Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Complex Things

Business can be quite complex in its operation, but its not complex in how you determine success or what to do.  Does it make enough profit provides a clear answer to most decisions.

Yes sometimes other factors enter in, but ultimately it is the bottom line that matters.

Sometimes determining what the bottom line will be can be very hard and sometimes not so much.

However, if something will make enough money the decision becomes fairly easy.

Some people have a real talent at seeing this and they are frequently your most successful CEOs.

Of course some make bad decisions and have bankruptcies and failures but the future is clearly always somewhat uncertain.

However, once you eliminate the profit element it gets more complex.

The Government works in an area where the services asked for are often unlimited and are provided despite their cost.

The defense department is not a profit making operation and has to determine spending priorities based on other outcomes.

Similarly the VA, Homeland Security, State and other departments have to perform a mission without being able to measure profit or loss.

Of course in the operation of those departments there are similarities to how company's operate with payroll costs, equipment and day to day operations, but there is no profit or loss at the end of the day.

In addition, the people you serve are generally quite demanding, the oversight is never ending nor is the second guessing.

Like a sports official, the best outcome is to actually not be noticed, because being noticed is generally the result of some failure.

This add a complexity to Government that is absent form private business, namely what is success.

Of course the ultimate success in Government is to get reelected, but the heads of Agencies don't run in elections.

The final complexity in Government is that while companies have Board of Directors to question a CEO as well as stockholders, the Government has two branches of Congress and the electorate which all have different goals. 

We have some interesting times coming.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Hate Mongers

Every nationality and religion has its own customs and practices.  Each of those come from something in their history or culture.

They may seem strange or odd to people not raised in that group, similar to how certain American customs seem odd to foreigners.

Pointing our these differences and using them to create unease and/or hate is a common tactic during times of conflict.

If you look at the countries of Western Europe, who share so much, the Germans were demonized by the British and French during the wars and vice versa.

Now of course there were some horrible things done during World War 2 but that was a result of the Germans demonizing a group within its own borders.

Now here n America we aren't very different. We sometimes think we are, but history proves us wrong.

We have a long history of demonizing new groups and even our black people over the years.

It continues to this day.

I see things that are simply hate propaganda spread by people who should know better.

Muslims are not all jihadists and if they want to practice sharia law, that is no different than what other religions do.

Undocumented immigrants aren't getting a free ride, in fact they generally work harder than many of those spreading these lies.

The thing to remember is that the lies you spread about others, may result in the lies about you tomorrow.



Sunday, February 26, 2017

Alternate Facts and Reality

There was a news story about how Mohammad Ali JR was detained at an airport and questioned about his name and religion.

Since he is travelling under a US Passport and was born in this country you might wonder why they wanted to know those things.

I would understand if he was selected for extra screening, this seems to happen somewhat randomly, but where he got his name or what religion he is seems bigoted.

Now today the TSA said they didn't inquire about his name, only asked if he was an Arab and how he got his name.  Now, his passport was clearly an American one and maybe they suspected that it was a false one.

However, saying he wasn't profiled when clearly those are profiling questions, is another example of these alternate facts.

We have a bigot in the white house and he is inspiring more bigotry.  Its getting to be open season.

Now preventing terrorism is of course something I and everybody I know supports.  However stopping American citizens who have Islamic names or who are Muslim is not combating terrorism.

Its simply bigotry.

Can you imagine them questioning an American citizen like this if he was buying a gun?

Those same bigots would be screaming about the 2nd Amendment.

Of course due process is also an important provision in the constitution and whether this meets that criteria will be determined in court.

Reality tells us that a persons country of origin is not an indicator of potential terrorist acts.  Being a member of a terrorist organization is.

The first does not serve as a proxy for the second.

I prefer we stay with reality.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Is this a Remake of the Producers

The movie and then the Broadway play is about a producer and accountant who figure out that they can make more money with a flop than a hit and go out and try to find the most offensive play possible to guarantee they lose money.

However, its so bad it turns out to be popular and the whole scheme backfires.

There is reason to believe that we have seen something like that in the last election.

There were a lot of rumors that Trump was doing the whole thing to renegotiate his apprentice contract, thinking that an unsuccessful run would put him in a better position to make money.

But he ran such a bad campaign, appealing to all the worst elements in America and getting support from mindless Republicans that he is now in the White House.

Not by very much, about 100,000 voters in three states would have swung the election, but there he is despite losing the popular vote by almost 3 million.

Now, the apprentice money is probably going to dry up since the ratings were so bad and his other business operations are taking some hits, plus its much more time consuming than he would like.

In the Producers after the scam blew up they went to jail, although still sort of lovable.

Trump may very well feel locked up and abused and still tweets in the middle of the night like a frustrated teenager.

Its hard to imagine he will make it through a single term but you never know so can just wait and see.

So Trump is Max.

Pence is Leo

Bannon is Franz

Melania is Ulla

And Spicer is Roger.

Enjoy.






Friday, February 24, 2017

Playing Hard Ball

Spring training has started and the season is approaching soon.  Time to play hard ball with the new team on the block.

Most of the people in this country share a certain set of values but some don't.  For whatever reason they want to promote an agenda of hate and discrimination.

There is no compromise with that.

Our elected representatives need to defend the values that define America, especially justice for all.

The constitution was written to protect all residents, citizens and non-citizens, it doesn't restrict its protections, when it was written many people here were immigrants.

People of a different faith need to be respected.

People who share love differently must be respected.

We are a country of diverse peoples and each person has the right to live their life as they choose if they don't infringe on someone else's rights.

Some eat pork, some don't, we can't make everyone eat pork, and we can't make everyone follow a particular religion.

We can't make everyone dress a certain way or read the same books or talk the same way.

We are still the sons and daughters of liberty and those that oppose liberty must themselves be opposed.








Deplorables

During the campaign when the democratic nominee commented that half of Trumps supporters were like a basket of deplorables, which she identified as racist, xenophobic, homophobic bigots, many of his supporters adopted the title.

Of course they didn't actually think they were deplorable, but of course they really are.

They are in bed with the people who want to discriminate and hate others.

The issue is that if you support ideas of hate, but claim they don't represent who you are, who cares?

They will know them by their actions.

Oddly these are also the people who are likely to be the most harmed by the administrations actions.

Increase the cost of imported goods will make everything more expensive.

Lost exports will devastate our farmers who rely on exports.

Remove environmental pollution standards will increase the incidence of cancer and other diseases while removing their health care.

Coal has been replaced by natural gas in most electric generating plants and that is not going to be reversed, but they will get more drinking water contamination via fracking.

Automation has eliminated many jobs, but failure to invest in and explore this new technology means the new jobs will be done overseas.

Failing to understand the consequences of climate change and trying to slow or stop them will hurt all of us, including our deplorables.

Mortgages will get more expensive as interest rates rise pricing them out of home ownership.

The attacks on social security and medicare will threaten their retirement years, most won't ever be able to retire.

I guess the time they want to return to is represented by the dust bowl and great depression. 

There will be jobs for pickers out there in California.


Thursday, February 23, 2017

America a Third World Country

Outside of our military, America is by no means near the rest of the developed world in things like health care, education, old age benefits  or in fact almost anything.

We have gun violence that rivals even the most crime ridden countries.

We have a mostly apathetic population that is generally ill informed on current events and is so parochial that they hardly speak their own language well.

We do have some educated, wealthy elites who buy elections and keep much of the population in the dark.

We have large police forces that gun down unarmed civilians in the streets with near impunity.

We see a congress that does almost nothing except argue among themselves and rely on the President to take some sort of action.

We want to expel hard working residents who have done nothing wrong except coming here for a better life.

We treat women like second class citizens dictating to them what decisions they can make about their own bodies and futures.

We have many citizens who want to establish religious laws and customs that all must follow.

We promote military values and have troops stationed around the world promoting our business interests.

We are defunding our arts and cultural establishments and relying on mass entertainment to placate the masses.

We have large number of homeless people that we let roam the streets in certain neighborhoods.

We have given drugs to mentally ill people and sent them on their way.

Our prisons are overflowing and we bid them out to be run at a profit.

We have manipulated our districts so that votes are unequal and one party rule is getting institutional.

We are reducing our investments in future technologies and giving that money to our richest people via tax breaks.

We were fortunate that two great wars were fought on other people's territories, and provided a growth spurt, but we are now on our own and not doing very well. 

We want to go back to a system where we let people die or go broke because of unaffordable health care bills.

We are infested with alcoholics and drug addicts who can't function is the real world.

We ignore science and promote creationism, ignore climate change and think vaccinations are optional.

People like to talk about how America is exceptional.  The question is in what direction? 

We have the biggest military in the world so like the schoolyard bully people act nice to us.  Don't let that fool you.



Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Random Stuff

The president read a carefully prepared statement condemning racism and anti-Semitism, had to be scripted for him so he would get it right.

Some people want to boycott the Oscars because of all the liberals, but they weren't invited in the first place.

Guess they won't watch it on TV (but you know they will).

Gonna have round two of the travel restrictions soon, can they figure out language to discriminate against a religion that doesn't sound like it does?

I saw a segment on John Oliver's show where he demonstrated how Trump says something ridiculous, which the media reports which his followers believe which he then says is something people are saying.  Chicken and egg issue here.

We have at least provided the world with some entertainment, although I'm sure we are also scaring the hell out of them.

Its been a pretty mild winter and spring is getting close.  Almost time to start the immigrant round ups.

Obama expelled more illegal immigrants than anyone, but he doesn't get much credit from the trump people for that.

Of course they only believe the edited stuff they get on faux fox. 

Now take the fake news about the Affordable Care Act.  It provided affordable health care to about 30 million people but did have a few negative consequences for people who weren't eligible for subsidies and not covered at work.  Something that could have been fixed if better health care was the plan.

The problem the republicans have is how to actually do something, since they only learned how to stop things.

I don't expect much and maybe the only real hope is that they come to a stalemate. 

In fact the less the current government manages to do the better off we all will be.





Tuesday, February 21, 2017

The Intolerance of Americans

One of the things that seems clearer and clearer over the years is that most people in this country really don't believe in American values as expressed in the Constitution.

They don't believe in freedom of religion unless its freedom to be a Christian.

They don't believe in freedom of the press, they prefer lies.

Concerning due process, they don't care if the police gun down "certain people" in the streets.

Many of them aren't all that found of equal protection provisions.

They don't really want the checks and balances provided for, prefer a strongman who does what he wants.

The list goes on unfortunately.

Luckily, the constitution was written for exactly this situation, to protect the individual from the mob.

Of course, the courts are therefore driving these people crazy, protecting people who they don't think deserve protection.

It makes them so mad they drop their Christian values too, which require us to love one another.

Hate the sin but not the sinner is forgotten by them as they have a whole lot of hate to go around.

Except they have a lot of love for the people who actually oppress them, the business people and owners who shut down the factories and the coal mines to maximize profits.

Somehow they think it was the Government, and the Government is generally controlled by those people, so they let it happen. 

But it was done to make more money, not to promote some Government policy. 

Free trade is loved by big business which pretty much guarantees it isn't going away. 

What will happen is that business will have to pay less taxes so benefits will go away.

The deficit will increase.

Those Americans will have to learn a skill or get used to scrubbing rich people's toilets.

No one is going to care except when they need you to vote, and since you buy into all the lying, that's not a big problem either.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Presidents Day or George Washington's Birthday

Well it's the day that everyone used to call George Washington's birthday but which most now call President's day, although I heard the other day its still officially the first.

Either way we mostly have sales and I think mostly white sales which is generally appropriate considering the politics of most of them.

When we got our independence there were some who wanted to establish a monarchy here, but we didn't and we have our checks and balances government.

Now let's be clear, it isn't the best form of Government from most aspects, its not truly democratic, it tends to promote moneyed interests, more so now than ever and is generally unable with a few exceptions able to make significant changes or improvements.

In response to some crisis like the great depression, it did implement some significant social reforms and while there are those who want to dismantle them, they have become extremely popular.

Now in general this country mostly wants the Government to get our of the way, although we have an awful lot of layers and most people don't know which layer does what.  Even where the federal government pays the bills, more often than not the states and cities get to say how its spent within certain guidelines.

Its a pretty boring subject and I'm not even sure its taught in school anymore, but its hard for most Americans to figure it out.  Not that they try. 

We have some of the most apathetic citizens in the world, who only get agitated when something they actually care about is impacted, not realizing that failure to vote in local and state elections is where they really lose out.

There are better systems where you have a better idea of who stands for what, but each race in this country tends to be decided by apathy or personality.  Incumbents have name recognition so they tend to win since finding out about the issues is too hard.

We have a terrible government in general, but in fairness its exactly what we deserve.


Sunday, February 19, 2017

Nice is an Alternate Fact

The simple fact is that when you see evil, it is your responsibility to do something about it.

Now, there are instances when evil may be hard to spot, but when you actually see it you can't ignore it.

Now, sexually abusing women, or anybody actually is evil.

Terrorizing families simply trying to live peacefully is evil.

Lying to everyone in American and accusing everyone else of lying is evil.

Promoting racism is evil.

Cheating people in multiple businesses is evil.

You can not play nice with evil.  It isn't nice.

You have to oppose it every chance you get.

Now those supporting evil are themselves either evil or victims.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter, if they defend evil that are part of the problem.

Looking back at Germans who quietly disapproved of Hitler's policies doesn't mean much. 

They allowed it to happen and by being silent supported it.

You don't give evil a chance, you combat it.

There is no compromise with it, there is no being nice to it. 

Its hateful, ugly and very, very dangerous.  It needs to be stopped.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Delusion

We used to inhabit a world where reality was what we experienced.  However, going back to our earliest times we seem to have had story tellers who spun tales which allowed us to escape it and imagine worlds of Gods and monsters, heroes and villains.

The real world demanded a lot of attention as we had to struggle to eke out a living, protect ourselves and survive.

As civilization progressed, some of those things got easier and various inventions allowed us easier access to the delusional world.  First the written word replaced story telling and we developed theater and the arts.

Improvements in the world gave us more security and a greater supply of food and better housing to make the amount of time expended on these things less pressing.

In fact, human history can be measured by charting the amount of time we need to spend on basic survival versus entertainment or recreation.

Now it also obviously varies a lot based on economic status, but the one thing that kept expanding was where our stories came from.  Obviously in primitive times, everything was very local, with possibly the occasional stranger passing through.

But as we developed media, we were able to hear from farther and farther away, from people we never met or even from people long dead.

If you consider our situation today, we have more access to more information than ever before, which greatly increases how much we can be lied to.

Now people are essentially very gullible.  Not everyone, but we have grown used to accepting things we can't verify ourselves (consider the various religions of the world).  We did however tend to rely on certain people of prestige to tell us what was true and what was false.  Respected authorities could help us determine what was real and what wasn't.

Now there were always people trying to take advantage of us and sometimes they succeeded.  As Lincoln pointed out you can fool all of the people some of the time, some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

However, we have a lot of people believing things that simply aren't' true and the delusion goes all the way to the president.  However, the world has become so delusional that claims of things like uncovered terrorist attacks or widespread voter fraud are pronounced even though they are totally delusional.

We may be in the most delusional period of human history and there doesn't seem to be a path back to reality for many, since the delusions are now considered real while reality is considered false.

Sadly, reality is what is going to happen, no matter what delusions people believe.

Friday, February 17, 2017

America's Clown Team

The news that Ringling Brothers, Barnum and Bailey was going to close is a little less troublesome knowing that the clowns have some great employment opportunities with the new administration.

Hopefully they will bring a better sense of coordination and showmanship to a show that is looking like it needs a mid season tweak after just a month.

At least the promise about changing the way the world views America is working.

The only record they have set so far is that they lost the popular vote by more than any other "winner" ever. 

The good news is that what they are trying to do is so distasteful that failing to be efficient is probably a good thing.

What are they actually trying to do, eliminate maid service at most hotels? 

I guess if all the lawn mowing companies have no workers left, Americans may get a little more exercise doing yard work.

Of course someone has to pick the ripe fruit, so not sure how they plan to do that.

As far as terrorism, they are allowing mentally ill people to buy guns so think that will be a fertile area.

Destroying the health care opportunities for many Americans may also be a place where despair leads to desperate acts.

Of course the congress is so used to being dysfunctional it can't figure out how to coordinate anything.

Once again probably a good thing.

The press can't get out of their own way, its too crazy for normal reporting.

They don't want to appear partisan but how can you cover this mess without coming off that way?

Think they should "tell it like it is".


Thursday, February 16, 2017

Foxy America

One of the things that has impacted our country to a greater extent is the influence of partisan cable TV news.  Now I don't really watch cable news except during certain crises, but you know its there.

It sort of breaks down into CNN, the oldest and the most neutral, Fox and MSNBC.  Of course, we all know that the actual news doesn't require 24 hour a day coverage so the rest of the day is filled up with commentary.

It seems that attacking the establishment as being trying to make you conform to some hidden agenda is a successful tactic.  This is pretty much my impression of what the commentators at Fox news do.

It's got an appeal to be able to talk about how those unnamed "they" have an agenda they are imposing on everyone else and making schools stop saying the pledge of allegiance or disrespecting the police or letting minorities and immigrants ruin everything.

In fact the essential message seem to be the main part of the campaign run by Trump, a message about how we are on the wrong track and need to get back to what made us great.

Now there isn't really any empirical evidence to support the argument, some anecdotal stuff and some real problems caused by improving technology and world trade, but the message resonated with many people.

Now the point is that America is the largest economy in the world but it isn't the fairest.  Some people have a lot more than others and in most countries they would be the ones that represent the "they" everyone talks about.  However, this has been diverted here to the immigrants and refugees are hurting the working class person who lost their job in a factory and has to eke out a living.

The weakest people have caused all the problems because they are getting all that free stuff our taxes pay for (they don't) and ruining the economy.

The strategy has worked really well as we now see struggling Americans committed to providing tax breaks to the very wealthy.  They want to use hard earned tax money to pay for a wall to keep out people who are a great help to our economy by paying taxes for things they can't get. 

Facts are dismissed as fake news and fake news is widely believed.

There are people who are still convinced that Hillary was engaged in a whole lot of nefarious activities primarily because no evidence of anything exists, so it must have been covered up.  There are still people who believe our prior President was a Muslim born in Kenya.

The fact that they saw someone talking about this on Fox is enough for them, and the hen house will never be the same.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

America's Political Infrastructure is Broken

Imagine a country where a party that takes over a Government then changes the rules so that they are guaranteed to stay in control despite what appear to be "free" elections despite the fact that most residents support the opposition party?

We would probably consider it a dictatorship and certainly not consider it democratic.

Yet that is the situation here in these United States as between gerrymandering, voter suppression and our old standby, the electoral college we have created a minority controlled congress and presidency.

Of course the electoral college was always anti-democratic as the states with lower populations got the same number of senators as states with much larger populations.  The idea that California and Wyoming have the same number of Senators representing their people is absurd on the face of it.

This disproportionate importance then feeds into the electoral college and while somewhat offset by the number of congress people is simply ridiculous.

Now by both strategy, luck and a lack of common decency, the reaction to the first term of President Obama and a large infusion of special interest money left Republicans in charge of a large number of State Government right after a census led to a reapportionment, giving them the opportunity to redraw congressional districts. Redraw they did with a clear agenda, to marginalize minority votes and assure continued power for them.

Now this isn't a new thing, but with the data we now have and the total lack of fair play in these elected officials we have established a virtual lock on many institutions, which can only be undone if there is a small electoral miracle.

Of course to make it even more complete, they are doing everything they can to suppress votes from our minority communities using voter ID laws and other methods to prevent their voices from being heard.

Our Democracy has been "rigged" to assure that white Republicans maintain control.  It is not going to be easy to fix, an by fix I mean a system where every vote counts about the same and all citizens are able to vote.

It has to start at the state levels and the 2020 elections are the key to fix the gerrymandering.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

In Like Flynn

Well, he's not in anymore, he's out and the reason is lying to the administration and the public about what he did.

Of course not everyone is convinced that the administration didn't know he was discussing positions with the Russians but it does violate a law, and they certainly can't admit it.

But since lying in an alternative facts administration doesn't seem like it would get you fired, its probably true they didn't know about it.

So he probably did do it on his own, or maybe the top guy knew about it but he did the honorable thing and resigned.

I guess we can rest assured in the knowledge that his Russian handlers are still in place and our direction remains the same.

At least he knew something about the area he was put in charge of, as we test whether completely unqualified people put in charge of organizations can be effective.

We are all the guinea pigs in this experiment, so show some interest.

Monday, February 13, 2017

Orange is the new President

Well we went from our first black president to our first orange one.  What strikes me as sad is that I don't think he ever actually expected to get elected but I could be wrong about that. 

In a month when we set aside a day to celebrate our prior presidents, many of whom were in charge during turbulent periods of our history, we see a stark contrast with the current one.

Now, its not even a full month and one expects that the administration might get over a rocky start, although that is by no means certain.

I want to point out that by no means were all previous presidents great.

Its also noteworthy that over time the power of the president has tended to increase but there's a reasonably good chance that we will see a bit of a reversal there based on overall disinterest with the business of running the Government.

It is possible that something will happen that will result in this president rising to the occasion and becoming one that is looked back on with high regard.

I myself don't see that, but predicting the future is uncertain.  I do think that many of his supporters will become disenchanted with him based on the fact that he is easily capable of changing his positions since they seem to be based on very weak foundations.

Not being a politician until recently he was free to come up with positions and espouse them.  Because he was rich enough and famous enough people listened to him and a certain number probably said they agreed with him, even if they really didn't.  Now of course he is going to get data and facts.  He may try to ignore them but they will keep popping up.

You see a certain development taking place in his foreign affairs.  Its easy to think the United States should just boss the other countries around, except when you find out you can't.  He needs to realize that our diplomatic positions were based on actual reality instead of late night fantasy.

Similarly in domestic situations, you can't make everything magically delicious.  Business is going to do what is profitable and if adopting technology is profitable (and it is) they will continue to do so.  Electricity generating plants that are using abundant, cheaper natural gas aren't going to go back to coal. 

Concerning defeating ISIS which is simply a short term thing since a new organization will simply spring up, the roots of terrorism are deep.  There is no better way to get attention for a cause then to commit an act of terrorism which despite some fantasy by the administration gets a ton of coverage.  Actually, it would be a great strategy to not cover them since they serve no purpose if they don't get coverage.  Of course our media is going to follow the "if it bleeds, it leads" rule.

Its clear even after a short time that we have an administration that has a steep learning curve.  Sometime the lack of knowledge is amazing.  Concerning refugees and immigrants he throws around the term extreme vetting, but the way he has vetted his cabinet appointments shows that he has no idea what that is.  We already have the most stringent vetting process in the world. 

Campaign motto's don't translate well into policy and the final measure of how we remember this administration in future February's remains to be seen.

Unfortunately the one thing that is almost definitely going to be associated with this administration is the fake news phenomena and the term alternative facts.  Not the best start.


Sunday, February 12, 2017

Say no to Hate

One of the things that is hard to understand is how a party which essentially teaches hate and caters to the wealthiest among us has any popularity at all.

If you consider politics, people generally vote based on what issues impact them directly. 

So lost jobs and to some extent lost values impact votes.

Republicans claim they stand for American values and family values.  These are of course the family values of Mayberry RFD or maybe Father Knows Best.

Certainly not the lifestyles portrayed in media about celebrity entertainers, although that is nothing new and was scandalous during the golden days of Hollywood.

Its not much news to say that 99% of all Americans lived their normal lives today and while they had to deal with individual annoyances will do the same thing again tomorrow.

What's going on with the other 1% that makes the news and twists our perceptions.

In general most people are trying to survive and raise a family, no matter where they live, the color of their skin, their nationality, or their sexual orientation.

What we have in common is so much more than what differentiates us.  We sometime thing that the world breaks down into us and them, and the people who live near us are somehow different than everyone else.

However, the farmer who gets up before dawn to see to his livestock isn't really very different than the workers taking the train or car into work before dawn in many of our American cities. 

There are people who abuse the system but its not as prevalent as some would have you believe and no one is in favor of that.

The current message of exclusion and hate is not an American value, it is a result of fear and lies.

We need to reject it. 


Saturday, February 11, 2017

Having a Plan

In dealing with complex things, it is usually better to plan an approach rather than just see what happens and react.

Now plans need to be flexible since things might happen that have unforeseen consequences, but they are always useful to get things going.

Our new administration never disclosed in any great detail its plans and its pretty clear it didn't really have any.

Take health care.

Repeal or even repeal an replace are not plans, simply slogans.

What we hear could become part of a plan, but they are simply statements about what they like and there's no agreement on any of it.

Now there's always the chance that something good will happen, but as much of a chance, maybe more than either nothing will happen or something bad will happen.

The presidential campaigns go on for such a long time that developing some plans shouldn't be much of a problem, if you try at all.

Of course if you are convinced that you can simply make an executive decision and have it implemented, like many CEOs do, it might come as a bit of a surprise to you that the Government is different.

Now to be fair, the CEOs rely on many sources of information, but generally not fake news sites.

Consultants, internal staff and others analyze the choices and give the executives a few ways to go with the consequences and risk and they pick the one they like best.

Of course you have to have the briefers do their homework for this to work.

Government is trickier since there are actually checks and balances that can stop your actions.

The legislature has to provide funding and the judiciary has to say its constitutional.

One would have considered that if they ever passed a civics class or had a plan.

So I guess we all get to be surprised by what happens just like the president.


Friday, February 10, 2017

Get a Job

If you are sitting back complaining about how you can't get a job, it is probably your own fault.  Now I didn't say you could become the executive of a large company, you probably don't have the skills they require, but the best and surest way to get a good job is to start in any job.

Now, some jobs are distasteful and don't pay well, but that might be why you can get it.

You may have had a job, and you may be just starting out, but if you are not working you need to get out there and find a job.

Now, some may think that working isn't the best course of action because they can do just about as well with Government benefits, and if your goal is to be a leech on society and develop bad habits, I guess that is an option.

However while we all work to make money, the benefits of having a job exceeds the money you get paid.

A lot of people pay attention to credit history, but a job history is probably more important.

Of course you can have bad work histories if you keep losing jobs or getting into trouble, but if you want to be successful you need to also perform any job you get.

Leaving for a better job is certainly understandable but you also don't want to just change jobs constantly.

When you are working, you are also learning.  Even if the job is a terrible one, you will learn how to deal with it if you put the effort in.

If you talk to successful people about their first jobs, a lot of them were pretty menial.  Working at a fast food restaurant or as a store clerk is not glamorous and doesn't pay very well, but you can gain skills that will serve you well in the future.

If you aren't willing to put in the time and effort, then it really doesn't matter, you can scrape by in some fashion day to day, but when you see that 10, 20, 30 years from now you are still barely surviving while others have moved on, that will be the reason.

Opportunity is knocking a lot more than people think, they just let someone else answer the door.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Draining the Swamp

This is a term that has been around for quite a while and it is generally used to denote overcoming difficulties that prevent progress.

I think it may have originated in the general concept of eliminating the breeding ground as opposed to fighting the individual problems, say in combating malaria.

It was used in the election to refer to the Washington DC establishment and the problems they create.

Of course to drain it when the vast majority of the politician were reelected could be a problem.

It also is problematic if the swamp is not actually the cause of the problems.

If you actually create a swamp where none existed, it is even worse of course.\

Now people like to blame the Government for all sorts of things without actually knowing what they are talking about.  Of course the Government can be difficult to deal with, does impose taxes on us and tells us things we can't do, so its not going to win a lot of friends, however, it doesn't do these things to cause problems but rather to solve problems.

Take the problem of institutional racism.  Its been with us forever and it allowed non minorities to enjoy a number of privileges, that they viewed as rights.  However, it isn't acceptable and almost everybody is against it in principle.

Now, to overcome it we have added categories to certain things like employment and college entrance to try to level the playing field.  Of course those elements, such as diversity have positive attributes but clearly since in these cases we only hire so many or admit so many some don't get the job or get the admittance who would have in the past.

Is this discrimination?  No, we had discrimination and this is fairness, but we have slightly different winners and losers and the losers who used to be the winners aren't happy about it.

Take things like regulations to reduce pollution.  We had companies freely pollute the air and water that the rest of us had to use.  Regulations that stop them add some cost to their operation and are considered a problem by them.  Of course having cleaner air and water for the rest of us is a good thing, if not as immediate.  I've seen the return of bald eagles to habitats and cleaner waterways in many areas in my lifetime.

This list can go on, but the general point is that the government doesn't just do thing to annoy us or to destroy America.  They do these things because of problems that need to be solved.

One problem becomes the fact that the many who benefit hardly notice the improvement while the few who get hurt are very outspoken.

Take raising the minimum wage.  Labor cost is a certain percentage of the cost of doing business and while an increase in wages will result is some increase in prices, it has been shown in study after study to have an overall benefit to the economy as the net amount of discretionary income increases among those most likely to spend it.  However you see people post examples (false ones) of how raising the minimum wage leads to a decrease in economic activity.

The facts are clear, but we often see the "alternative facts" promoted more because the special interests are well, special.

If you are going to drain a swamp you need to be sure it actually is a swamp and not a wildlife sanctuary.  Further, creating fetid pools of privilege in its place is really not an improvement.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Statistical Nonsense

Just read an article where the point being made was that 17% of Americans don't favor mandatory vaccinations.  Now that's not a particularly high number and a lot of them apparently are basing this on an article that was discredited linking vaccinations to autism, but it is a sad use of statistics.

First, if you don't have a child in the age group involved your opinion is likely to be about random.  Second, the word mandatory is always going to create some resistance, people don't like it.

So the article pointed out some of the prominent people, including our current President and Ben Carson (a doctor) who have expressed concerns.  However bottom line I read a story that really told me next to nothing.  Did they object to vaccinations or to the Government forcing people to do it? 

Now statistical studies are one way to make sense out of the world, but some things are statistically irrelevant, or maybe not.

Take for instance the increased use of opioids and the election of our current President. The one became an epidemic in parts of this country that swung to him in the election.  A part of me thinks it might be connected but two events happening at the same time do not mean one causes or is even related to the other.

During a period when actual unemployment decreased tremendously, large parts of the country feel it is still a major problem.  One possible reason for this is that the new jobs are not as good as the old jobs were.  So taking a low paying job at a retail establishment may leave the ex-factory worker feeling like he is really still unemployed.

Take resistance to things like Obamacare.  Without arguing the merits of the plan, the articles talk about increasing premiums and deductibles.  The increase in premiums and increased deductibles are not proven to be caused by the law, we see a similar trend in employee provided healthcare, it is more likely related to the aging of America and the increased cost of care.  However, take two facts that seem to have something in common (i.e. medicine) and treat them as causative. 

Terrorism is another example of people misusing statistics.  The level of fear related to terrorism is way our of proportion to the actual risk, especially in this country.  Also banning groups of people to prevent it has no statistical validity that I can find. 

Where the scientific community has provided valid statistical studies and evidence say Climate Change, we see many people refusing to accept it.  It is pretty much irrefutable but we are willing to believe that a 5 year old refugee is a threat but the millions of tons of carbon being released by a factory isn't.

Just nonsense.

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

How bad is the Terrorism?

There is a bit of an ongoing argument that terrorism is at incredibly high levels and the media and the public is not aware of how bad it is.

Now clearly terrorism is a dangerous thing, people kill themselves and others in a sign of protest, and it occasionally rises to truly deadly levels, such as 9/11.  However, the odds of dying from a terrorist attack are pretty low, way below many other activities that we do routinely, such as driving.

So is the current emphasis or attempts to limit immigration so vital to our safety?

It certainly doesn't seem like it considering that the people allowed into this country have almost no history of committing acts of terror here.

Of course there are some exceptions, but most terror here is home grown.

That is radicalized people either born here or raised here who for whatever reason decide that we are not a just society.

It isn't even necessarily politically motivated.

To jump to the conclusion that terrorism is primarily a problem with certain Muslims is not supported by the facts.

Most mass violence here is done by non-Muslims.  Now of course I am including any act of public violence in my definition of terrorism while excluding individual homicides. 

Ignoring some of the terrorism, which might simply be the result of a deranged mind or teenage angst is to ignore much of the danger.

Sort of like saying dark skinned drunk drivers are a danger while ignoring all other drunk drivers.

If we want to prevent terrorism we probably need to reduce the easy path, i.e. guns, but that is not "politically correct" in this administration.

Still the number of people who are killed or injured by terrorism in this country is hardly a significant statistic, although even one is too many.  Of course that is true for all human life that is lost.

Monday, February 6, 2017

Super Bowl

Congrats to the Patriots, they didn't give up hope and eventually prevailed.  I guess Atlanta has to deal with the fact that they set records for blowing such a big lead but they got the big lead in the first place and they just had their defense on the field way too long.

Great half time show from Lady Gaga also although the commercials didn't thrill me.  Maybe the expectations for them is too high.

So many Americans watch the super bowl that it is a cultural event now.

The game seemed to be over and then it wasn't, which is a reminder that Football scores are a bit deceptive since you can get eight at a time.

I can remember games I played (of course on a much lower level) where we lost momentum.  Its an odd thing that you feel like you can't be beat and do well, then something happens and you start to think you might blow it.  It can be self fulfilling and you go from being loose to being tight.

Of course the players on New England had the opposite emotion, feeling in the fourth quarter they could do not wrong.

You can point to a couple of plays that allowed the comeback to happen but it started to seem inevitable and when the Patriots won the overtime coin toss, I think everybody knew it was over.

Congrats again to the Patriots!

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Disregard for the Truth

Sometimes politicians are accused of being too cautious, careful about what they say and often not getting to the point.

They do this because what they said had consequences and could be used against them.

They also realized that they had some responsibility to not mislead people and get them to act based on incorrect information.

Of course that was the old way of doing things.

Now we have entered the age of the alternate facts, better know as lies.

This isn't the first time, the NAZIs and Communists engaged in Propaganda (also know as alternate facts and lies) to sway public opinion.  It actually goes further back than that, but that was sort of the golden age of the practice from my point of view.

After the war we seemed to become a bit more restrained and the fact that we had an independent press in most countries that hesitated to print blatant falsehoods (with some exceptions) kept politicians fairly honest.

Oh we accused them of lying, but the lies were at least circumspect.

Some places like North Korea and other dictatorships maintained the old lying culture but we, despite certain conspiracy theorists, were a little more truthful.

Of course we now have a donnybrook of lies since the advent of social media, the proliferation of alternate fact (news) sites and outside intervention.

The lying has gotten so prevalent the truth seems like just another lie.

Now people who accept anything they read or see on the Internet need to take some responsibility for being deceived, but we also see a president who lies consistently about almost everything.

Of course its not him, its everyone else who is lying.  His administration isn't any better and the taint of what they are doing isn't going away anytime soon.

See, the truth will eventually prevail.  Lies have a problem in that the real world contradicts them.

Its just a matter of time.



Saturday, February 4, 2017

Another Saturday

Well its the beginning of February and a couple of weeks into the new administration. Normally the period called the honeymoon period although in this one, the married couple are not so fond of each other.

For someone so fond of ratings, the low approval ratings should really be an issue, he might be doing even worse than Arnold, although a different scale.

The problem is sort of like the dog that caught the car, what now?

Ignoring for now the way our system has been perverted to create a Republican government, they are mostly used to complaining about, well pretty much everything.

Its easy to complain, but not so easy to actually do something.

It also seems that the only two people who believed Trump meant the things he was saying was Trump and Bannon.

Most of us have a bit of a rebellious streak and when you don't get everything you want, or feel in a certain mood, you express your rebellion.  I think we saw a lot of votes cast for the winning candidate as a symbol of rebellion by people who didn't think it would matter.  Well, surprise, it did.

There is  a lot of cynicism out there, it seems like a lot more than it use to be, because every wacko can state an opinion, including me.

So since it is easiest to tear people down, that's what happens the most, so no one is worthy, no system is honest, no one can be trusted.

Also, the news reports the bad things that happen to the point where it seems like nothing bu bad things are happening, when generally for most people life goes on pretty routinely.

Terrorism is much less of a danger than driving your car, yet we are terrified of it and not afraid of out cars.

There are many more drunk drivers out there than terrorists.  I'm not seeing any executive orders about that.

You are also more likely to be a victim of a mass shooting by a crazy person than the victim of a terrorist, but we want to make sure the crazies can own guns.

People say to support the new president, but he needs to do something that is supportable.  Handcuffing 5 year olds isn't it.

Think the new show needs to make some changes if it wants ratings to improve, maybe add a few likeable supporting Latinos.  Include a few women in group pictures too, I would support that.

What does it mean that a women should dress like a women anyways?  Think that dress code could be improved.


Friday, February 3, 2017

Religious Discrimination

For much of history and continuing today the state and Church have been closely connected. 

Most ancient kingdoms and empires treated their ruler as a God or high priest who supported and received support from the religion of the state.

It was rarer for the two to be separated as they are in this country, although even here there were abundant references to God in our founding documents.

As a country that was formed out of colonies, some of which were the homes of religious dissidents, it was agreed that there would be no establishment of a State religion or prohibitions on religion.

Of course the founders were predominantly Christians but they did prescribe Christianity any special place.

There are many people in this country who want to ignore that and restore our Christian values, if in fact they are gone.

The problem with that, besides insisting everyone follow Christian values, is that there isn't agreement on what they are.

Some things considered sinful by one sect is considered fine by another. 

Of course when you consider other religions the whole thing really falls apart.

Now to allow a person dealing with the public to discriminate because a patron doesn't share their sense of morality is a slippery slope indeed.

First what business is that of theirs?

The idea that one person finds another person's legal actions so distasteful that they won't sell to them or provide a commercial service to them is actually not very Christian at all.

I think that if the Government allows such behavior, real Christians and everyone else should stop patronizing such a hateful place.

Love thy neighbor is a very Christian value.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Solving Problems

In order to solve a problem you first have to have a problem.

This may seem pretty obvious, but there is a lot of time wasted trying to solve things which aren't actually problems.

Take voter fraud.

There is no real evidence that it is a problem.

In fact the studies all show pretty conclusively that it isn't.  There is evidence that some registrations are incorrect which are easily explained by three things, people die, they move and ID theft.

However dead people, people registered in multiple states and people who are stealing identities are not voting.  It is simply the fact that this is done by states and we don't have a simple way to update deaths and people moving.

Its popular because it allows certain laws that suppress certain legal voters.

Another non-problem is the erosion of white privilege.  First, there is no actual right to white privilege and second its not being eroded because other people are gaining rights.

You see people using other phony issue, such as having to select English as your language when you call a help center.  How is that a problem?  It helps some people get help.

Other phony problems include thing like disrespect o the flag or not saying the pledge of allegiance in schools or even the fact that the newest generation is not doing what they should (a very ancient complaint (btw).  These are not real problems.

Real problems do exist but they can't be solved if not understood.

Poverty in the world is a problem.  Violence in the streets is a problem.  Failure to provide our citizens good health care or education is a problem.  The number of people we incarcerate is a problem.

There are of course more problems that need to understood and solved.  Time spent chasing illusionary ones helps no one.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

A More Dangerous World

In all honesty the possibility that the United States and Russia would square off in a war is fairly remote.  I think enough people on both sides realize who destructive such a war would be likely ending in nuclear disaster.

What we saw in the Bush years, aggressive misguided notions of what we can get other people to do leading to deadly regional conflicts that get Americans killed, encourage terrorism, and make the world a more dangerous place.

It seems like the middle east is still the most dangerous area as a naive belief that Jihadists can be defeated by strong arm tactics seems prevalent at the White House again.

This was the mistake that the Bush administration made when it believed that we could impose Western thoughts on Muslim Countries.

It led to bloody wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and recruited thousands of recruits to terrorists organizations.

Now this wasn't solved under the Obama administration, but it didn't get worse.  We saw dictatorships fall in many countries and while ISIS was able to surge it is now being defeated on the ground by Arab troops, not Americans.

We do provide support, mostly air attacks and some on the ground support, but the "skin" in the game is a lot less.

Now, the idea that sending in American troops to quickly put an end to ISIS is misguided since the root issues will still exist and an American presence will surely spur resentment anger and recruitment for terrorists organizations.

The idea that we can effectively colonize a country and take their oil, while militarily possible would lead to nothing but greater danger here as anger would boil over.

The more we provide the terrorists with recruitment materials the more dangerous the world becomes. 

It is also important to note that Americans have no special rights when it comes to being a citizen of the world.  We also face the danger of being arrogant and stupid in a world where every person is equal.

There is a long history of colonial powers trying to dominate the world, it ultimately fails on every level. 

Lets not repeat it.