Midterms

 There is a year to go before the midterms but we knew the results right after the Presidential Election.  Of course this was based on prior performance which as every prospectus ever warns is not a guarantee of future performance.

Now we know that the off year elections didn't go that's mainly based on Virginia and New Jersey as far as I can tell.  The fact that the candidate in Virginia for the Democrats was a prior Governor but I think that's almost always a mistake.   You can't serve as Governor without making enemies (and friends) but the enemies are more motivated.  

Now thanks to a few situations like the supply chain backup and the gas prices we see low approval numbers for Biden.  So the election results predicted after the last election for the mid-terms are almost a certainty now.

They may turn out to be right but they may  go the other way.  There are some causes that might inspire more participation, which is generally bad for the Republicans.  Gas prices already started to come down and the comparison point with last year will soon reflect the initial price increases as covid decreased.

Covid is certainly alleviating but we need to push vaccination which will help a lot.

Supply chain is starting to catch up and in a few months won't be much of a story.  

The infrastructure plan is going to create jobs (and traffic jams) all over the country.

Assuming the build back better passes there will be some immediate relief to many Americans.

One might expect Biden's numbers to increase but we will see.

Remember the prediction was based on a solid sample.

Even though it didn't always hold up.