While the invasion of the Ukraine is still in its early stages, I think Putin was hoping for a quick collapse either because he delusionally thought the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians or the wouldn't put up much of a fight.
He appears to have miscalculated. He probably also thought the west would talk but not act. Instead, they are imposing tough sanctions and lending support.
One of the possible outcomes is regime change, which Putin wanted, but not for Russia. Will it get that far? This was the equivalent of gong all in on a poker hand and either you win or you lose big.
While technically he can still "win" it seems like at best it will be a pyrrhic victory where the cost outweighs the gains.
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