Thursday, April 27, 2017

Tax Proposal

The tax proposal is based on a specific premise that has not proven true in the past.  If you let wealthy people and businesses keep more of the money they make, they will use that to make more money and jobs.

Now to be clear, they will use the extra money to make more money, but whether that has a meaningful impact on jobs is the questionable part.

In one way the question that is significant is that reduced taxes means less spending by the Government, or at least it should.  The Government doesn't keep money lying around, all of it goes to providing services or benefits which puts that money into circulation, almost exclusively in this country.

So you have Government jobs or money provided to people who spend it almost immediately generating jobs in various consumer areas.

Wealthy people have many more options.

Many of these options don't involve spending the money or investing the money in this country.

Some of those investments will go to foreign countries where it may in fact generate some jobs.

Some will go to improved technology that will eliminate some jobs while creating some in the areas where the technology is built, which doesn't have to be in this country.

Some may be spent on foreign luxury items which is certainly good for the countries producing those items.

Now the uses of the money are all legal and legitimate and I certainly don't begrudge them the choice on how to spend their money. 

I am simply pointing out that except in a fantasy world the money doesn't build up coal mines, or steel factories or pretty much any other American industry to any great extent.  Industry expands to satisfy customer demand. Yes, reducing cost may reduce the cost supply cost that might have some impact on demand, but its not true when the customers already have plenty of cheap supply.

Of course changes in price would impacts demand to some extent, but the cost of production is much more dependent of actual production costs, not taxes.  There have always been ways to avoid taxes and the actual impact of a lower tax rate is hard to determine.

But French wine producers and German car manufacturers should have a good year.

American coal miners and factory workers, not as much.

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