceeds the reported cases (something we already knew).

In LA County a sample indicated the number actually infected could be as much as 50% greater than the number of official cases.

This could result in a mortality rate very close to what we see with the flu.  Of course the number of flu cases is greatly reduced already because of the vaccines and prior year exposures so the same mortality rate would result in many more dead.

So how many dead are acceptable?

At one time the projections were as high as 2 or 3 million without mitigation.

The estimates now seem to be less than 100,000.  Is that too low?

Since the mitigation has worked fairly well, some feel it was never really needed.

We may find out if they create the second wave.

Media Distortion

Have you ever considered why so much of the news is distorted if not actually fake.

Take the weekend protests in a number of states about stay at home policies.

These were organized by certain groups and led to crowds of various sizes to protest.

Now ignoring the actual motivations of these people what we tended to see in the news reports were a few interviews with the organizers or spokespeople, a response and various pictures of the protest.

What you didn't get was actual number or estimated number of protestors in most accounts.

I did see one account where it was reported to be a few dozen people at one protest.

Also the majority of the photos were taken to emphasize the signs and busiest parts
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it sof the protest.

The point being that to get the article published it had to be sensational.

This is what led to yellow journalism at one time and unfortunately much of our current coverage.

So everything covered tends to get exaggerated as much as possible to get picked up and published.

If you are reviewing two free lance stories, one showing a few scattered people standing around with signs and another covering the same thing with the same crowd but more focused pictures, you would publish the latter.

They always go for the sensationalism to get attention or clicks in today's world.

Its what sells.

Freedom

In general I am often mystified about the time and effort put in by some on the right over issues that have no real bearing on anything.

Take Hillary Clinton.  We still see a fair number of attacks made on her despite the fact that she isn't running for anything.  Most of the attacks were never really relevant but they were considered successful in swinging those few states so its viewed as a winning strategy.  I can't imagine it is.

The playbook seems to be to find an issue that does well in focus groups and milk it for as long as you can.  They have backed off from attacking the ACA since it is now popular with the public (they still attack it in court).

The general theme is that some elite group out of touch with the "real" America is imposing their ideas on the country.  The evidence they present is almost always anecdotal or in fact often just false.

Take saying the pledge of allegiance in school.  I actually have no idea how prevalent this is nowadays and I really don't care.  It becomes rote and generally ignored by the great majority of the students.  More effective would be to spend time discussing things that make this country great.

It is also important to provide our future citizens with both the good and the bad things about this country.  We treated the Native Americans badly, condoned slavery for hundreds of years, and have some major issues today with inequality and racism, among others.

We did create a marvelous economy and provided a home for millions of oppressed people form the rest of the world.

We have a nation with a constitution, which while hardly perfect, has provided a framework allowing the nation to thrive.

Celebrate our greatness, improve upon it and create a nation we all proud of.

Freedom doesn't mean we all march in lockstep.

Safe Reopening

The ideal situation is one where we can reopen the economy and return to the way we were before the outbreak.

To do that without a vaccine or instant testing is foolhardy.

However, we do know that social distancing and protective measures reduce the chances of catching the virus significantly so it seems that industries that can operate like that might be able to reopen.

On issue is public transportation and where we have it we would need strict rules about wearing masks and capacity.

Realistically a crowded subway car might only need one offender to become a hotspot of transmission.

So masks and sanitizers have to be available and used.

While still a risk, individuals can in fact protect themselves if they act prudently.  If they don't but others do they may still be safe, similar to herd immunity.  Those who don't protect themselves will be at risk, but even then the odds are the virus will result in mild to moderate symptoms.

Will they infect their families or elders?

Possibly, but there is a limit to what we can do to protect people who refuse to listen.

There were always effective ways to avoid STDs, AODs and other diseases.

Some just didn't listen.  That won't change but there has to be a level of individual responsibility.

With adequate safeguards we should be able to cautiously open compliant industries and public services allowing remote workplace to the maximum extent.

Life simply comes with certain risks, but knowing what they are can help you avoid them.

Its Just Business

What I find interesting is how policies and decisions that were wanted by American Business owners and generally pushed by Republicans are now presented as liberal ideas.

For those of us old enough to remember, the NAFTA agreement was pushed by Ronald Reagan and the first Bush administration before it was taken up by Bill Clinton who got it passed with a lot of Republican senators (34) voting for it.

The people who want a global economy are in fact the owner of large businesses who want to reduce costs and increase profits by utilizing the cheapest available labor and goods.

This has nothing to do with immigration, the manufacturing jobs went away, partly because of trade and partly because of automation, but the immigrants who came here didn't take them.

Global trade has in some ways been very successful in reducing prices and improving economies in other parts of the world while leading to economic disruption here.

Much of this was inevitable since economics will always favor the more efficient method since that leads to a more competitive product.

Fine Swiss watches once dominated the market but have been replaced by mass produced battery operated ones.  They do maintain a high priced niche.

In fact watches in general have been replaced largely with cell phones except as pieces of jewelry

Simply put the old order that existed pre and post world war 2 has been replaced by businesses who simply make decisions that increase profits.  Being part of a community or treating workers as stakeholders is something that is used as PR but which doesn't survive a cheaper location.

It not personal, its just business.

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Who's Lying?

Life can be hard and to a large extent arbitrary.  Most of us are taught that being good is rewarded.

Follow the rules, finish school, get a job, get married, buy a house, have a family and life will be good.

Unfortunately that formula doesn't always work and, in fact, it may be a fiction.

Life is simply not a smooth path with rules.

It may fit more into the philosophy espoused in the Woody Allen film, Annie Hall where he explains to Annie that some people are living horrible lives from any number of afflictions. The lucky ones are merely miserable.

We are currently faced with a disease that is highly contagious and could devastate a large swath of humanity.  We have been faced with similar diseases throughout history, the black plague, influenza and others.  Perhaps for the first time we reacted to this one with strict measure that seem to have mitigated the damage but which has devastated the economy, at lease in the short term.

This mitigation has led some to argue the strict measures weren't necessary.  This is a chicken and egg argument, would it have been much worse without them or were they unnecessary in the first place.

Had we done less its pretty obvious that more would have been infected and more would have died.

The commentators don't care about people dying in many cases, as long as it isn't them.

They look at the workers much like soldiers in a war, facing danger but doing their duty which is to help them make money.

Many might die but they won't be inconvenienced.  A lot of the workers are buying in as they hear how "the social elite" are lying to them about the risks.

Once you have bought into the theory that some liberal elite group is untrustworthy, you start to believe the conservative elites who actually lie better.

Is it liberals being overprotective snowflakes?

Or is it conservatives being uncaring money grabbers?

That's a life or death question.

Attention Loving

Sometimes it seems like our President is simply living a delusional world that resembles the 1950s or maybe and earlier period.

One example is his decision, which he denies, to have his name printed on the stimulus checks going out.

I imagine his thought process goes something like this.

The stimulus check arrives in the mail and the family is called to gather round the kitchen table to admire this wonderful gift,  They all take time to admire the bounty and particularly note the signature of their great benefactor.  Of course he can't actually sign the check so his name is in the memo field.

How delusional can you be?

The vast majority of the checks are going via electronic transfer to peoples bank accounts.  The relatively few physical checks will be almost immediately deposited.

Its been quite a while since I've seen one of these but if you consider that the names on dollar bills are almost universally ignored I doubt it would mean hardly anything except of course the press has made a big thing about it.

So while no one was likely to have noticed his name, the Press has now been manipulated into giving him a ton of free publicity, even if most of it is negative.

Once again the only real talent he has is displayed, how to get attention in the media.

He has effectively spent his life promoting himself and he continues to do so.

It wont stop anytime soon, in his mind he will always be the greatest and he will keep telling us that, whether he gets re-elected or not.

We keep paying attention, which is on us.

Really?

You would like to think that in a time of crisis the objective would be to save people's lives, improve supplies, and work for the best outcomes.

If you simply work with that motivation you may at times take heat or be criticized but you would know you were doing your best.

We are where we are and dredging up how we got here is better left to the future where perhaps an analysis can point out things we can do better next time.

For various reasons related to geography I sometimes get to see up to 5 briefings today on the situation, Federal, State, City and local counties.  Four of them are primarily focused on the latest changes, what we should be doing, what are the ongoing plans and progress made.  Sometimes reporters like to bring up things that might be controversial and generally its not that hard to address, even at times admitting a previous error.

One of the briefings, while at times imparting important information has turned into more of a campaign rally, while complaining about how other are politicizing the situation.

It has further degenerated into petty bickering, silly presentations about how everything they did was perfect and how good his ratings are.  Yes the experts there sometimes get to talk but they are required to, as we say, kiss the ring or perhaps a different part of his anatomy.

This perverted view that the thousands of victims both past and future are less important than his ego is signs of a mental defect.

Its called Narcissism.

Stay Careful

Are essential workers in more danger than people self isolating?

Of course they are.

It is unfortunately a risk that someone has to take to provide essential services.  Should they be preotected?

Of course they should.

They should be provided all the tools they need to stay safe.  Still, the primary responsibility for each of us, rests with us.

Wearing PPE, hand washing, maintaining social distancing, and other behavior is the individuals responsibility to a large extent.  Providing them the opportunity to stay safe is everyone's.

One would like to think that by now we are all practicing common sense preventative measures, wearing masks in public, avoiding face touching, washing hands often, sanitizing what we can.

Supplies may be somewhat limited and they should be diverted first to essential workers.

Some workers have been impacted already, although it is also possible that transit workers, grocery personnel, and others contracted the virus outside of the workplace.

They should be provided the PPE they need and they need to be careful.

Everyone does.

Easter

For those who celebrate it, have a happy Easter.

For those of you who celebrate a different holiday, best wishes.

For those of you who don't celebrate a holiday, enjoy your day.

Spring is a time of rebirth in the Northern Hemisphere and while the weather is, as always, unpredictable, spring has sprung.

While most of us are hunkering down because of COVID19, it will end and we will re-emerge.

Be careful and survive so you can enjoy the rebirth.

Restarting

We are starting to see discussions about rebooting the economy which has in some cases ground to a halt.  The primary issue is that once we return to normal, the virus will have a new opportunity to spread into the population.  We have relied on social distancing and self isolation so far since we have not had enough tests to determine who has or has not been infected, except for the already ill.

We seem close to an antibody test which very likely will identify those who should have immunity.  How many that will be is unknown.  The only place I have read that did an estimate was Austria, a very different country than ours where less than 1% of the sample had been infected.

If the numbers are that low here it is problematic but also helpful.  Still a small number of infected can start a chain of infections that can grow exponentially.

Because of the way the virus is transmitted the use of masks in any group setting and the washing of hands frequently should become a way of life.  The second thing should be aided by hand sanitizing machines.

Being immune will not mean you can't carry the virus home with you so it would seem that disposable outer ware would make sense.  It also makes sense that we institutionalize to the greatest extent possible people working from home.

Home delivery of goods would also help assuming the delivery people practiced safe procedures.

Ultimately we will have a vaccine that might enable full resumption of our previous habits.  Still that seems over a year away and practicing safe public behavior can be as effective as social distancing.

Real Choice

Throughout History Government has varied from serving the interests of a few to serving the interests of the many.

Sometimes the first type is violently overthrown, i.e. the French Revolution.

You would think it would be easy to tell the difference but not always.

Is our current Government serving the interests of the many or just the few?

A few recent candidates have maintained that the big corporations have bought the Government and actually run things.

Considering the role of money in getting elected they may have a valid point.

Everyone running for office claims to represent all of their constituents while clearly some do not..

Lets be clear, we have elections and to some extent we are a Democracy.

Not a pure one, but rather a representative democracy where some votes count more than others.

The question everyone should ask themselves is what kind of democracy they want?

One in which a minority can impose their will on the majority or a true one?

Consider that you may in fact be part of a minority now or in the near future.  However, if we ignore superficial qualities such as skin color, national origin, religion, income level, etc. we can join a majority of fair minded people who support the greatest good for the greatest number.

Its a choice we all have to make.

Socialism, Communism and More

One of the things some people like to say is that socialism just doesn't work.  Of course they usually then cite examples from communist countries.

Communism is at heart a socialist system but it adds a lot of political items that have nothing to do with Socialism per se.  Its based on the writing of Karl Marx and subsequently altered by the Bolsheviks in Russia who sent many socialists to prison camps.  It supposes the end of all private property and a dictatorship of the Proletariat.

As bad as it was it actually sort of worked although its socialism soon disappeared as powerful party officials became the privileged.

Socialism on the other hand was likely the first system adopted by early humans as they organized into clans.  I remember studying modern day tribes in Anthropology that essentially practiced a form of socialism in distribution of goods and services.  Hunters would share kills among all tribe members, gatherers similarly shared there product and when need all helped the weak with building structures etc.  They took care of each other, although there was of course a pecking order.

In modern society we have the example of many European Countries that have implemented systems with socialist overtones and some capitalism  Incentive are preserved as the wealthy can indeed accumulate a percentage of wealth although they pay high taxes.   These taxes pay for everyone's health care, social welfare and education.  They are prosperous and generally do well in measure of material and spiritual well being.

At one time we had a marginal tax rate of as much as 75% and it didn't stop investment or wealth growth.

We are supposed to have a democratic form of Government.  It was not a pure democracy since it was designed to protect certain interests. Almost no one in this country is proposing a communist Government.  Progressives want to reduce the wealth inequality, provide health care and education to all and shore up our retirement system.

For everybody.

Decisions Matter

It seems that in every election now young people need to learn one lesson, that there is a real choice even if it isn't your ideal choice.

If you support progressive values such as universal health care, improved social programs, better immigration policies etc. failure to support the better option doesn't just mean status quo, it means lost ground.

Especially if you consider Climate Change to be a major issue.

We have spent four years essentially losing ground as measure were not implanted and others were rolled back.

To some extent the damage done in four years might be reversible, but another four years may doom this country for a generation.

Especially if you look at the Supreme Court nominees.  We have already guaranteed a conservative court for many years.  Another few appointments will possibly institutionalize it.

Consider the courts decision to force Wisconsin voters to show up in person this past Tuesday.  It wasn't based on anything in the constitution and is going to cost lives because of a political bias.

There were and are real differences between the candidates.

Good is not the same as better but its much better than bad.

Believe!

I see a certain amount of believers talking about how God will get us through this.  Of course by that logic he/she would be responsible for doing this in the first place.

It is of course a part of human nature that we want to have some control over events we simply don't control.

Don't get me wrong, we can do the smart things like keep social distancing, wear masks, self isolate if we have symptoms, but the disease itself was simply a plague unleashed on us.

We see some politicians wanting to blame the country it originated in as if viruses (viri?) had nationalities.  They don't respect or even know our human borders.

Find someone to blame for things that just happen.  It makes us feel better.

Life is sometimes very hard on us.  Many things happen that seem capricious.  Babies are born with terrible diseases or heart wrenching condition when clearly they did nothing wrong.  As we learn more we see sometimes its in our DNA which raises the question of whether we should consider genetic testing to weed out some diseases.  Of course the concept of eugenics has some very bad history even though ignoring issues like race, sex and nationality it could lead to healthier babies.

This desire to change the future is the fundamental reason for the existence of gods.  It is likely that our very ancient ancestors found that when they did certain things it led to an abundance of game.  Similar to how superstitious baseball players tend to keep routines as long as they are winning.  At some point someone became the keeper of the rituals and we had the beginning of priests.

This ritualization grew more and more elaborate and ultimately became more and more refined.

Since things would sometimes go wrong we needed to invent sin to explain it.

Its just evolution after all.  Complexity evolves to meet needs.

Bad Decisions?

Everyone always loves 20-20 hindsight since everything becomes so clear.

The other interesting phenomena is that when tough controversial choices need to be made there are always some people who support the one not taken, and they can point that out if they end up being close to correct.

It may not be a popular thing, but we have always sacrificed lives because of economics.

Are we going to stockpile everything we might possibly need for every possible emergency?

We are not, it would be too expensive.

So generally those in charge of those things work on probability analysis.  We couldn't afford the alternative.  

So when something happens on the fringe of the probabilities, people will die because.

No one wants that to happen but we run out of money.

I'm not saying mistakes weren't made and that more mistakes won't be made.  Unfortunately projections are pretty grim, but they could be grimmer.

We love to blame people for things we don't like, its human nature.  Just try to remember, many individuals ignored warning and added a lot of risk into the process.

Some of them gambled and lost.

Its sad but its also our nature.

Musings

The great majority of people who catch the Covid19 virus actually survive.  In fact there is significant evidence that many people who have it don't have symptoms and may never have any.

Still, some percentage of those who get it get sick and some get very sick.  A few (relatively) die.

I still sometimes wonder if we are being too cautious.

As bad as the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu was, and it killed a great many people (if you look at the numbers as a percentage of the population it would equate, today, to infecting 2 billion people and killing 200 million worldwide) we managed, and in many ways better than now.

Of course, had they followed the practices we are following today the numbers may have been a lot less.  Its also possible that a lot less would have died if we had the technology we have today.

Right now I'm living in one of the hot spots and the local news frequently highlights families that have lost one or more loved ones and the fact that they were unable to say their goodbyes.  I do understand their sadness and pain but the alternative would be for more of them to potentially get sick and maybe die.  Their loved one certainly wouldn't want that.

Dying is the one activity that every one of us will experience and the only one where we can't learn from the experience of others.  No one who has died can write a "Dying for Dummies" book.

We tend to judge it from the survivors view for obvious reasons, but whether a dying person cares is unknown.

We also don't know if its a transition or an end, although many people claim they do know.

We will all find out someday.

Masks Save Lives

How dangerous is it for the average person who goes to work or goes shopping for essentials?

Well obviously it depends and if you can avoid contact between your respiratory system and the virus, probably pretty safe.

It would be a lot safer if we all had suitable masks.  Gloves are not as important since the virus doesn't infect through the skin and hand washing after any potential contact is important.

Why we don't have enough masks available is the real question?

They seem pretty easy to manufacture and there are instructions on how to make them at home, although not the really good ones.

Any mask reduces the chance that the virus will find an entrance to your respiratory system.

The mask also prevents others from spreading the virus.

Its just common sense we should wear them.

Viral Pandemics

I've seen a number of articles detailing what was called the Spanish Flu.  That Pandemic really had nothing to do with Spain, it got its name because the countries engaged in the Great War heavily censored their news so neutral Spain was the only one writing about it.

It was a horrible disease that claimed its victims quickly and killed quickly.  It may have killed as many as 100 million people worldwide and over 600,000 in the United States.

There was no effective treatment except for social isolation and basic sanitation and one treatment recommended at the time (high doses of aspirin) may have been deadly.

Eventually we developed herd immunity and it faded into history.

Since then medical progress has improved although at the time everyone seemed to have masks available to wear in public.  In some cities you were fined for not wearing one.

It may simply be the way these things have to happen.  A highly infectious virus is going to infect many people and it doesn't take much to lose control.  Its certainly possible that if we tested everyone we might already find high infection rates in hotspots.

There are two ways this will end or at least become less threatening.  First once we develop herd immunity, similar to the Spanish Flu.  That will require vast infection rates and unacceptable numbers of deaths.  The other will be the development of an effective vaccine.

Either way we need to be at least as smart as we were in 1918 and use masks and good sanitation to reduce the number of infections.  Wash your hands, don a mask, do what you have to do, remove mask and wash your hands without touching your face.

Other items that might be exposed should be handled carefully although the danger of secondary infection is variable.

If someone in your household in infected exercise extreme caution.

Be Safe.

Ounce of Prevention

Most people tend to think of themselves as special, and of course to themselves they are.

To the rest of the world not so much.

To the virus, not at all.

Its one of the things about life, you live and then you don't.

It doesn't matter if you are ready or not, it will come to an end.

Still we can do what we can to prolong it and avoid obvious risks.

Which brings us to the issue about masks.  Initially the advice was that masks do not protect healthy people they only keep sick people from spreading the disease.

Of course that would protect healthy people.

Since the virus is apparently spread by people with no symptoms, we want those people to wear a mask.  Since those people aren't identified everyone might be on.

So everyone should wear a mask.

They don't weigh much so literally they are that ounce of protection.