Looking forward we can expect our inflation number to stay about the same if current prices also stay the same. This is the year over year number we are so fond of and because it measures changes from 12 months ago, we already know last years input. Since there was no significant increase last November, the year over year number will stay abut the same unless there is a significant change in current prices. The base numbers started to increase earlier this year so figure 4 to 5 more months of inflation headlines.
If you want to know what is gong on now you really need to look at the monthly number measured against last month which was much lower than the year over year number.
There is certainly inflation, there almost always is, and its higher than recent years but the surge in demand is unlikely to last past the holidays, although it might.
Our supply chain problems plus economic recovery or maybe just growth create upward price pressure. How long will it take to resolve supply chain issues is dependent on having enough workers.
We may be seeing a demographic impact as the population ages and the workforce shrinks. Working age population has been flat over the last few years while we see increases in elderly people, although we may need to redefine that.
The only age demographic with significant growth ia elderly people.
People live longer and become net drains on the economy instead of contributors.
We are seeing some decrease in savings but the cause for this is a bit uncertain until more data is available.
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