Press Led Putin On

 You can tell that Putin is getting a bit desperate when he rattles the nuclear threat.  While he ordered in public his military to put his nukes in ready status, whatever that actually means (aren't they more or less ready all the time?) he is trying to intimidate the West.

With his puppet out of the White House, he might be led on by the somewhat traitorous depiction of how weak Biden is on radical right-wing media.  First, he is clearly not as depicted and while no one is hoping for a nuclear exchange, he and everyone of his generation learned the lesson of appeasement.

We are not sending in troops but we have imposed sanctions that are clearly hurting.  Maybe he was fooled by all the coverage of how Americans are incensed by the inflation and increase in gas prices.  I would prefer that gas be cheaper but not a repeat of the economic slowdown we had because of the pandemic.

Putin lives in a country without a free press, and he probably doesn't understand one when he sees it.  The negative reporting is what we do.

It doesn't impact our resolve.

Victory?

 While the invasion of the Ukraine is still in its early stages, I think Putin was hoping for a quick collapse either because he delusionally thought the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians or the wouldn't put up much of a fight.

He appears to have miscalculated.  He probably also thought the west would talk but not act.  Instead, they are imposing tough sanctions and lending support.  

One of the possible outcomes is regime change, which Putin wanted, but not for Russia.  Will it get that far?  This was the equivalent of gong all in on a poker hand and either you win or you lose big.

While technically he can still "win" it seems like at best it will be a pyrrhic victory where the cost outweighs the gains.

Democracy Is Hard

 In all honesty, much of what you see presented in the media is not objective.  Currently we seem to be on a media train where bashing Biden for (fill in the blank) is popular.  I saw a preview for a local channel where a show representing some black views was previewed and the panel was asked if Biden had failed to keep his promises?  

The problem with that question is that it pretends he can do more than try to deliver on his promises.  Politicians do overpromise when they run for office generally.  Most of the time they should add an "I'll try to " to each promise.  Since legislation in this country requires legislation which is not solely under a single person's control the most you can hope for is attempts.

Take voting rights.  There is no question that Biden and his fellow Democrats have tried to pass voting rights legislation.  Partly because of Senate rules they have failed, at least so far.  In fact, clearly voting rights is under attack in much of the country.  The question you have to ask yourself is do you think the other party is better?

Right now, the odds are that the Democrats will take some hits in the mid-terms.  It might change but if the polls are close to accurate and if historical trends hold it could be bad.  

It won't be good for the progressive agenda if it happens.

It's been a winning strategy, getting people to stay home because of unkept promises.  

Patriotism?

 If you understand how dangerous a war in the Ukraine is and the risk of further Russian aggression if this one is not stopped or at least punished, you shouldn't encourage dictators to continue by expressing what are best characterized as providing aid and support to the aggressor.

We have not declared war and hopefully won't have to, but his aggression has ominous possibilities.

We saw the aggressive Putin warn about historic consequences if any Western country helped Ukraine.

Nobody wants to go to war but that attitude is dangerous and looking at 1939 and another aggressive dictator should give us pause.

We have free speech, but the voters need to note who stands for Democracy and international law and who supports aggressive dictators.

Invasion

 We now know that Biden was right, and Putin had made up his mind to invade.  He clearly would like a quick victory after which he can try to do damage control and try to consolidate whatever gains he can secure.  If it stalls or drags on, it will be a serious hit to his economy.

It has certain repercussions to the rest of the world, mainly in regard to energy.  The sanctions being imposed will also have some impact to others as certain trade will be interrupted leading to some price increases.  General uncertainty will also impact stock prices for a bit.

Whatever the outcome the real danger is whether we are looking at an expansionist dictator in charge of one of a large European power.  Russia is no longer what it was as the USSR and Putin may be trying to recreate that.  He probably can't but that doesn't mean he can't try.

The best outcome would be the one that minimizes human suffering.   

Priorities

 There was a question raised at the daily press briefings about whether the issues in Ukraine replaced Climate Change as the greatest issue facing us.  The response was it didn't and that is the right answer.

It's still unclear as to what is going to happen in the Ukraine, it is possible that the Russians will decide to take over and engage in terrible brutality. That would be a horrible thing, but we have seen that before in other parts of the world.  What we have never seen is the type of worldwide disasters that climate change will unleash.

Hopefully, the sanctions and worldwide condemnation will result in a solution that everyone can live with.  It won't be a perfect one, it never is.  People have already been displaced or killed over the issue.  Still, it is not too late for a negotiated settlement of some sort.  

No one wants to see a world war break out over the Ukraine and it isn't likely.  To some Americans, gas prices going up is almost as bad.

It isn't.

Cultural Appropration?

 I was watching an interview with the new Maria of West Side Story a very talented young lady who got her big break.  From what I could tell she shuld be a success and the remake should do well.  It might not and if not, her future could be uncertain.

During the interview her background was brought up and compared to the unenlightened first movie where Maria was played by a non-Latina.  Natalie Wood played the part well and when she got the part cultural appropriation was not a thing.

Now there are two potential approaches to things.  The first one says to hire the best person without regard to nationality, sex, race or anything except talent.  As good as that sounds, you have to realize that many of these decisions are too close to call.  Take the current Supreme Court opening.  Who is the best candidate in the United States?  No one can identify someone who fits that bill.  Ignoring the politics for a bit, Our top candidates are all very close in experience, education and ability.  So, in that case, other factors will dominate.  Certainly, known legal positions are important to add a liberal to the court.  The President has committed to picking a Black Women and some argue that is restrictive.  It really isn't.  Qualified candidates are available in all variations and a Black Women is certainly due a chance.

Acting is different and while auditions can be helpful is discriminating the best candidates, if we restrict the selections to only the right criteria aren't we ignoring merit?  I see historical dramas where minorities play important parts when they wouldn't have if we stuck with the culturally appropriate actor.

I'd rather see them use their skills.

Media Shock

 A free press is a wonderful thing most of the time.  There are times when it stops negotiations by finding and releasing too much detail about the positions but then again, some use it to negotiate.  Realistically in this country and maybe the world, shock sells.

The worse things are the better the ratings.  We saw it in radio and in podcasts where being edgy and worse got good ratings.  As cable TV expanded it went from a medium with lots of boring stations to a medium with those but also stations that used an old model of attractive women telling us shocking things about, well everything.  

Much of this can be attributed to our Australian imports who learned their trade in Australia and then in Britain before importing it here.  I'm not aware if they have expanded into foreign non-English markets, I imagine they have, but the strategy made them exceedingly rich.

It's not dissimilar to the yellow journalism of the 19th century which led to what now seem like more restrained times.  The Spanish American war might have been one outcome of their methods.

The public has to be able to discern the truth and unfortunately our public seems a bit underprepared. 

Still, truth exists, and someone should figure it out.

Lies

 Based on the reports it looks like Russia is going to invade the Ukraine any time now.  They are apparently creating false events to convince their own people that the invasion was justified, similar to what the Nazis did before invading Poland.  It didn't convince anyone except Nazi followers in Germany.

Still, what we do know is that repeating a lie often enough works.  Despite all the evidence we see people will just believe a lie repeated often enough.  People who seem to be intelligent fall for that tactic.

Shows how little we still understand about the human psyche.  

So we will watch the invasion and know that Putin is lying about the reasons it started.  We should apply that lesson in this country.

Party Image

 If you consider the overall state of the nation, it is pretty good.  Wages are up, employment is high, spending is up.  We are not out of the 20 year long war in Afghanistan.  There are some areas of concern.  Inflation is high and as the world economy has picked up we see supply chain issue.  Similarly, the oil companies have been reluctant to reopen marginal wells leading to a spike is oil prices.

What is somewhat different is that we still have the last President making absurd accusations and much of the Republican party has fallen in line.  They seem to have a better coordinated game plan originally orchestrated by the Koch brothers which was to take over from the bottom up.  They have focused on winning state legislatures which enable them to control the congressional redistricting.

This has led to a situation where they are almost guaranteed control of quite a few states.  The Democrats tended to work top down which is higher visibility but not as effective.  

It is time to consider winning back some state legislatures if we want to fix redistricting and other issues at that level. 

Democrats have allowed Republicans to define many of the issues.  If you are branded as the party trying to defund the police, you are in trouble.

Acting or Stupid?

 I find it hard to believe that anyone takes anything Donald Trump says seriously.  Outside of being an egomaniac, I never considered him stupid or crazy so when he takes on that persona, like he has, I think he must be playing a role.  

He has found rabid supporters who take him seriously.  He found them when he joined the birther movement which I'm sure he knew was ridiculous, but he found a large group of people who actually believed it.  That was enough to dominate the primaries, which really isn't that hard, and he simply appealed to outliers willing to support him for a mention.

He now seems so far down the rabbit hole that he might actually believe he has enough suport to win.

Of course, he seems to know that he can't win without electoral shenanigans, so they are trying to manipulate the elections in certain states.

Will Americans fall for this?  I don't think so but famously they tend to surprise me with poor choices so maybe.  

We would have no one to blame but ourselves if we let him fool us again.

No News Here!

My first encounter with a "rabid" Fox news listener happened years ago when we had house guests who we had known a long time.  After dinner he got a big smile on his face and said let's see what Fox is up to now.  I never watched the cable news channel, so I put on the local news on the Fox channel.  This wasn't what he wanted, he wanted to see them spin lies about the shenanigans they said were going on.  I didn't know what channel they were on and he decided to give up his nightly viewing.

What was odd to me was he had the same sort of fervor as someone asking to see sporting events or a real popular TV show, not a news channel.  Over the years I realized Fox news had little to do with real news.  I would sometimes see them on the airport monitors and sometimes during breakfast at a hotel.

It turns out that the real feeding frenzy mostly takes place at night.  It also seems like they have strayed further and further afoot.  

It's worked for them as they did draw an audience.  An audience gets you sponsors, and sponsors pay the bills no integrity required.  I still don't watch the channel but over the years the one incident that seemed like they stood for integrity was when they were the first to call Arizona for Biden.  I doubt they will make a mistake like that again.

Their recipe is pretty simple.  Finc some raw meat, throw it to the audience with a backstory made up out of whole cloth and fabricate a bunch of lies om support of radical right-wing propaganda.

It works for them but I do think that Americans will realize how wrong they usually are.  

Slow Moving Disaster

 It is probably too late to avoid major impacts of climate change. It is getting less likely all the time since no one is taking the type of dramatic action that would be necessary.

In the scheme of things from a planetary point of view, this is a minor event.  From a human point of view, it's pretty major.  

While those living on islands or near the coast may be the most impacted in the short term, we are all seeing the intensity of storms increasing.  More carbon dioxide is good for plants and they like the warmer temperatures also so if water becomes available we may see deserts bloom.

Maybe not.

While the impacts of climate change qualify as a disaster for many, except for the storm victims it is a slow moving one.  Rising water will make certain areas uninhabitable and billions or even trillions of dollars of property will be destroyed.

Just taking awhile.

Cuba and Ukraine, Similar?

 Is Russia going to invade the Ukraine?  That's uncertain but this has some comparisons to how we objected to the Russian presence in Cuba in the 60s.

I don't think most Americans are even that aware of the issue inciting these events.  Ukraine wants to join NATO and NATO is considering it.  Russia views NATO 9with some justification) as an anti-Russian alliance.  This amounts to having a semi-hostile alliance on its southern border.

NATO has been growing since the end of the USSR and the fall of the Eastern Bloc.  In many ways it shouldn't matter since it is supposedly a defensive alliance.  However NATO has evolved and while to us it seems defensive, would we feel the same way if a powerful anti-American Alliance took hold in say Mexico?

We saw our reaction to defensive missiles in CUBA which almost led t war.

Hopefully this can be resolved diplomatically, but Ukraine joining NATO is probably a bad idea.  

Superbowl Thoughts

 Refs being people will make mistakes.  The worst mistake in the Super Bowl was the missed offensive pass interference call which allowed a touchdown.  Some might disagree about the calls near the end of the game, but I think they all were justified.  If your argument is that they weren't calling those penalties earlier in the game, so what?  If they see it, they have to call it.

Congrats to the L.A. Rams for a gritty drive at the end and a defensive stand to wrap it up.

Need to remember that as much as a public spectacle the game has become it is after all still a game played by humans and crap happens.

It is probably just me but I was totally unimpressed by the halftime show.  Was there a theme to it and why was there a platform resembling a city street sort of?

I actually like all the performers who performed at least somewhat but it seemed pretty haphazard.

Guess I'm just old.

Commercials were OK.  It's hard to win the gold every year.

Privacy?

 I don't remember who said it but there is a quote about American consumers that comes to mind about how no one ever went broke underestimating the public.

The scams aren't restricted to things like 3 card monte or the shell game, they permeate society and I think they always did.  Of course, in this age they pop up as you do things on-line and it's almost like they have been listening in on your conversations.  They would if they could and maybe those devices on your phone or in your house are listening, they respond if you say their name so at least somewhat, 

You are being data mined all the time and it's hard to avoid.  It's not new, just more and more pervsive.

Before the internet it was a bit harder, like how pickpockets liked to watch people as they passed signs warning them to safeguard their valuables.  A normal reaction might disclose where those valuables were.

Now of course they know what we do, what we like and what we suffer from.

Some consider this an invasion of privacy, and it very well might be.  

However targeted marketing is not new, just a little more personal.

Sports

 Over the years we have turned Super Bowl Sunday into a sort of holiday with the build-up.  It's not a real holiday but that might just be because it falls on a Sunday.

At some point in our history and that of Western Europe we found time for recreation and sports.  It's not like humans haven't celebrated certain events but if you consider the world of the 18th or 19th century, survival was paramount.  The industrial revolution changed the way we lived and allowed people who had previously been peasants the opportunity to make money of their own.

The early days were still, by our standards, rough with everyone having to pitch in and help the family.  Child labor was normal on farms and continued until someone decided that it was unacceptable.  The fight for working mens rights was long and hard and progressed via unions and socialites who were trying to save them.

It is almost true every year, but the average person lives longer and better than the past.  They may feel things used to be better but if you measure it they are on average wrong.  The good old days were just not as good as we imagine, even if you were in the Gilded Class.  

I realize we have a holiday to celebrate the things we should give Thanks for but maybe the Superbowl is another opportunity to reflect how we have the freedom to watch with most of the country, grown men engaged in a game that is only important because we let it be.

Official Records?

 It's interesting to see all of those outraged that Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, maintained a personnel e-mail server.  It might have cost her the election which led to us having a President who felt he could get away with anything and actually tried.

Keeping official records is clearly important but we have expanded that to include all documents.  Trump clearly has never cared about the rules of Government and tried to incite an insurrection to stay in office.  He got an insurrection, but it didn't lead the nation to demand he stay.

Throughout History certain people have beleived they only needed to inspire the people and they would rise up.  John Brown believed he would incite a slave uprising when he seized Harper' Ferry.  It didn't happen, 

Sometimes it does but you need a charismatic leader truly beloved by at least some of the people Trump isn't really a leader, much more of a follower who used Twitter to gather a following.He was a multiple failure as a businessman who picked up on some conspiracy theories on late night internet and lent some fame to things like the birther movement.

He is comfortable telling his rallies what they want to hear while in reality he has contempt for them

Just a lucky opportunist.

Inflation Thoughts

 How bad is inflation.  Well, it clearly depends.  If you are not moving or buying a car it is probably not that bad.  Energy costs are up and there is a built-in amount that we will have to live with from our economic boon but even in the worst categories like meat it depends a lot on how you spend your money.

Clearly it hurts certain people much more than others.  Fixed income people without COLAs feel the worst pinch. from higher prices but unless they plan to move its not terrible.  

In fact, homeowners have been significant beneficiaries of the increase in housing prices, building equity or profit.  

I'm not saying that paying more for a pound of hamburger isn't annoying, but it's not normally catastrophic.  When it is the problem is bigger than inflation.

Prices are not likely to come down, but these inflation numbers are measured year over year, so inflation started increasing about a year ago.  If last year's price increases exceed this year's, the rate of increase will look better.  It won't mean you are paying less.

In some ways more expensive energy and red meat could be a good thing for saving the planet and our health.  We seem to need some incentives.

Representing People, not Land

 We're probably not going to fix it anytime soon, but a lot of our senator represent land and not people.

The idea that the low population but generally big area states get the same number of senators as high population states is just an inequity that leads to a generally skewed Senate.  

There are a lot of fairly easy corrections but the best one would address the issue of State sovereignty.  

The colonies had varied origin stories and after the Constitution not so much.  The Midwest and west were settled as part of the Westwood migration or the gold and silver rushes.  Expansion was popular and once a territory got the necessary paperwork for a petition to congress statehood was usually granted.  

Before the Civil War there was an attempt to keep the number of slave and free states equal in number but aft not an issue.

Democracies are supposed to represent the people more or less equally but if you live in Vermont or Wyoming, you are represented in the Senate and the electoral college much better than someone in California or Texas.

Racism On the Supreme Court

 So, Alabama can draw districts that reduce the impact of Black voters, and the Supreme Court lets it stand because they don't want to disrupt the mid-terms?  These districts have never been used in an election and you might wonder why throwing them out would be disruptive?  Alabama seems fine with confusing its Black voters if it keeps them from voting.

The racism is starting to show on the Supreme Court.  It has been racist for much of its history but many people including myself thought those days were behind us.  Apparently not.  The idea that they will hear this case on its merits so they don't need to protect Black voters this time is as logical as saying a few hangings will be found to be illegal eventually.

In the world there are two types of decisions.  The best are ones that are actually based on facts and evidence where the conclusion is the logical end result.  The second type is where the outcome is determined and then you look for ways to support it.  In our adversary system the two parties use the second method since they are representing parties.  

The Court here accepted Alabama's arguments even if they were specious because it was what they wanted the outcome to be.

How do you fix racism on the Court?  It will take time but first don't elect racists to Government.  Unfortunately, this racist decision and the ones that will follow will allow racists to get elected.  

It is self-perpetuating.

Politics or Anarchy?

 So if the January 6th insurrection was normal political discourse, we must be living in a Lewis Carroll world after all.  We all saw the events on TV either live or on the news and while I agree that what we saw wasn't everything, it was enough to show the contempt these people had for our Constitution and political system.

Maybe what is sadder is that so many Americans will simply support these anarchists with their votes because they have taken control of their party.  Because of our primary system the parties have both fallen victim to angry activists as opposed to the moderate majority.

Political parties need to fix the system that allows for activists to takeover using the primary system.  It really is too easy now and it leads to non-representational Government.

Agendas?

 We like to talk about agendas in this country.  Biden's Agenda, Democratic Agena, Republican Agenda, Feminist Agenda, etc, etc.

We also like to act like they are an all or nothing situation.  In the last few months, I have read how Biden's Agenda is in trouble, dead, revised, dead again, revised again, etc etc.

It is also unclear to the media if the agenda is a radical leftist one or the moderate one, he seemed t run on.

Meanwhile the only Republican agenda seems to be to continue to pretend the last election isn't over.

It is.

I suppose they are also attempting to keep this country a white racist one with evangelical values and a prohibition on abortion.

They don't publicize it quite like that but it's not hard to figure out.

Economic News

 Based on reports the economy grew at the fastest rate in about 40 years similar in fact to inflation.  Inflation gets most of the headlines because negative press sells better.

Maybe it's just me but where there is good news on the economy the story always has a "but". For example, gas prices decline BUT are expected to rise again.  Undoubtedly true but they are also expected to decline again at some point.

When I shop I don't realy notice that prices are significantly higher than what I remember.  Ground beef, something I but a lot does vary in price but not by so much as to be catastrophic.  It is now listed in many varieties by fat content, grass fed or not, angus or not and of course now the meatless variety.  I generally got it in family size packages for between $4 and 5$ a pound, and it still seems to be in that range if on the high end.  

Some things are also a lot cheaper, but my point isn't that inflation doesn't exist, just that it is easily managed.  Items like new cars or houses is a whole different category if you ask me.

Meanwhile average household income has increased significantly.  In fac these are the economic headlines on CNBC today.

    Long Term Unemployment tumbles in January

    How the Biden Administration misread the inflation threat

    Black Unemployment rate drops workforce participation rises in January

   Weekly jobless claims total 238,000, fewer than expected

Those are the current headlines, right below them were the ones from Wednesday and included.

    All signs are pointing to a rough January jobs report on Friday.

Signs were wrong!

 

Elections?

 There is no particular reason we only have two parties in this country except for the collusion by the two of them to assure it.  In pretty much every state, you see policies and practices that support a two-party system and make it hard fora third party to have any real influence.

Realistically we could have a Progressive Party, a Liberal Party, a Conservative Party, an Evangelical Party and probably a few others.  Would that be better?  Depends.  

In countries with parliamentary systems, you have alliances between parties. Generally, one party wins a plurality and makes deals to create a government.  So if you only issue is abortion restrictions, you negotiate tradeoffs with the parties that will support your issue.  In return you support the main agenda.

Currently we see similar maneuvers in our two parties but it extends down to the primary level where most voters are faced with less choice.  In fact the big issue in today's politics is often the primary since so many districts are engineered to assure one of the parties will win it. After taht the actual election is not in doubt frequently..     

Saving the Planet

 Last year we did not reach our carbon emissions reduction goal.  Instead, we saw emissions imcrease by about 7%.  It should be noted that the 7% increase is after the significant reductions related to the pandemic in 2020 so we are still down about 4% from 2019.

While we made commitments at Glasgow, our odds of meeting them grow dimmer as we increase our emissions.  In addition, significant climate emissions were built into the Build Back Better initiative which is stalled.  Without incentives and tax breaks our odds of making progress diminish.

Failure to make progress is not a victory for anybody.  In addition to sea level rise, the planet will react with more and more violent storms.  

Losing the climate battle will be devastating for the world and us.  Will we adjust?  I imagine so, but similar to many things the pain increases the longer we delay.

Saving the Planet should be our number one priority.

Tax Time

 Its February so I downloaded my tax software last night.  I don't have to download it but I still don't feel that having all my data on the cloud is safe.  I'll probably start them this week although I did transfer last year's info into the new year, so I guess that a start.

I keep pretty good records but my info is not well organized, so a lot of time is spent looking for documents I know I have in the big file cabinet next to my desk.  I could file things better but I would have to deal with the stuff I already didn't file so it is hardly worth it.

I could have someone do my taxes, but I've been doing them so long it would seem like giving up.  Plus, in some areas the actual truth is unknowable, like the value of the weekly donations my wife makes to goodwill.  She simply uses the drop off boxes so not receipt and no real record of what it was.  Just clothes and stuff bought some time ago that she now considers unwanted.  My valuation method is a secret.

The biggest change in recent years was the loss of the SALT deductions I used to get.  It turned me from someone getting a refund to someone paying.  I still get to pay the state and local taxes as well.

With taxes it's better to pay than to receive at the end, you had the use of the money, but getting is just more pleasant.

Is This The Future Yet?

 Growing up and reading science fiction, I had high hopes for the future, thinking that humanity would be reaching the stars and setting up colonies.  Well, we have some amazing technological advances (mastered that Dick Tracy watch) but not much progress on the Flash Gordon side.

The reality of science is not able to keep up with the imaginations of men.  I wonder if I was transported from the 50s to today if I would have trouble adjusting?  I guess the portable computers we carry around and as I said the handheld communication devices (same thing) would be different bu not shocking.

We still drive cars and I while some are electric or self-driving, I think I would be able to mansge, although self-service would be new.  I guess a self-driving car could get gas without much human intervention.

When I started working, we had typewriters and people paid to use them.  Now we have less workers and smart computers pointing out errors.

What is definitely different is our politicians.  Even considering tricky Dick Nixon, we never expected them to be this oblivious to public opinion.  We also never expected public opinion to be so odd.

Unfortunately, the racism is still around if not as blatant.  It seems our belief the racists were changing was simply the fact that they went underground and developed new tactics.  

Russia is still dangerous as is China.  

Maybe I'm missing some wonderful things, we have a lot of Apps we didn't have or need back then.

We somehow managed to get dates, rent apartments, get delivery and taxis without them.

Imagine that.