Sunday, July 14, 2019

Economic Thoughts

We keep hearing about how good the economy is and by many measures it is doing well, unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.

However it is also true that these measures don't capture the reality many people face daily.

First Student debt is crippling for many who effectively mortgaged much of their future for a degree.

If you have the right degree and skills it may very well pay off, but many of our graduates end up working in jobs that give them little hope of paying off that debt, let alone accumulate enough to say buy a house or raise a family.

Farmers are suffering because of competition and our trade disputes with China who was a major buyer.  They can find other suppliers to satisfy their needs as more and more areas are cultivated at the cost of rain forests.

There has been effectively no progress in bringing back high paying mining and manufacturing jobs.  Yes some have been kept and a few have been created but most of the jobs being created are in highly technical areas or low paying service jobs.

The tax law provided significant savings and profits to many companies who used that money to pay dividends buy back stocks or increase executive compensation.  The wealth gap keeps increasing as the few derive the most benefits while the many tread water.

It did increase the deficit and therefore the national debt which is being managed because of the low interest rates but is eventually going to be a problem.  Its not a question of it, just when.

So is the economy strong?  Well it reminds me most of the early days of this century when many lived off homeowner equity by refinancing again and again.  It worked until one day it didn't.

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