Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Statistics and Reality

People like o look at statistics and believe they reflect what is actually happening and they do in a certain way.  However take a simple statistic I saw the other day saying a certain company was having its best year since 1990.  Well it was about the stock price and that company's stock had virtually collapsed in the last year.  It recovered from the lows and had therefore a big percentage increase.  Of course the company was doing much better years ago and the percentage increase did not make up for the fact that the stock was around 20% of its one time high.

The same is true with the statistics about the economy.  Unemployment is low, true, but workforce participation is low.  Wages are increasing, true, but from lower bases.  Wages are for most working people no where near where they once were.

Things not accurately measured in statistics, at least not the economic ones are the other risky changes to most Americans.  Pensions have been eliminated at many companies and while they offer self investment plans, many don't participate because it means a lower paycheck.  Issues with social security add a degree of uncertainty to many people.

Health insurance is also a high risk for many even if they have coverage now.  Its in danger or the contributions required keep increasing.  Sure the stock market is up but working class Americans are generally not big shareholders, except maybe in a company 401K if they participate.

Housing is up, but not at the level is once was and many young people have onerous student debt to contend with.  The reality is see is that most people struggle to make ends meet and dig themselves deeper into debt to afford some nice things.  Some are doing much better than that.

Is the economy as good as the statistics say?  Well the statistics are correct, but the reality is just different.  An increase of a few percent in average wages is not changing anybody's life.  A secure future and secure health care would.

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