Confederate Monuments

The American civil war seems almost unique in first its deadliness and second how forgiving the winning side was.

 

In a country with a population of around 31 million between 600,000 and 700,000 died and many others were maimed.  That's abut 5% of the population and considering the fact that it was primarily men who died, we are seeing horrendous impacts.

 

More died from disease than battle injuries but the dead are still dead.

 

You would think that this would result in a significant amount of retribution but in general the soldiers all just went home and the nation adjusted to the new realities.

 

While the North returned to business as usual, the South had the freed former slaves and the requirements of reconstruction to deal with.

 

Some of the South, particularly parts of Georgia and Virginia suffered serious damage from the war, most of it was relatively unscathed.  When the old white establishment regained control, it did a number of things.  One it created a mythology that explained the war as a fight for States rights when all the pre war records show it was to preserve slavery. 

 

Second they started to erect monuments to their "heroes".

 

These monuments and other recognition celebrated these traitors as symbols of the lost cause of the South. 

 

This mythology of the lost cause grew and the symbols of the confederacy became popular as a sign of rebellion over the years.

 

These monuments and symbols were simply symbols of oppression and slavery and erecting them was insulting to the ex-slaves and their descendants. 

 

Removing them is a symbolic gesture but so was erecting them.

 

One is a symbol gesture of equality and freedom.

 

The first symbolized oppression and death.

 

Gestures do matter and its time to correct injustice.  

Incompetence and Dereliction of Duty!

By almost any standard our current President is responsible, at least in part, for killing more Americans than any other.  One could argue about whether a President is responsible for war deaths, it might depend a bit on the war, Vietnam yes, WW2 no, but when inadequate preparation or mismanagement are the cause the blame is clear.

 

How many Americans died or will die from the Coronavirus because of his actions than would have?

 

By almost any comparison we have lost more per capita than any other country.  It is probably safe to say that had we been reasonably prepared we would have had half as many deaths.  So that means 60,000 deaths for his incompetence.

 

Worse, we are seeing great increases in cases when most of the world has figured out how to contain it.  I don't want to excuse the misguided State officials who failed to do what they should have, but the leadership encouraged them so I will give him half the blame.

 

He of course wants to blame almost everyone else. 

 

I guess, for at least now, it is spreading among younger people who don't die at the same rate as older folks due, keeping the mortality rate down.  It is spreading so rapidly that it is hard to imagine it won't spread to more vulnerable population groups.  Let's hope not.

 

Now lower in numbers but more devious are those that died because they had a Russian Bounty on their head.  He claims he wasn't briefed but no one can believe that.  How would they not brief the President on a matter like that.

 

This is clearly a betrayal of those troops and a failure as Commander in Chief.  Incompetence is bad enough but betrayal is worse.  He like to accuse his predecessor of various crimes but this is clearly a real one.

 

It is arguable how many were victims of this policy, but some were.  Dead young Americans due to his failure to act.

 

Consider the bruhaha over Benghazi where nothing wrong was actually done.

 

Are there no patriots left?

 

 

Civic Duty

Why does it seem lie so many American are willing to believe that the establishment is willing to lie to them?

 

Yes we have a President who lies all the time, but he is unique and his lies are terrible generally.

 

He isn't the cause because he got elected because enough Americans believed lies about his opponent.

 

Speaking of which, as much as the conservative media has attacked the Clinton's over the years, outside of Bill's infidelity nothing else has stuck.  A lot of people seem to believe they know they're guilty but they have managed to avoid prosecution for some reason. 

 

Other trends that seem ridiculous are things like vaccines cause autism or worse or the moon landing was faked.  The fact that people believe these things despite all the evidence is amazing.

 

Which brings us to the current virus crisis.

 

Yes in the early days some officials said masks didn't help.  It hard to understand why since clearly masks while not 100% effective clearly interrupt spreading the virus.  They seemed to think coughing into your elbow was important but wearing a mask wasn't.  Maybe they were trying to avoid a run on masks but if they were, shame on them.

 

Masks as well as social distancing reduce the spread of the virus.  You also have to avoid touching your face with infected hands and other preventive measures but wearing a mask is in fact the easiest way to reduce risk for you and for others near you.

 

People who refuse to wear them for perhaps political reasons are idiotic.  The fact that this is considered a political issue is idiotic.  Our response to the virus and our preparedness is somewhat political but staying healthy isn't.

 

The horse may be out of the barn but there are more horses in there so shut the barn door and wear a mask.

 

Its actually your civic duty.

 

 

Hospitals vs House Calls

My mother was not a fan of Hospitals.  In fact she described them as the place you went to die.

 

Now I thought her views were just silly because of course in the modern world hospitals were where we got better. 

 

Thinking about her view and when she grew up, doctors used to make house calls.  For the majority of things they would take your temperature, listen to your heart ask you a few questions and tell you to rest and fill a prescription. They might advise your caretaker on what to watch for.  If they said you had to go to the hospital, it wasn't a good thing, it meant you had a very serious disease that he couldn't treat in your home.

 

So yes, trips to the hospital were bad and often preceded dying.

 

Those same doctors also had offices  where they also would treat you.  Those still exist but of course they required you to go there.  If you were too sick for that the doctor would come to you.

 

I'm not aware of any doctors that still make house calls, although of course they could exist.  If you think about being treated at home vs being treated in a hospital the difference in cost and risk are significant.  Yes hospitals are supposed to be sterile but we know that they also have some significant risks.  They are also incredibly expensive and are likely to perform a lot of tests to make sure they aren't sued. 

 

At home it might not be sterile, but it could be clean enough and certainly wouldn't cost anywhere near what a hospital does.  While a doctor might refer you for some tests, it just seems much less likely in most cases. 

 

Will we ever return to the world of house calls?  It doesn't seem likely but we now have virtual consults and perhaps the on site person doesn't have to be an MD, merely have one on-line to direct a visiting  assistant.

 

It seems like it could be a way to reduce health costs and provide treatment for a large percentage of people with common ailments. 

 

Just an idea but maybe its time?

Love Thy Neighbor, Wear a Mask

Coronavirus can infect anybody.  Sort of like other viruses, say HIV, not everyone infected develops the disease.  So not every infected person developed Covid19. Why some do and some don't is simply a mystery at this time, but if you have he virus you can infect others with it.

 

The others you infect will in turn either develop Covid19 or not but the virus is still as virulent.  What the statistics do show us is that older people are more likely to develop the actual disease and when they do they have the greatest risk from it.

 

It is also unclear whether having the virus without symptoms means you develop immunity to it.  Its possible you do but since most asymptomatic people aren't tested we just don't know.

 

What we do know is that once you get the disease, mortality is pretty high.  If you look at resolved cases, cases where you either recovered or died, worldwide nearly 10% died.  In the US it is higher. 

 

This might seem high since generally you see mortality measured against all cases including active ones and it is lower.  It is also possible that older people resolve more quickly and not as favorably skewing the results.

 

No matter it is a deadly disease that can kill you.  So far younger, healthier people are less likely to die but just as likely to spread the disease to older household members who might die.

 

Some fatalists might feel that universal infection is inevitable so why take precautions.  This will of course allow rampant spread of the virus and more deaths.

 

Taking precautions is unlikely to eliminate the virus completely pre-vaccine but it can greatly reduce the risk, allow for self quarantine, and keep people alive until we achieve herd immunity.

 

I prefer keeping as many of us alive as possible.

 

We owe it to each other.

A Younger Electorate?

One of the fundamental shifts that is likely to happen in this and future elections is the impact of younger and diverse voters.

 

This group which is traditionally more liberal if not radical has always had strong opinions but a poor voting record.  I don't want to speculate on the reason but movements that have depended on young voters have traditionally been let down by the turnout.

 

Just this primary season the Bernie Sanders campaign put a lot of eggs in that basket and it didn't work out.

 

So why is this likely to change?

 

Maybe it won't, but the signs are there that it is more likely than not.

 

The recent events such as the virus response and the protests over racial injustice have had an impact. Still will they show up to vote?

 

That's possibly the most significant change, they might not have to.  The actual process of voting may have been a part of the problem.  Many young people are likely to think "my vote isn't going to make a difference, I'll go have fun instead".  Is that accurate?  Maybe not but voting is inconvenient and since they traditionally haven't shown up, it might be as good a reason as any.

 

Make voting more convenient and they are so much more likely to do it, as are the rest of us for that matter.  This year with the virus we see a lot of primaries that surprise.  Certainly not all of them but the number of votes cast by mail and the results have tended to reflect a younger viewpoint.

 

Its one of the reasons we have a political party so opposed to voting by mail and making it easier.

 

They claim to be worried about fraudulent votes, what they are really afraid of is young vote.

Melting Pot!

I was raised at a time it was popular to talk about America as a melting pot.  We took in people from everywhere and turned them into Americans.  It was good for them and it made us great.

 

The idea and the dream was that no matter where you came form or what problems you may have had, in America you had the chance to succeed restricted only by your abilities.

 

We believed it but it wasn't completely true.

 

It certainly worked better if you were from a Western European country.  If you were from Asia or Africa or to some extent even Eastern Europe, it was much harder.

 

Today we have a President who has rejected the very concept of the Melting Pot America and wants to make us great again.  Since the thing that made us greatest was the blending of talents and abilities from everywhere a policy of exclusion is hardly going to make us "great again".

 

Some remember the past through the rose colored glasses of nostalgia and a lot of it was great, but what wasn't was the way we treated certain people because of their skin color, religion, gender preference, or politics.  Its time to stir up the melting pot some more and create the America of the future where we can really achieve greatness using the talents of all our people, not just some.

 

 

 

 

Distust?

I was reading about how up to 50% of Americans are saying they would not take a vaccine for the coronavirus?

 

I don't know if that number is accurate and I also know that many people are reluctant to take flu vaccines, but its still surprising.

 

I don't know if that reflects a general view towards vaccines or the still fairly prevalent belief that this virus isn't as dangerous as it was made out to be.  I suppose as the numbers start to spike is other sites we might see some clarification.

 

The issue with this virus is that the deadliest part of it actually was somewhat hidden from the general public.  Nursing homes, which are self contained accounted for a large percentage of fatalities.  Yes Hospital in badly affected areas were overwhelmed and the statistics were talked about, but I actually live in a heavily affected area and only was impacted indirectly.

 

As far as the illness goes.  I was impacted by the closures and the preventative measures, but not because anyone in my household got sick.

 

I was also pretty immune from the financial impact.

 

I imagine that many people in states and areas impacted less severely might think it was exaggerated.  I certainly don't want anyone else to get sick but it seems inevitable that we are going to see spikes in areas where precautions are dropped.

 

The reason the vaccine is so important is that the virus will spread quickly as long as it has unprotected hosts.  Protection should come in one of two ways, get infected or get the vaccine.  One is potentially deadly to you and your loved ones, the other is not.

 

It doesn't seem logical that so many Americans would opt for the deadly choice.  Has our mistrust of Science led to this? 

 

We still don't have a vaccine and maybe attitudes will change. 

 

Maybe.

 

 

Heros?

At times I don't know if young zeal is always misplaced.  I understand not wanting to honor people that were traitors and slave owners but there also has to be some logic applied.  For example protestors removed a statue of President Grant allegedly because he had owned a slave at one time in his life.

 

Its true, he married the daughter of a slave owner in Missouri who gave him a slave to help him work his farm.  The fact that they worked side by side and that Grant freed the slave after a year.  He also fought for this country in the Mexican war, was the General that eventually defeated the Confederacy in the civil war and as President tried to suppress the KKK.  Does the year of owning a slave who he worked with side by side for a year offset all the other things we should celebrate?  To some the answer is absolute.  To me he was one of the saviors of this country who deserves to be honored. 

 

On the other hand we have the Generals of the Confederacy who rebelled against this country and were also usually slave owners.  The monuments, streets and military bases named after them seems inappropriate.   The two are not comparable.

 

When it comes to our founding fathers I would like to see some common sense applied.  Thomas Jefferson and many of the others did own slaves but they also helped form this country.  We should honor his works while condemning the institution of slavery.

 

We can't change the past but we can make sure we celebrate the real heroes. Traitors need not apply.

 

Tulsa Rally

We know that we will hear that the sports and pictures showing many empty seats at the Tulsa rally will be called fake news among other things.  The initial posts relate to the silent majority being stronger than ever.  It's perplexing since his followers are neither silent or a majority.

The crowd was disappointing base on the wild predictions out out by his campaign.  Still the fact that his supporters from the middle of his area of support didn't overwhelm the venue is curious.  It could be that the virus and unrest caused them to stay home.  

It could also be that the way he has dealt with this issues among others.  Perhaps the slump in the polls is reflecting reality.

Still it is likely that he will soon the rally into a great success.

He will use thousands of words, after all there are many pictures.

Sinking Ship?

Most of the rats are staying loyal, but a few have fled. They probably can't tell the ship is sinking because they have been allowed to move to the upper decks of this administration.

Rats tended to be forced to live below the lowest deck since they weren't considered passengers so when the water would start to rise they were among the first to know.

Still, its hard for many republican politicians to buck the President because he does have his rabid supporters who are fine with his MAWA(Make America White Again) program.

He only got elected because a system designed to protect slavery originally (the electoral college) got him elected by the narrowest of margins.

Of course he liked the maps showing the one that made it look like he dominated since the red states occupy significant space.  However you represent people, not geography and the majority of the people voted for someone else.

A series of unfortunate events allowed him to win a few states by very narrow margins and squeek out an electoral college victory.

His is trying to recreate them but so far its not looking good.

Hopefully it Good Riddance.

Who's The Liar?

So we are watching our liar in chief accuse his former National Security Advisor of lying. One is know for lying almost constantly and often quite badly. The other has a reputation of being outspoken and somewhat controversial but has never been accuse of lying. So the liar doesn't like the tell all book the second in publishing and accuses the second of lying. Who would believe that. Books need to include interesting things in order to sell. The details revealed in the book are clearly reasonably accurate recollections. The opinions and conclusions are those of the author so everyone is free to draw their own. However we already know who the liar is.

Virus

Ultimately the only way we are going to co-exist with the current virus is when we achieve herd immunity like we have with so many of its predescessors.  Getting to that point is the hard part. The natural way would be to allow the virus to spread infecting almost everyone.  

 This is the way we had to do it before we developed modern medicine and our current ability to develop vacines.  It results in many deaths that were simply the natural cost of acquiring herd immunity.

If we fail to develop a vaccine ultimately we will eventually experience it this way.  There are ways to "flatten the curve" but that is essentially a way to simply spread out the cost.  This is based on the assumption that the virus has become widespread and prevalent, which the statistics clearly indicate.  

This cost is considered way too high.

We instead have some medical option that we are pursuing.  The one that would provide the best option is developing a vaccine that would essentially create here immunity on an expedited basis. That is the best option.

While we wait we also are developing treatments that reduce the mortality rate.  These efforts have been varied.  

Still it's hopeful.

Judging vs Shooting.

We live in a country where a lot of people have a lot of guns.  The argument by gun advocates that wide ownership of guns make us safer.  The logic is that if you know everyone has a gun you will be reluctant to use yours.

 

In reality it just means you have to shoot first.

 

It is reasonable for the police to believe that a lot of the people they encounter are armed and at least potentially dangerous.  So they shoot first, understandably.

 

Its not acceptable and because of inbred cultural issues, the people they are most suspicious of are often black.

 

We tend to attribute this to racism but our gun culture has to take some of the blame. 

 

Statistics show us that the violence is not all directed at black people but clearly more young black men are victims than others.  They are viewed with the most suspicion.

 

We have seen some atrocious videos that are unjustifiable.  Those police need to answer for their actions.

 

We also need to improve the way police interact with black citizens.  Both sides consider the other dangerous and as a result the interactions escalate quickly.

 

Changing this is not going to be easy and previous efforts have not been successful.  Partly because in a perfectly reasonable conclusion police would rather be judged by twelve than be carried by six.

 

Of course ideally no one ends up in a coffin.

 

 

The Stink of the Electon

One of the things that has changed, or at least it seems so to me, is the way we act towards people we disagree with.  

For example if you favor providing health care to everyone and someone else doesn't, you can argue the facts or attack their character.  The questions should be about how to pay for it and if it is affordable, not that the person taking the other position is a despicable crook.

Of course while it didn't just start it seems like in the last election we saw a significant escalation, first in the Republican primaries then in the general election.  Baseless accusations of criminal activities and chants of lock her up may have had an impact on the outcome and while she has never been charge or certainly convicted of any illegal activity, many people in this country believe in her guilt.

There are a couple of factors in play here, first the internet and the ability of lies to be widely circulated.

There is really no question in my mind that the Republican candidate last time was probably the least qualified person at every debate, but the use of name calling and wild claims seemed to be enough. 

It doesn't seem like we are going back to civility any time soon so the fact is we might just have to live amid the garbage being spewed for a few cycles.  

It will only stop when it doesn't work.

Stop Shooting Black Men for Nothing

From what I understand of the incident in Atlanta, a young black man, possibly drunk, fell asleep in a drive thru lane in his car.  Now sleeping in a drive thru lane is generally not very polite, but it was at most an inconvenience as other customers had to drive around his car.

It turned into a capital offense.  

Now it was likely he was guilty of a DUI but its hard to determine how these things escalate so quickly.  Should he have cooperated with the police, clearly but he had never got his burger and frosty so you can understand why he was upset.

They tased him twice but he managed to get ahold of one of the tasers and may have discharged it at one of the officers.  He then started to run away at which point deadly force was employed.

Considering that he was likely drunk or under the influence of some substance running from multiple police in Wendy's parking lot, you have to wonder what led to the need for this.

They may have already got his name, they had his car and while a DUI and resisting arrest are significant charges, they don't merit the death penalty.

Maybe the one officer who had lost his Taser was so upset that he simply lost it.  He has been fired and may be charged.

Rayshard Brooks was probably no angel and he certainly shouldn't have fallen asleep in a drive thru lane.  Maybe someone had a complicated order that took too long.

He won't do it again.

Saints and Sinners

Does it matter what your background was if an injustice is perpetrated on you? 

Suppose some of the victims in Hitler's death camps were actually bad people would that make a difference?  The odds are that out of 6 million there were some bad apples.

Similarly in Stalin's Gulag we are sure to find some people who had done bad things.  The guilty weren't treated better than the innocent?

Clearly an injustice is not vindicated because of unrelated bad acts.  We see a lot of kneejerk reactions to the George Floyd killing by people trying to say he wasn't a saint.  He didn't have to be.  Being a human should have been enough.  In fact we wouldn't let them treat an animal like that.

It was clear for all to see that a person already constrained was killed by the actions of a police officer while others looked on.  It isn't justifiable and it isn't even clear that there was any reason for the behavior.

I'll even speculate that murder wasn't intended.   Maybe the cop was trying to send a message or maybe he was just sadistic.  The fact that they worked at the same club makes on wonder if there wasn't some history involved, but it actually doesn't matter.

Whether you have been a saint or a sinner or something in between, deadly force should only be applied when there is no reasonable alternative.  Kneeling on someone's neck until they die is just wrong 

Juneteenth in Tulsa?

There are many things in history that are glossed over or misstated, after all it is written by the victors.  Even in incidents where the victors have nothing to boast about.  We are currently seeking reactions to some memorials that commemorate people from history who are being viewed differently.

Whether you agree that Columbus mistreated native Americans in pursuit of wealth of if you celebrate his heroism for venturing on a hazardous ocean voyage is often a matter of perspective.  

One event that happened nearly 100 years ago in Tulsa Oklahoma had no victors but lots of victims.  The Greenwood massacre wiped out a black neighborhood called Black Wallstreet.  

The ostensible reason was an incident involving a black teenager and a white female elevator operator.   What actually happened is unclear, the young man was lynched, but it sparked one of the worst white riots ever experienced in this country.

While it was covered up for many years or misrepresented it is now well known.

What makes this relevant today is that in a period of significant unrest over racism, the 

President has decided to hold a rally there on Juneteenth, a date significant to the black community.  

Whole you may think the President is entitled to have a rally any where, and he is, but this looks like a slap in the face to black Americans.

Really?

Choice.

To some extent as restrictions are lifted you get the feeling that a lot of people feel the danger of the virus has passed.  It hasn't.

The only real question is whether it will be a second wave similar to the first one or just a persistent background infection.  That is really up to all of us.

 

Some of the places where the pandemic did minor damage have assumed they are safe.  They aren't as we are seeing in some of the numbers. 

 

Viruses spread based on the number on targets available.  Clearly in large metropolitan areas it spread early and quickly.  It doesn't give up and unless you eliminate it, it will reemerge quickly.

 

It is entirely up to us.  Imagine you were forced to go to a country where a deadly virus was rampant and it was necessary to wear some protective equipment, avoid close personal contact and do things like wash your hands, dis-infect objects and exercise care to avoid it.

 

You are in that country.  If you ignore the warnings you still might be OK, most people survive the virus, but you might end up infecting vulnerable members of your family or friends.

 

Its your choice.

Historic Year?

The year 2020 has had some significant events and will most likely be remembered as a milestone year in many ways.

 

In addition to the Pandemic we had demonstrations related to police brutality that may change the way they operate going forward as regards interactions with Black Americans.  It may not change the culture but of course that remains to be seen.

 

What we have seen, at least according to the polls, a change in many white American attitudes about the extent of the problem.

 

It was pretty common to attribute the incidents to a small minority of the police and it wasn't systemic.  However the video of a Minneapolis police kneeling on the throat of a black man in cuffs while three others did nothing as he said he couldn't breathe and passed out and die.

 

It took awhile to file charges which led to the eruption of protests as well as looting and rioting. 

 

Normally this sort of violence would have resulted in outrage against the protestors and to some extent it did, but the failure of the administration to recognize the validity of the complaints led to an opposite reaction.  The violence subsided and the ongoing violence reversed with police being filmed causing issues.

 

Some of the original violence may have also been committed by provocateur's but regardless following actions by the current President where he gassed peaceful protestors to stage a photo op, the tide seemed to turn.

 

Opinion polls now reflect strong support for the right to protest and police reform.

 

This is also a Presidential election year with control of the Senate at stake. 

 

What happens in November is of course still to be determined but it could be an historic election as well.

 

A historic year?  It certainly seems so.

Race?

When the protests started they were accompanied by a wave of looting and rioting which provided the naysayers ammunition.  They equated the peaceful protestors with essentially out of control animals who didn't have adequate human qualities to actually protest.  They were wrong as we have seen peaceful protests continue after the first wave of violence subsided.

Who was actually creating the mayhem is a bit unclear, possible a criminal element, maybe outside agitators trying to discredit the protests or even possibly some protestors who went off the rails.  Still while increased police activity certainly helped it was largely via self policing that the protests have proceeded in a peaceful manner.

Of course the perception of many white people underscores a basic problem in our society.  The idea that people of a different color are somehow different.  That they don't share the fundamental qualities that make us human.

It is this perception that feeds racism.  Unfortunately history shows us how easy it is to dehumanize others who are somehow different than us.  The Jews in Europe were treated as subhuman for much of history.  We tend to think of the Nazis as unique in their beliefs, but not so much.  The idea that the Aryan race was superior was not a one time thing.  

It helps to maintain control when you create a enemy who is both evil and inferior.  It makes it easier to oppress and/or kill them.  After all they don't have the same feelings you have. Their lives are not as important.

It is so pervasive that many don't even realize they feel this way.  However if you ever ask or think, what do they want, you have isolated "them".  Once you recognize that they are the same as you, you already know what they want.

Fixing the Police?

One of the questions being discussed is whether police departments can be reformed or if they need to be dismantled and rebuilt.  Most consider this idea pretty radical and it is unlikely to happen (dismantlement) but is it even worth considering.

When you view the police a lot has to do with who you are and your station in life.  Most white people see police as protectors who keep us safe.  However many Americans have a different viewpoint.

Currently its the left and Black Lives Matter movements that are in focus, but we shouldn't ignore the fact that many on the right consider the police oppressors who enforce Government tyranny.  Many of them seem to have a love hate relationship with the police depending a lot on the nature of the police they deal with.  Still while they may very well be in favor of anarchy they aren't actually demanding dismantlement at this time.

So the issue is related to the current situation mostly.  Many black Americans see the police as an occupying force who place their lives and their children's lives at risk.  Of course this is hardly a universal opinion there and I think that many older black Americans realize that they need police to maintain some level of law and order.  

Still incident after incident has led many to think that the police are more dangerous than helpful.  Clearly the statistics indicate otherwise but the incidents where young black males are apprehended for effectively being black are too numerous to abide.  Weeding out the ones that behave that way has been apparently too challenging  So do we need to rip it down and rebuild it.

How do we solve this problem.  Our black citizens, even if they break the law, should expect the police to treat them as citizens.  I've had a few interactions with the police over the years and never felt that my life was being threatened.  However black citizens have very different experiences. 

I and most of the people I know thought these were isolated instances and I would still like to think they are.  However, it seems that they are more pervasive than believed.  

It needs to be fixed but tearing down police departments and rebuilding them is no guarantee things would be better.  We need the police to self manage this.  The blue wall is a long tradition but that tradition needs to control those who abuse their power.  

Large police departments have years and years of tradition and changing it would require a lot of effort.  It is needed if the police are going to earn the trust of the black communities.

Return to Normal?

There will be a time, hopefully soon, when we return to normal life.

The question is how will it be different than it was before we had the virus and the demonstrations.

It won't be exactly the same, or at least it shouldn't be.

Expect to see many people wearing face masks for the foreseeable future.  This is a strategy that seems to have had significant success in some Asian countries, Japan in particular.  Of course once there is a vacine or at least an effective treatment it is only prudent.

Some act like wearing a mask is a political statement.  Its a health statement.  If you choose to believe it doesn't work don't wear one.

Even with the mask some social distancing is likely to continue.

More working from home, less handshakes and fewer in person meetings.  Oddly this was a trend before the virus that will now be expedited. 

I think the explosion in home deliveries may very well continue as people have gotten used to them.  It may be a sign of the future as we move more and more towards a gig economy.

The bigger question is going to be interaction with the Police.  There has to be changes, especially with regards towards our minority communities.  We need to live in an America where the police make you safer than you would be otherwise.

Yes they need to apprehend criminals and in our culture there is a surplus of violence going around.  How to protect the police and the public is the challenge.  

One would think not strangling the public would be a good first step.

Good Economic News!

We saw a rebound in jobs in May as most layoffs had already occurred and the economy adjusted to our current situation.

One of the reasons for the surprise is because so much of the prediction is based on trend analysis.  Statistics are wonderful tools, but a statistic measures a real world event.  I haven't seen a decent analysis of what happened but just from what was obvious was there was a tremendous increase in the need for certain jobs, like delivery and warehouse workers, while the non-essential worker layoffs had already happened.

There was another factor I haven't seen discussed so I don't know how significant it was but we gave business paycheck continuation incentives.

Still more people on payrolls is a good thing and the stock market responded.  The stock market has been doing well regardless but this impetus gave it a very good day indeed.

It remains to be seen how fast the newly unemployed get their old jobs back or new ones.  Its likely that many of the better paying jobs will be automated if possible.  We also know many businesses are simply not coming back.

This is still a very rich country and the wealthiest people have not suffered like the average person.  We pumped a tremendous amount of stimulus into the economy that we will have to pay for.  Further many debts that were deferred are going to come due.

I anticipate some difficult day ahead for people in low skill jobs.  Some service jobs are likely to increase as the gig economy jobs have become more popular.  I have grown very fond of grocery delivery and while I do think I might want to do it once and awhile imagine using a service I never really used before the Pandemic.

Unfortunately while simply my impression, it seems similar to what happened when manufacturing left.  Jobs that replaced them were low paying service jobs.  

Still work is generally good and we will adjust.

Black Lives Matter

No one is saying black lives matter and others don't.  They are saying black lives matter as much as everyone else.

The history of this country clearly demonstrates that this hasn't been true.  It's time that every person regardless of race, sex, religion or any other difference gets treated with respect.

We live in a country where many minorities live in areas that have high levels of drug use and crime.  This isn't by choice, it was either the best they could afford or we steered them there.

The children are sent to sub par schools and we see generation after generation faced with poor prospects, ongoing racism and the prospect of being shot down for next to nothing by police who at times act like an occupying force.

What is actually remarkable is how many of them hold down jobs, support their families and strive to find the American dream.  Some have succeeded against the odds.  Others lured by money or acceptance find their way into gangs and drug use.

Its not that different than it was in the early part of this century when we saw the rise of various ethnic gangs like the mafia.  

Violence is bad and that includes violence against any citizen.  Some have given police too much latitude is treating innocent black men badly.  

Black lives matter.  The fact that it needs to be said is the sad part.

Leadership?

What we have seen so far in 2020 is the ability of our President to deal with difficult situations.

 While he wasn't the reason for all the issues but he did have to demonstrate some leadership and oversight.

He didn't do well, although he says he did.

His handling of the coronavirus was atrocious.  He had dismantled our best chance to respond to it, didn't treat it as real, didn't secure enough PEP, spent mor time claiming he did everything right and placed blame wherever he could.  We had the most deaths of any country in the world.

This led to the economic collapse that left unemployment near depression levels.  This was the result of our poor response to the virus and not sure what he could have done better.  His main goal seemed to be to pass the blame and make sure his pals got as much stimulus as possible.

One of the underlying themes of this administration is the support for racism and white supremacists.  This led, at least indirectly to the horrific event in Minneapolis where a group of police killed a handcuffed black man who was already restrained.  As horrific as the video is, it raises the question as to how often did other cases not get video evidence?

The protests and riot that followed were not something he was able to deal with except via hiding and threats.  The looters and protesters were often different groups but we one again had horrific videos.  Certainly there is plenty of blame to go around but when the nation was in chaos we had a delayed presidential response that while giving some acknowledgement to the underlying situation was primarily a threat.  It wasn't effective but as I said there is plenty of blame here.

This has all been accompanied by a drop in the polls which may or may not be indicative of the results in November.   

Other challenges are likely to arise, not the least of which might be the second wave of the virus.

We can be pretty sure there won't be any real leadership then either. 

Will Anything Change?

Nationwide protests, rampant looting and generally expressions of support and promises to reform but will anything actually change?

 

Certainly most police don't behave as atrociously as kneeling on a handcuffed prisoners neck until he dies but remember the other officers there didn't intervene.  One thing that happens to authority figures with power is that they start to consider themselves special.

 

They aren't, they have a dangerous and difficult job but they are citizens just like everyone else.  They need to treat their felloe citizens as equals and with respect.  Yes some need to be subdued and others may end up shot as they resist but those should be last resorts. 

 

One major impediment is that there is a long history of racial antagonism which has led many police to view African Americans with distrust.  Overcoming this won't be easy but it is possible.

 

Racial profiling is the problem and we have racial profiling because of some fairly isolated incidents.  I really don't know how many white criminals react violently to traffic stops, we generally don't hear about them, but African Americans who do tend to become well publicized

 

We amplify everything they do and a sort of lore builds up that makes police more afraid and suspicious.  Reversing that is a long arduous task.

 

Yes traffic stops can go badly but the police should treat all of them the same way. 

 

Until we start equal treatment we are not likely going to see any real change.

Justice for George Floyd

There is a lot of reason to believe that the part of the George Floyd protests getting the most attention, the rioting is being pushed by groups unrelated to the actual protests.  How true that is and who these groups are is still to be determined, but we do have videos and some arrests of people solely out to do mayhem.

The point is that the idea would be to divert from the main point about the situation.  Young Black men are killed by police far to often for almost no reason at all.

Violence is bad and killing someone is the worst violence.  Protests are appropriate but in todays age there are groups determined to keep chaos supreme. It certainly isn't clear that this has anything to do with the actual protesters, but the message of that protest is being subverted.

The problem with many of the protests, as I see it, is that they were organized by well meaning people who were unprepared or unequipped to control agitators.  Someone has to de-escalate what is going on without losing the message that the system still results in too many examples of injustice.

Will justice prevail?  The odds are against it but it has a chance.  What constitutes justice is open to debate.

Legally third degree murder is probably the right charge but for some it isn't.

Preventing this in the future is also important.  Police have a tough job but they need to serve and protect all people.

Us vs Them is simply wrong.

Avoiding a Second Wave

It seems like we are soon going to see the end of most Covid 19 restrictions.  Wearing masks, washing hands, avoiding crowds is likely to stay with us and depending on how bad the second wave is might last quite a while.

There is some discussion of whether there will or will not be a second wave.  Considering human nature and our previous experiences, I believe we will have one, but we don't have to.

Some will follow all the proper measures and others won't and since the numbers indicate that most people have no immunity, the cases will rise, maybe not as dramatically but maybe in a more widespread manner.  

Infectious diseases spread steadily and insidiously throughout the population.  Since many people can carry the infection without exhibiting symptoms, it is certainly spreading to certain areas as we speak.  Its biggest targets of opportunity were our urban centers and that wave has mostly happened.  Not completely over but in some retreat.

Our greatest hope would be that many more people were infected than we know and that infection grants immunity.  Since exposure to the disease would have generated antibodies that will activate quickly upon a new exposure, some immunity is almost certain.  Immunity though is about getting sick from the virus.  If you are carrying it but defeating it, you may still spread it.

When it was at its peak it didn't cause symptoms in a lot of infected.  I've seen estimates that up to 80% of infected people had no symptoms.  Generally it had the worst impact upon people with other health issues who often were elderly.

So the infections will spread but the number of victims (people who get sick and die) is uncertain.  It may also be worse in the fall like cold and flu generally is.

Some things are only know when they are known.  Predictions can be useful but they are estimates and estimates can be wrong.  

Its not a political thing, its a virus thing so taking precautions is for everybody.