Time Will Tell

Another day another tariff.  Ho hum.

The impact of the additional taxes are being felt by some and inevitably they will be felt by almost everyone.

These more than offset for individuals any benefit from the corporate tax relief they passed earlier this year.

The only slightly good thing about them is that they will to some extent reduce our annual deficit a bit, although the negative impact on the economy may actually offset that.

Similar to the claim that the positive impact of the tax reductions would pay for itself.

That didn't happen and isn't going to happen, but negative impacts do reduce tax receipts since people lose jobs and have to claim benefits.

We are still creating jobs and the economy is maintain the growth patterns established under the previous administration and what will tip the next recession is still uncertain.

Recessions happen periodically as trends start to reverse, jobs get lost, benefits get claimed and the economy goes negative for a number of quarters.

We have a lot of good things in the economy and to a certain extent, we have already absorbed the major reduction in income caused by the changes in our economy due to technology.

Still they do start out slowly sometimes until they pick up speed and I see a few signs that could be troubling.

Last quarters growth was due to a speed up in imports to avoid tariffs that will reduce future growth, just how much is uncertain.

Tariffs will impact growth.

Our immigration policies impact growth.

Interest rates impact growth.

Is any one of these enough?  Maybe, maybe not, could be something else completely.

Time will tell.