Countdown to ????

We are less than two weeks away from a new administration that despite receiving less than half the votes in the election has control of the Presidency, the Congress and the Senate.  The fact that our system allows a minority group to gain control like this is related to some archaic systems and admittedly the fact that one party figured out how to play the game better than the other.

Its something that most people would probably agree should be fixed, but of course not those in actual power so the odds of that happening soon is slim at best.

What will actually happen after January 20th is still not certain as some of the promises and policies of the new President are likely to be opposed by members of his own party.  How successful they may be will be interesting as we know the administration is not afraid to browbeat people into submission if they can.

Part of the uncertainty is the fact that the policies themselves are so vague in most cases that they will take years to sort, if at all.

Replacing the current health care law is one such issue.  I don't believe there is any replacement that can pass the current congress and senate.  Certainly, removing the individual mandate will make premiums unaffordable especially if the subsidies also go away.  Promises are being made to the American people that don't seem likely to be kept, so it should be interesting.

Consider the plan to implement tax reform.  More possible since the rudiments are pretty straightforward but some of the proposals have negative impacts on people who vote.  Whether this spooks some congress people depends on the coverage.

Similarly with the trade agreements.  Free trade has been a republican goal for as long as I can remember.  Breaking NAFTA and going to a tariff system seems like something that may be very difficult.

There are other issues with the same sort of complexity and we should see how it all sorts out. Remember, the senate does not have a filibuster proof majority so there is some need for compromise right now.

I suspect based on past behavior we are going to see a lot of interesting in-fighting for the next couple of years.


I suspect based