Thursday, October 25, 2018

Radical America

American politics are defined by the two party system.  This isn't the case in most other democracies where they have a parliamentary system which allows smaller parties to be represented.

Couple that with our primary system where the party candidates are often nominated by the most active segment of the party we see how their positions have become more and more entrenched.

Studies show that the voting population falls into certain behavioral categories, some always vote as a civic responsibility, some never vote because they are apolitical or apathetic and then you have the sometimes voters.

The best way to get sometimes voters to vote is to make them angry, it is the best motivator.

Most angry voters are not generally voting for moderates.  It is one of the factors that has led to the radicalization of both parties and the reason we don't see much in the way of bi-partisan legislation.

The clear majority of Americans are in fact more moderate than the two parties are, although of course its most pronounced in those who register as independents. Not all of these are really independent but about 30% of the electorate is not registered with either party.

This of course means that those who do register with a party are pretty likely to be at least somewhat committed to its fundamentals, although some register based on region or family influence.

So we have a system where each party nominates a candidate which effectively restricts the voters choices.  Those candidates are often picked in primaries by the groups most angry and generally more radicalized than the general electorate.  This leads to elections where many feel the choices are both bad.

The 2016 election shows what happens when an old school candidate faces off against a more radical opponent.  Hillary Clinton of course had baggage but was clearly well qualified.  However being too establishment and not "progressive" enough left her vulnerable to apathy among voters she needed.  Her lose was really based on a very small number of voters in key states which is most likely due to a lack of enthusiasm among some of her base.

The mid-terms may be characterized by a whole different dynamic, it remains to be seen, but the radicalization of America is going to continue.  Its sort of built in.






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