Saturday, January 19, 2019

Economy?

Sometimes I wonder if the American economy is sustainable?

It has become largely a consumer economy where economic prosperity relies upon people shopping.

The more optimistic they feel the more they shop.

We see the impact of negative news in how fast the economy can go from boom to crises.

The last financial crisis was a result of the sub prime mortgages.  Effectively, as long as home prices were going up, or, people believed they were, the loans were safe, since the property that secured them was worth more than the debt.  Than they weren't.

Once the crisis hit property values plummeted, wealth disappeared, and we went into a deep recession which we only sort of got out of with a lot of Government stimulus.

Some of that continues and in fact our new administration added some in the form of corporate tax breaks.

However, the economy strikes me as very fragile.

While unemployment is low, a lot of the employed are underemployed, meaning they used to have better jobs.

Workforce participation is still low by historical standards meaning fewer and fewer support more and more.

The deficit and the national debt are exploding and student debt imposes a burden on our young people.

It just wouldn't take much to see much of the economy collapse.

When you look underneath it you see the supports are starting to fail.




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