Economics is one of the most boring things in the world.
Unfortunately it is also one of the most important.
There is of course big economics and little economics.
Big economics are things like GDP, trade balances, fed interest rates, inflation, unemployment, etc.
Little economics are things we all deal with, effectively how much we have to pay out versus how much we take in.
We are all aware of the second, but many of us ignore the first.
Ignore isn't probably the right word, when we hear or read how unemployment is going up or down it tends to impact our optimism.
One of our most significant indicators is just that, consumer optimism.
Our economy is largely a consumer economy and the more consumers spend the better it is.
Which brings us to trade and trade balances.
Our economy is extremely large and trade is a relatively small part of it, about 10%.
Not insignificant and it isn't an isolated thing, it influences other area of the economy.
In can greatly influence little economics for certain people.
In most economic theories trade is a good thing since it allows for greater efficiency, by increasing competition which drives down prices.
Driving down prices is good for consumers (we live in a consumer society) but not so good for producers who are forced to compete.
The theory is that cheaper prices benefit everyone and competition eventually levels the playing field for all as everyone is forced to compete.
When you start ahead though, it creates a certain drag on your economy via trade deficits.
A trade deficit, effectively is a transfer of jobs and money to other countries.
The best way to address a trade deficit is to export more, which requires everyone to be more competitive.
The worst way is to adopt protectionist policies that drive up the cost of goods and services.
Lower prices allow spending on other items. If the cost of an imported car is significantly lower, the money saved could allows for more spending on say household appliances.
Whether the imported car resulted in lost jobs is a matter of debate, but even if it did, the lower prices impact many more people and the money they spend creates more jobs than were lost.
As I said at the beginning, economics is boring and can become extremely complex, but trade creates more jobs than it costs.
Of course it depends on whose job we are talking about when you come right down to it.
If its yours, it is a horrible thing.
Thursday, May 31, 2018
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Underlying Racism
There is a quotation from and F Scott Fitzgerald story that effectively says the very rich are different than you and me.
Its not just because they have more money either, its more about an expectation of entitlement.
Its not just the rich though.
I you grew up in a rural farm community you develop a certain view of life while those growing up on the streets of a big city develop an entirely different one.
One is not better than the other and there are clearly others, such as growing up black or ethnic where those outside that group will never really understand certain aspects of their worldview.
Much of who we are is dictated by our early upbringing and while clearly later in life we can add conflicting layers,the early foundation is always there.
There is significant overlap, especially since the advent of TV and now the Internet, which can greatly influence early development, but fundamentally we are who we were then.
This is one of the reasons nostalgia is so prevalent, it reminds us of those, generally care free times, when our needs were taken care of and every day was its own learning adventure.
However it also creates certain biases and beliefs that are hard to dispel.
Which brings me to the situation with Roseanne.
She started out her career portraying who she was, which was pretty much the persona on her TV show with some minor differences.
She resonated with a great number of people who struggle to get by but do their best to survive and raise their family. One characteristic though is a certain disdain for suits and the college educated.
More so when those people are minorities.
So in a moment of total honesty, possibly induced by Ambien, she sent out a terribly racist and indefensible tweet about a women who as far as I can tell had no real interaction with her.
The public comment unfortunately reflect more private views than we might like to admit.
Its not just because they have more money either, its more about an expectation of entitlement.
Its not just the rich though.
I you grew up in a rural farm community you develop a certain view of life while those growing up on the streets of a big city develop an entirely different one.
One is not better than the other and there are clearly others, such as growing up black or ethnic where those outside that group will never really understand certain aspects of their worldview.
Much of who we are is dictated by our early upbringing and while clearly later in life we can add conflicting layers,the early foundation is always there.
There is significant overlap, especially since the advent of TV and now the Internet, which can greatly influence early development, but fundamentally we are who we were then.
This is one of the reasons nostalgia is so prevalent, it reminds us of those, generally care free times, when our needs were taken care of and every day was its own learning adventure.
However it also creates certain biases and beliefs that are hard to dispel.
Which brings me to the situation with Roseanne.
She started out her career portraying who she was, which was pretty much the persona on her TV show with some minor differences.
She resonated with a great number of people who struggle to get by but do their best to survive and raise their family. One characteristic though is a certain disdain for suits and the college educated.
More so when those people are minorities.
So in a moment of total honesty, possibly induced by Ambien, she sent out a terribly racist and indefensible tweet about a women who as far as I can tell had no real interaction with her.
The public comment unfortunately reflect more private views than we might like to admit.
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Energy and Weather
Among the scientific community there is really no legitimate debate about climate change.
The data is clear, there is a warming trend.
There is also almost no debate that human activity in releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere is contributing to this trend.
Sometime we hear people try to argue that there are natural cycles at work, and of course that is true, but in addition to those we have a clear increase in carbon in the atmosphere that is caused by a number of human behaviors.
We really can't do much about the natural cycles but we can alter our behavior.
What is actually happening when we hear about the greenhouse effect caused by this carbon?
Well it creates a reflective barrier which allows solar energy in, but reduces the amount that escapes.
The increased temperatures are causing massive ice melts that in the not so long term are going to flood significant amount of coastline.
Energy also causes weather events.
Now climate and weather are not the same, but they are certainly related. It may seem counter intuitive that more trapped heat can result if greater blizzards but it does.
The more solar energy we trap the stronger weather systems we create.
Of course ultimately this impacts our climate.
When you read how a particular storm or rainfall was a once in a century event or extremely rare, only to see it repeat well within a century or more than rate, its because our historical data is based on eras when we had less energy.
Their ability to predict frequency of future events is questionable.
That we will see stronger events is though quite predictable,
The data is clear, there is a warming trend.
There is also almost no debate that human activity in releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere is contributing to this trend.
Sometime we hear people try to argue that there are natural cycles at work, and of course that is true, but in addition to those we have a clear increase in carbon in the atmosphere that is caused by a number of human behaviors.
We really can't do much about the natural cycles but we can alter our behavior.
What is actually happening when we hear about the greenhouse effect caused by this carbon?
Well it creates a reflective barrier which allows solar energy in, but reduces the amount that escapes.
The increased temperatures are causing massive ice melts that in the not so long term are going to flood significant amount of coastline.
Energy also causes weather events.
Now climate and weather are not the same, but they are certainly related. It may seem counter intuitive that more trapped heat can result if greater blizzards but it does.
The more solar energy we trap the stronger weather systems we create.
Of course ultimately this impacts our climate.
When you read how a particular storm or rainfall was a once in a century event or extremely rare, only to see it repeat well within a century or more than rate, its because our historical data is based on eras when we had less energy.
Their ability to predict frequency of future events is questionable.
That we will see stronger events is though quite predictable,
Monday, May 28, 2018
Great Deal Maker
It seems like the talks with North Korea are on again.
O course it can still change as we know the unpredictability of our dontard.
It seems like the North Korean dictator actually has more of a plan and certainly better control over his minions than our guy does.
It will be interesting to see what comes out of it, although whatever it is will be called the greatest deal ever negotiated by our egotistical dontard.
Doesn't matter what it is, unless of course there is no deal, in which case it will be the greatest walk our of a bad deal ever.
Clearly Muhammad Ali had a great influence on him, although he probably preferred his original name.
I read his ghosted book "The Art of the Deal" quite a few years ago, since my job entailed a lot of negotiations. The book isn't really about negotiations, it was mostly about all the things he had to do to build the Trump Tower, or whatever his first Manhattan building was called.
It certainly was a little interesting, but not of much use unless you had a similar project in the works, and even then probably not much help, except it sort of detailed the process in a very general way.
Ultimately it was a story of appeasement, how much he had to do to get what he needed from the zoning people, the unions and ultimately the buyers of his condos.
So in order to make a profitable deal you have to give as little as possible to get what you want.
Well, that's not really much of a revelation, unless of course you didn't already realize that.
Now what do the two sides want in Korea? One has already got a lot more international recognition before the talks even start. He also wants less American protection for the south and less sanctions.
What will we get in return? Probably about the same thing as we had in Iran, which in this case will be a wonderful, great deal.
Odd how that works.
O course it can still change as we know the unpredictability of our dontard.
It seems like the North Korean dictator actually has more of a plan and certainly better control over his minions than our guy does.
It will be interesting to see what comes out of it, although whatever it is will be called the greatest deal ever negotiated by our egotistical dontard.
Doesn't matter what it is, unless of course there is no deal, in which case it will be the greatest walk our of a bad deal ever.
Clearly Muhammad Ali had a great influence on him, although he probably preferred his original name.
I read his ghosted book "The Art of the Deal" quite a few years ago, since my job entailed a lot of negotiations. The book isn't really about negotiations, it was mostly about all the things he had to do to build the Trump Tower, or whatever his first Manhattan building was called.
It certainly was a little interesting, but not of much use unless you had a similar project in the works, and even then probably not much help, except it sort of detailed the process in a very general way.
Ultimately it was a story of appeasement, how much he had to do to get what he needed from the zoning people, the unions and ultimately the buyers of his condos.
So in order to make a profitable deal you have to give as little as possible to get what you want.
Well, that's not really much of a revelation, unless of course you didn't already realize that.
Now what do the two sides want in Korea? One has already got a lot more international recognition before the talks even start. He also wants less American protection for the south and less sanctions.
What will we get in return? Probably about the same thing as we had in Iran, which in this case will be a wonderful, great deal.
Odd how that works.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
Memorial Day
On Memorial day we honor those who served and didn't return.
No greater sacrifice can be made in defense of freedom and our way of life.
It was not the intention of these men and women to give their lives, as General Patton remarked the goal was to get the other poor bastard die for his country. Still you don't serve without knowing the risks.
There is a lot of talk about how to demonstrate patriotism or showing respect for our country.
We live in a country that allows each of us the right to say what we want and to enjoy the freedoms these men and women died for.
We don't live in a country where everyone has to shout the same slogans or observe the same rituals.
We fought those countries which promoted nationalism over justice and blind compliance over diversity of thought.
Men and women serve for many different reasons now but in World War 2 it was pretty clear what we were fighting for and who we were fighting against.
Not many joined up with the hope of learning a skill, or getting post service benefits.
They fought to defend freedom and this country from tyranny.
Lets not start taking away the freedoms they gave their all for.
Honor them by fulfilling the promise of America.
All men are created equal with certain inalienable rights, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness!
No greater sacrifice can be made in defense of freedom and our way of life.
It was not the intention of these men and women to give their lives, as General Patton remarked the goal was to get the other poor bastard die for his country. Still you don't serve without knowing the risks.
There is a lot of talk about how to demonstrate patriotism or showing respect for our country.
We live in a country that allows each of us the right to say what we want and to enjoy the freedoms these men and women died for.
We don't live in a country where everyone has to shout the same slogans or observe the same rituals.
We fought those countries which promoted nationalism over justice and blind compliance over diversity of thought.
Men and women serve for many different reasons now but in World War 2 it was pretty clear what we were fighting for and who we were fighting against.
Not many joined up with the hope of learning a skill, or getting post service benefits.
They fought to defend freedom and this country from tyranny.
Lets not start taking away the freedoms they gave their all for.
Honor them by fulfilling the promise of America.
All men are created equal with certain inalienable rights, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness!
Saturday, May 26, 2018
CEO Pay
One of the things that I find a bit perplexing is how much we pay CEOs.
I'm not talking about owners/CEOs, just executives who get appointed to be the CEO of a company.
Arguably they work long hours, they are expected to be on call pretty much all the time and they have to produce results to stay in the job, so they certainly deserve to be paid, but the numbers are simply astronomical.
It seems to have followed the world of sports in some steep escalation during my lifetime. The following article discusses the latest increases to their pay.
CEO Pay
Interestingly this is the first year that the companies had to report the multiple of CEO pay to average pay. Some of that can be distorted, but its still illuminating.
Of course the pay package gets voted on by the stockholders, many of whom are institutional investors who see nothing wrong with salaries like this. Some of them make even more.
It just becomes difficult to imagine how a CEO is worth hundred of times more than an average worker.
The simple answer is of course because they can. We now live in a world where a tremendous value is put on these people and it isn't going to change anytime soon.
Once again these aren't the great entrepreneurs or titans of industry, they are executives who rose through the ranks in most cases and were more than richly rewarded.
In the total picture of these companies it isn't much of an expense, but in the realm of decency and equality it certainly is.
I'm not talking about owners/CEOs, just executives who get appointed to be the CEO of a company.
Arguably they work long hours, they are expected to be on call pretty much all the time and they have to produce results to stay in the job, so they certainly deserve to be paid, but the numbers are simply astronomical.
It seems to have followed the world of sports in some steep escalation during my lifetime. The following article discusses the latest increases to their pay.
CEO Pay
Interestingly this is the first year that the companies had to report the multiple of CEO pay to average pay. Some of that can be distorted, but its still illuminating.
Of course the pay package gets voted on by the stockholders, many of whom are institutional investors who see nothing wrong with salaries like this. Some of them make even more.
It just becomes difficult to imagine how a CEO is worth hundred of times more than an average worker.
The simple answer is of course because they can. We now live in a world where a tremendous value is put on these people and it isn't going to change anytime soon.
Once again these aren't the great entrepreneurs or titans of industry, they are executives who rose through the ranks in most cases and were more than richly rewarded.
In the total picture of these companies it isn't much of an expense, but in the realm of decency and equality it certainly is.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Complex Matters
It seems like foreign relations is turning out to be complex, much like health care, who would have thunk it?
After all, when all you did was criticize everything your predecessors did in tweets based on the phony stuff you see on Fox news, well the world is simple.
America needs to demand all the other countries toe the line.
Make our allies pay more for things.
Stop letting the UN be so, well international.
Make those mid-eastern countries stop fighting, he didn't understand what they were fighting over anyways.
Ban those Islamic American haters who attacked us.
Back out of our negotiated deals, we didn't get everything we could possible want.
Take a long time to fill important posts and then send unqualified but loyal people.
Praise oppressive dictators while attacking our intelligence communities.
Move our Embassy to Jerusalem, who would object to that?
Help China and Russia greatly expand their influence in the world as ours wanes.
Make our European allies start to treat us as an adversary, as we threaten them with sanctions for keeping their word with Iran.
Teach the whole world that we can't be trusted, our word is meaningless, and our intentions are purely selfish.
America first?
America alone?
After all, when all you did was criticize everything your predecessors did in tweets based on the phony stuff you see on Fox news, well the world is simple.
America needs to demand all the other countries toe the line.
Make our allies pay more for things.
Stop letting the UN be so, well international.
Make those mid-eastern countries stop fighting, he didn't understand what they were fighting over anyways.
Ban those Islamic American haters who attacked us.
Back out of our negotiated deals, we didn't get everything we could possible want.
Take a long time to fill important posts and then send unqualified but loyal people.
Praise oppressive dictators while attacking our intelligence communities.
Move our Embassy to Jerusalem, who would object to that?
Help China and Russia greatly expand their influence in the world as ours wanes.
Make our European allies start to treat us as an adversary, as we threaten them with sanctions for keeping their word with Iran.
Teach the whole world that we can't be trusted, our word is meaningless, and our intentions are purely selfish.
America first?
America alone?
Thursday, May 24, 2018
Lies and Lies and Lies
There is a quote by the dontard in which he says , "I know words, I have the best words..."
He never claimed to know what the words meant though.
Its pretty clear that he doesn't.
He clearly uses words somewhat randomly, and make up a few but he may actually know what bigly means.
However clearly he has no clue in regards to transparent, or collusion, or obstruction.
He kept talking about how he wanted a transparent process to look at the documents related to the latest silly accusations about the justice department and FBI but the only people invited were two biased Republicans.
They most likely had long ago drawn their conclusions about what to say.
That would have been about as transparent as the Washington monument.
Since he is the clear record holder for lying as a President, long ago surpassing any contenders, it seems like we should come up with a word for his administration to fit in with the way he labels people.
Famously the Nixon administration was brought down by an informant who went by the name Deep Throat, which was in fact a porn reference.
Don't need an informant in this case, but maybe we could go with Stormy Liar for the dontard?
Seems to fit.
He never claimed to know what the words meant though.
Its pretty clear that he doesn't.
He clearly uses words somewhat randomly, and make up a few but he may actually know what bigly means.
However clearly he has no clue in regards to transparent, or collusion, or obstruction.
He kept talking about how he wanted a transparent process to look at the documents related to the latest silly accusations about the justice department and FBI but the only people invited were two biased Republicans.
They most likely had long ago drawn their conclusions about what to say.
That would have been about as transparent as the Washington monument.
Since he is the clear record holder for lying as a President, long ago surpassing any contenders, it seems like we should come up with a word for his administration to fit in with the way he labels people.
Famously the Nixon administration was brought down by an informant who went by the name Deep Throat, which was in fact a porn reference.
Don't need an informant in this case, but maybe we could go with Stormy Liar for the dontard?
Seems to fit.
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Web of Lies
You can always tell when the dontard is lying, he is tweeting or talking.
Accepting that a certain portion of the population actually believes that there is a Government that conspires against its own citizens and that the moon landing was faked, just saying something outrageous has its advantages.
If nothing else it allows the real misdeeds to seem like they are no worse than the false ones perpetrated via these lies.
You wonder about some of the people who help this happen, since at least some of them actually had certain individual accomplishments and some credibility.
I guess the same thing might have been true about some members of the Nazi party when it formed.
The dontard is really not in the same league, he is more of a third world character.
Idi Amin rose to power in Uganda and spouted some of the most outrageous lies, which played in his home country for a while at least.
Of course it all came apart at some point.
It usually does.
Accepting that a certain portion of the population actually believes that there is a Government that conspires against its own citizens and that the moon landing was faked, just saying something outrageous has its advantages.
If nothing else it allows the real misdeeds to seem like they are no worse than the false ones perpetrated via these lies.
You wonder about some of the people who help this happen, since at least some of them actually had certain individual accomplishments and some credibility.
I guess the same thing might have been true about some members of the Nazi party when it formed.
The dontard is really not in the same league, he is more of a third world character.
Idi Amin rose to power in Uganda and spouted some of the most outrageous lies, which played in his home country for a while at least.
Of course it all came apart at some point.
It usually does.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Distractions
You have to admire how professional media people manage to report ludicrous things without breaking down.
I had a long drive last night and listening to the news announcers report with a straight fact that the Attorney General and FBI are going to humor the dontard and the republican congress over things that are simply, well ludicrous is a credit to the professionalism they display.
First the FBI IG is going to investigate whether the FBI inserted a mole into the dontard's campaign when there would have been absolutely no reason to do so. Everyone actually knows it didn't happen, but we have the clown president who tries to convince his followers he is being victimized by the deep state.
Meanwhile he comes down against workers every chance he gets, since well the owners are the important people, they have donation money.
The FBI is also going to humor the republicans in the house who have been trying to get them to disclose a confidential source. Now confidential sources don't like to be exposed and they are promised such as part of their agreements. Being exposed could expose them to significant risk and would make recruiting future CIs more difficult.
They are going to share some classified materials in private to assuage the morons trying to do this, but since the idea is to sling accusations to try to distract the public, doubt it will work.
Sadly the dontard is getting more and more desperate so this sort of thing will continue.
I had a long drive last night and listening to the news announcers report with a straight fact that the Attorney General and FBI are going to humor the dontard and the republican congress over things that are simply, well ludicrous is a credit to the professionalism they display.
First the FBI IG is going to investigate whether the FBI inserted a mole into the dontard's campaign when there would have been absolutely no reason to do so. Everyone actually knows it didn't happen, but we have the clown president who tries to convince his followers he is being victimized by the deep state.
Meanwhile he comes down against workers every chance he gets, since well the owners are the important people, they have donation money.
The FBI is also going to humor the republicans in the house who have been trying to get them to disclose a confidential source. Now confidential sources don't like to be exposed and they are promised such as part of their agreements. Being exposed could expose them to significant risk and would make recruiting future CIs more difficult.
They are going to share some classified materials in private to assuage the morons trying to do this, but since the idea is to sling accusations to try to distract the public, doubt it will work.
Sadly the dontard is getting more and more desperate so this sort of thing will continue.
Monday, May 21, 2018
Cornered?
Everybody sees the world slightly differently based on our background and general biases.
Whether you see a glass as half full or half empty depends on us, not the glass. It holds the same amount of fluid either way.
Similarly, some feel like they control events and others feel like they don't.
The way we perceive these things can also change over time as circumstances change.
At a certain point, some people actually start to see things so differently than most that it indicates a mental illness.
We recently see our dontard flailing about trying to find a reason his actions are being questioned.
It can't be his fault or his campaigns, so he has been unjustly targeted by law enforcement or his political opponents.
That's an extremely unlikely scenario, because even though he eventually won the electoral college, no one thought he would.
Its not the time when Nixon was unleashing his henchmen to guarantee a victory, we are talking about an extremely ethical president.
The flailing about is probably indicative of an awareness that there is some real danger to him.
Time will tell.
Whether you see a glass as half full or half empty depends on us, not the glass. It holds the same amount of fluid either way.
Similarly, some feel like they control events and others feel like they don't.
The way we perceive these things can also change over time as circumstances change.
At a certain point, some people actually start to see things so differently than most that it indicates a mental illness.
We recently see our dontard flailing about trying to find a reason his actions are being questioned.
It can't be his fault or his campaigns, so he has been unjustly targeted by law enforcement or his political opponents.
That's an extremely unlikely scenario, because even though he eventually won the electoral college, no one thought he would.
Its not the time when Nixon was unleashing his henchmen to guarantee a victory, we are talking about an extremely ethical president.
The flailing about is probably indicative of an awareness that there is some real danger to him.
Time will tell.
Sunday, May 20, 2018
Royal Wedding
Well there was a royal wedding which was filled with pomp and pageantry, not to mention a lot of hats.
It included a bit of a rags to riches story as an American actress of mixed heritage married Prince Harry and became the wife of the man who is sixth in line to the throne.
That pretty much guarantees he will never be king.
Still it created a lot of interest here as well as news coverage and provided a break from our tweeting dontard as people who have class demonstrated what that means.
The British monarchy is more of a figurehead serving as head of State, not head of Government.
It wasn't always like that and the history of the monarchy is an interesting read for those with a historical bent.
Today of course it only really has influence to the extent the country pays attention and the current Queen is a bit of an institution, having ruled so long and from all appearances so popularly.
Her son Charles may or may not ever get to be king, I sort of imagine he will, if much later in life than he once expected.
He is in some ways best known in this country for being the husband of Princess Di, who was very popular and had enough tragedy in her life to live on in many memories.
It was one of her sons getting married yesterday and the coverage pointed that out at least a few times.
Still as meaningless as the whole thing was to the world at large, it was a nice distraction and they had a beautiful English day in May to start their lives together.
I wish them the best.
It included a bit of a rags to riches story as an American actress of mixed heritage married Prince Harry and became the wife of the man who is sixth in line to the throne.
That pretty much guarantees he will never be king.
Still it created a lot of interest here as well as news coverage and provided a break from our tweeting dontard as people who have class demonstrated what that means.
The British monarchy is more of a figurehead serving as head of State, not head of Government.
It wasn't always like that and the history of the monarchy is an interesting read for those with a historical bent.
Today of course it only really has influence to the extent the country pays attention and the current Queen is a bit of an institution, having ruled so long and from all appearances so popularly.
Her son Charles may or may not ever get to be king, I sort of imagine he will, if much later in life than he once expected.
He is in some ways best known in this country for being the husband of Princess Di, who was very popular and had enough tragedy in her life to live on in many memories.
It was one of her sons getting married yesterday and the coverage pointed that out at least a few times.
Still as meaningless as the whole thing was to the world at large, it was a nice distraction and they had a beautiful English day in May to start their lives together.
I wish them the best.
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Immigrants and Gun Violence
The scary truth is that pretty much every crime in this country is committed by an immigrant or a descendant of an immigrant!
Unless of course its committed by a Native American.
As a country of immigrants we obviously see what happens with immigrants over time.
They are us, and I guess we are untrustworthy.
We had another school shooting in Texas this time and I refuse to consider them normal no matter how many we have.
The fact that the guns used in this event didn't include an assault rifle, doesn't make them safer than the day before.
All guns are dangerous both to the owners (look at suicide statistics) and to innocent bystanders.
If the school shootings were the result of gang violence, the uproar would be tremendous with all sort of propositions to eradicate those animals.
Since they are the result of a deranged individual who was able to access very deadly weapons and murder innocents, it will result in meaningless offers of sympathy and little action.
Unless we really demand it.
If you own a gun, you must take responsibility for it, secure it and accept that it is a right that also carries responsibilities.
Its time to do something.
Unless of course its committed by a Native American.
As a country of immigrants we obviously see what happens with immigrants over time.
They are us, and I guess we are untrustworthy.
We had another school shooting in Texas this time and I refuse to consider them normal no matter how many we have.
The fact that the guns used in this event didn't include an assault rifle, doesn't make them safer than the day before.
All guns are dangerous both to the owners (look at suicide statistics) and to innocent bystanders.
If the school shootings were the result of gang violence, the uproar would be tremendous with all sort of propositions to eradicate those animals.
Since they are the result of a deranged individual who was able to access very deadly weapons and murder innocents, it will result in meaningless offers of sympathy and little action.
Unless we really demand it.
If you own a gun, you must take responsibility for it, secure it and accept that it is a right that also carries responsibilities.
Its time to do something.
Friday, May 18, 2018
Foreign Policy?
We are seeing a general reaction to our policies in the rest of the world that shows how far we have fallen in a very short time.
We used to both be feared, respected and admired.
Now we are probably still feared, but very little respect or admiration.
Our European allies are working closely with Russia and China to find a way to maintain the Iran nuclear deal.
Our more immediate neighbors are tied down in negotiations over NAFTA with what seems like little progress.
We withdrew from the Paris climate accords which is widely viewed as the act of an idiot since it effectively simply promised to try and reduce the impact of environmental pollution. Have we decided to pollute instead?
We withdrew from the trans-Pacific trade agreement, driving our Pacific allies closer to China.
Negotiation in Korea, which seemed promising at one time are now jeopardized because we have administration hard liners putting out demands on media appearances.
Of course we have the ongoing twitter nonsense that is the subject of ridicule everywhere.
We have the record number of lies put out by the administration, or at least the head of it.
We have unqualified diplomats to major countries who act like the very definition of an "Ugly American", blundering and blustering along.
From world leader to world clown, who has a big club.
Speak softly but carry a big stick has been replaced with idiotic posturing and unpredictable behavior.
America first? Doesn't look like it.
We used to both be feared, respected and admired.
Now we are probably still feared, but very little respect or admiration.
Our European allies are working closely with Russia and China to find a way to maintain the Iran nuclear deal.
Our more immediate neighbors are tied down in negotiations over NAFTA with what seems like little progress.
We withdrew from the Paris climate accords which is widely viewed as the act of an idiot since it effectively simply promised to try and reduce the impact of environmental pollution. Have we decided to pollute instead?
We withdrew from the trans-Pacific trade agreement, driving our Pacific allies closer to China.
Negotiation in Korea, which seemed promising at one time are now jeopardized because we have administration hard liners putting out demands on media appearances.
Of course we have the ongoing twitter nonsense that is the subject of ridicule everywhere.
We have the record number of lies put out by the administration, or at least the head of it.
We have unqualified diplomats to major countries who act like the very definition of an "Ugly American", blundering and blustering along.
From world leader to world clown, who has a big club.
Speak softly but carry a big stick has been replaced with idiotic posturing and unpredictable behavior.
America first? Doesn't look like it.
Thursday, May 17, 2018
Freedom from Bigotry
There are people in America who espouse things that I totally detest.
Generally anything that would diminish or demean a fellow human.
It seems all too common for people to develop an us vs them mentality.
We like to belong to a group, just not all inclusive ones.
We see this now out in the open with the dontard referring to some immigrants as animals and other members of his cabinet saying they can't assimilate.
We have nothing but assimilated people here, unfortunately a certain number got assimilated into racist views.
Where a person is born and the wealth of their parents is not something any of us can control.
I get a kick our of those who talk about people needing to better themselves or climb out of poverty who then try to beat up on immigrants trying to do just that.
I was reading a story about a lawyer in New York who apparently took offense at some people talking Spanish and threatened to call ICE. He is also apparently on record about how his tax dollars support undocumented immigrants on welfare, a very unlikely scenario.
New York has a large Hispanic population, including a very large number of Puerto Ricans who happen to be US Citizens. The odds that two working people who speak Spanish are undocumented, is slim to say the least, at least in cosmopolitan New York.
What is this obsession with speaking English?
I grew up quite a while ago in a city where you could hear a dozen different languages and see a dozen or more newspapers in Chinese, Spanish, Yiddish, etc.
English was the common language but how people talked to each other was their concern, not mine.
It is simply the worst sort of bigotry to try to make people behave in a certain way as long as what they are doing is legal.
Try reading the Bill of Rights for a change.
Generally anything that would diminish or demean a fellow human.
It seems all too common for people to develop an us vs them mentality.
We like to belong to a group, just not all inclusive ones.
We see this now out in the open with the dontard referring to some immigrants as animals and other members of his cabinet saying they can't assimilate.
We have nothing but assimilated people here, unfortunately a certain number got assimilated into racist views.
Where a person is born and the wealth of their parents is not something any of us can control.
I get a kick our of those who talk about people needing to better themselves or climb out of poverty who then try to beat up on immigrants trying to do just that.
I was reading a story about a lawyer in New York who apparently took offense at some people talking Spanish and threatened to call ICE. He is also apparently on record about how his tax dollars support undocumented immigrants on welfare, a very unlikely scenario.
New York has a large Hispanic population, including a very large number of Puerto Ricans who happen to be US Citizens. The odds that two working people who speak Spanish are undocumented, is slim to say the least, at least in cosmopolitan New York.
What is this obsession with speaking English?
I grew up quite a while ago in a city where you could hear a dozen different languages and see a dozen or more newspapers in Chinese, Spanish, Yiddish, etc.
English was the common language but how people talked to each other was their concern, not mine.
It is simply the worst sort of bigotry to try to make people behave in a certain way as long as what they are doing is legal.
Try reading the Bill of Rights for a change.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Economy Slowing
There are a number of signs that the economic recovery that started under the last administration and continued under the current one is starting to slow.
Oil prices are up, new jobs are down, housing starts are down, interest rates are up.
In any trend there will be deviations, so it is possibly just a minor slowing.
It isn't the rapid acceleration the supply siders expected from the tax cuts since it seems that as predicted the companies and wealthy decided to pocket the extra money or use it for share buybacks.
Generally most capital expansion is financed, its a better way to match expected cash flow to outlays, since a purchase requires a large initial expenditure.
Money has a time value and spending up front for future returns is a tough math problem for people who do that sort of thing. Ideally a new investment pays for itself as quickly as possible and then creates a positive cash flow for its remaining life.
When interest rates go up, capital investment goes down. Of course it doesn't dry up immediately but it doesn't expand overall for sure.
The other negative that may have a significant impact on the economy is the trade issues under the current administration. The balance of trade is one of those things that over time fixes itself. Of course given the size of the American market, there is a lot more opportunity to sell items here for most of our trading partners.
It corrects itself over time as they become more prosperous and have more money to buy our goods.
The negative impact of this is actually a fairly minor one, unless of course you are a victim, meaning your job moved elsewhere or your business can't compete. It is a sad situation, but every economic development has both winners and losers, as those who adapt faster win and those who can't lose.
Trying to turn the clock back doesn't work, as it introduces inefficiency which costs everybody more for less.
The solution is to learn how to compete and develop cutting edge technology while expanding trade and opportunities.
Or we can do the opposite.
Oil prices are up, new jobs are down, housing starts are down, interest rates are up.
In any trend there will be deviations, so it is possibly just a minor slowing.
It isn't the rapid acceleration the supply siders expected from the tax cuts since it seems that as predicted the companies and wealthy decided to pocket the extra money or use it for share buybacks.
Generally most capital expansion is financed, its a better way to match expected cash flow to outlays, since a purchase requires a large initial expenditure.
Money has a time value and spending up front for future returns is a tough math problem for people who do that sort of thing. Ideally a new investment pays for itself as quickly as possible and then creates a positive cash flow for its remaining life.
When interest rates go up, capital investment goes down. Of course it doesn't dry up immediately but it doesn't expand overall for sure.
The other negative that may have a significant impact on the economy is the trade issues under the current administration. The balance of trade is one of those things that over time fixes itself. Of course given the size of the American market, there is a lot more opportunity to sell items here for most of our trading partners.
It corrects itself over time as they become more prosperous and have more money to buy our goods.
The negative impact of this is actually a fairly minor one, unless of course you are a victim, meaning your job moved elsewhere or your business can't compete. It is a sad situation, but every economic development has both winners and losers, as those who adapt faster win and those who can't lose.
Trying to turn the clock back doesn't work, as it introduces inefficiency which costs everybody more for less.
The solution is to learn how to compete and develop cutting edge technology while expanding trade and opportunities.
Or we can do the opposite.
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Religion
Religion is pretty universal in general but very varied in specifics.
In this country we tend to think that Christianity is the dominant religion, and it is here, but worldwide it isn't.
It is a major religion but the latest estimates are that about a third of the world's population follow it.
Of course it is derived from Judaism which is not a major religion based on number of adherents, but a very influential one.
Islam is estimated to be the second largest religion and is growing while Christianity isn't.
Islam is actually closely related to Judaism and Christianity in many ways.
The other major religions, Hinduism and Buddhism are very different in origin although in certain things all the major religions impose similar behaviors, with different rituals.
People with no religion and atheists qualify as a major group and if you called them a religion, they would be either the 4th or 5th largest. That depends on how many people actually practice Buddhism.
The point is that even those who practice no religion still in most cases follow a similar set of behavioral rules, such as treat people with respect (love thy neighbor), respect property and relationships etc.
Of course both those who practice religions and those who don't are known to stray behaviorally.
It would seem that we have a genetic disposition to following certain behavioral rules which can be classified as good and bad.
Organized religions can be quite problematic in that they claim to interpret God's will and direct behavior that otherwise would be immoral.
The idea that God would communicate through these people is of course a matter of faith and what is hard to address if you think about it is why he would favor one religion over another in that respect.
The idea that God intervenes in our lives is pure egoism.
When I see a successful person thanking God for his/her success I wonder if they really think God liked them more than their opponent?
I find the idea perplexing at best.
In this country we tend to think that Christianity is the dominant religion, and it is here, but worldwide it isn't.
It is a major religion but the latest estimates are that about a third of the world's population follow it.
Of course it is derived from Judaism which is not a major religion based on number of adherents, but a very influential one.
Islam is estimated to be the second largest religion and is growing while Christianity isn't.
Islam is actually closely related to Judaism and Christianity in many ways.
The other major religions, Hinduism and Buddhism are very different in origin although in certain things all the major religions impose similar behaviors, with different rituals.
People with no religion and atheists qualify as a major group and if you called them a religion, they would be either the 4th or 5th largest. That depends on how many people actually practice Buddhism.
The point is that even those who practice no religion still in most cases follow a similar set of behavioral rules, such as treat people with respect (love thy neighbor), respect property and relationships etc.
Of course both those who practice religions and those who don't are known to stray behaviorally.
It would seem that we have a genetic disposition to following certain behavioral rules which can be classified as good and bad.
Organized religions can be quite problematic in that they claim to interpret God's will and direct behavior that otherwise would be immoral.
The idea that God would communicate through these people is of course a matter of faith and what is hard to address if you think about it is why he would favor one religion over another in that respect.
The idea that God intervenes in our lives is pure egoism.
When I see a successful person thanking God for his/her success I wonder if they really think God liked them more than their opponent?
I find the idea perplexing at best.
Monday, May 14, 2018
Voting
It remains to be seen how the election are going to go in 2018.
A lot is going to depend on the candidates who end up running and on a promising note we are seeing more new candidates, including many more women contesting seats.
There should be no safe seats in this country, they should all be earned.
Safe seats lead to complacency where the interests of all the constituents are often ignored for the interests of the donors.
Some think term limits are the answer, and they certainly have some impact but the real solution is simply to get participation.
The people who don't vote in this country are clearly the losers.
Many of them don't vote because they think it doesn't matter, but it really does, and not voting means its going to stay pretty much the same.
If you look at Government and wonder why they don't seem to be anything like you, well that's because you didn't vote.
Each vote is valuable, even if the candidate you vote for doesn't win.
It expresses an opinion in the only forum that the politicians care about.
Having an opponent challenge an incumbent's positions is the best way to get those positions in front of the electorate.
Of course in many elections now the only communication is via paid media ads that tend to give you very little information about the candidates, except negative information about his/her opponent.
Challenge all incumbents, get the information about their positions and exercise your right to vote.
America should reflect all Americans, not just some.
A lot is going to depend on the candidates who end up running and on a promising note we are seeing more new candidates, including many more women contesting seats.
There should be no safe seats in this country, they should all be earned.
Safe seats lead to complacency where the interests of all the constituents are often ignored for the interests of the donors.
Some think term limits are the answer, and they certainly have some impact but the real solution is simply to get participation.
The people who don't vote in this country are clearly the losers.
Many of them don't vote because they think it doesn't matter, but it really does, and not voting means its going to stay pretty much the same.
If you look at Government and wonder why they don't seem to be anything like you, well that's because you didn't vote.
Each vote is valuable, even if the candidate you vote for doesn't win.
It expresses an opinion in the only forum that the politicians care about.
Having an opponent challenge an incumbent's positions is the best way to get those positions in front of the electorate.
Of course in many elections now the only communication is via paid media ads that tend to give you very little information about the candidates, except negative information about his/her opponent.
Challenge all incumbents, get the information about their positions and exercise your right to vote.
America should reflect all Americans, not just some.
Sunday, May 13, 2018
Happy Mother's Day
Mothers day doesn't seem like something we should need but its certainly right to give thanks to Mothers for what they do.
There is no us without mothers.
While the modern version of Mother's day only started a little over a 100 years ago, the mother spirit has been honored in most ancient cultures.
If you are lucky enough to still have your mother with you, appreciate what she has done for you on this day, but also every day.
Happy Mother's Day!
There is no us without mothers.
While the modern version of Mother's day only started a little over a 100 years ago, the mother spirit has been honored in most ancient cultures.
If you are lucky enough to still have your mother with you, appreciate what she has done for you on this day, but also every day.
Happy Mother's Day!
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Protecting Drug Profits
Everybody is entitled to a fair profit when they develop and market a product. The problem is determining what is fair.
The cost of producing a drug once developed and approved is relatively minor generally, which is why generics are so much cheaper.
It's the cost of developing drugs both the successful ones and the unsuccessful ones that drives up pricing of brand name drugs generally.
I don't know the percentage of successful to unsuccessful drug development efforts, but its not 100%, so the drugs that get to market have to pay for the total cost of research.
Of course in addition the drug companies themselves want to make a profit for their shareholders.
Its also true that because of patent laws, the window to make these profits is limited.
Like many other things, the dontard talked about how he was going to fix the problem of drug pricing during his campaign.
What he did yesterday, fixed our current pricing for the immediate future.
Not sure that's what his listeners expected but his main ideas are more competition and to make those socialist Europeans pay more so we can pay less.
Yeah, like the Mexicans are paying for a wall.
The competition is restricted by patent law which he can't change, but I'm convinced he thinks that people never considered it before.
I know its a lot more complex than he realized.
Everything is.
The cost of producing a drug once developed and approved is relatively minor generally, which is why generics are so much cheaper.
It's the cost of developing drugs both the successful ones and the unsuccessful ones that drives up pricing of brand name drugs generally.
I don't know the percentage of successful to unsuccessful drug development efforts, but its not 100%, so the drugs that get to market have to pay for the total cost of research.
Of course in addition the drug companies themselves want to make a profit for their shareholders.
Its also true that because of patent laws, the window to make these profits is limited.
Like many other things, the dontard talked about how he was going to fix the problem of drug pricing during his campaign.
What he did yesterday, fixed our current pricing for the immediate future.
Not sure that's what his listeners expected but his main ideas are more competition and to make those socialist Europeans pay more so we can pay less.
Yeah, like the Mexicans are paying for a wall.
The competition is restricted by patent law which he can't change, but I'm convinced he thinks that people never considered it before.
I know its a lot more complex than he realized.
Everything is.
Friday, May 11, 2018
Fairness?
Fairness in the United States is tricky.
Almost everyone seems to believe that the deck is stacked against them, with the possible exception of the very wealthy.
Clearly we have certain groups that have suffered outright discrimination, at first legally and then simply via custom.
Many working class people whether white, black or Hispanic see how hard it is to live the American dream and feel others get all the breaks.
People who live alternative lifestyles are bullied and to some extent ostracized.
Others feel that Government benefits only help others, whoever they might be.
Many graduates are now saddle with excessive debt that will haunt them for many years.
Drug prices are in many cases outrageous and there is little relief in sight.
Even the way we run our elections lead to undemocratic and unfair outcomes.
The list can go on and on but why?
We have a system that isn't at its essence trying to be fair, its trying to be uninvolved.
The country believes in fairness but doesn't like Government.
Government programs are therefore hard and more complex than they probably need to be, since they are generally designed to catch cheaters as much as to help people.
The press loves to expose people who have cheated the system, to the point where we are forced to jump through hoops to prove what is patently obvious in many cases.
The general nature of our society is that we don't trust people we don't know personally.
Take a Government program like food stamps. People think of it as a giveaway which is full of abuse, unless you need to get them, in which case it is a program with lots of restrictions for a pretty puny benefit. Some of the restrictions are illogical and we now want to impose more restrictions.
It is constantly under attack and represents a tiny amount of the budget. It also is one of the few programs that helps the very poor get some nutrition.
Is it abused? Well unfortunately it would be impossible to devise a program that has no abuse.
If you don't get food stamps the program is a give away, if you do it is unfair in its restrictions and requirements.
Many of our other programs are the same and part of the reason is we treat them like pariahs. You don't see many politicians running of how they improved social programs, except about how they reduced corruption and fraud.
Corruption and Fraud are the main attributes of these programs it seems.
Hardly seems fair.
Almost everyone seems to believe that the deck is stacked against them, with the possible exception of the very wealthy.
Clearly we have certain groups that have suffered outright discrimination, at first legally and then simply via custom.
Many working class people whether white, black or Hispanic see how hard it is to live the American dream and feel others get all the breaks.
People who live alternative lifestyles are bullied and to some extent ostracized.
Others feel that Government benefits only help others, whoever they might be.
Many graduates are now saddle with excessive debt that will haunt them for many years.
Drug prices are in many cases outrageous and there is little relief in sight.
Even the way we run our elections lead to undemocratic and unfair outcomes.
The list can go on and on but why?
We have a system that isn't at its essence trying to be fair, its trying to be uninvolved.
The country believes in fairness but doesn't like Government.
Government programs are therefore hard and more complex than they probably need to be, since they are generally designed to catch cheaters as much as to help people.
The press loves to expose people who have cheated the system, to the point where we are forced to jump through hoops to prove what is patently obvious in many cases.
The general nature of our society is that we don't trust people we don't know personally.
Take a Government program like food stamps. People think of it as a giveaway which is full of abuse, unless you need to get them, in which case it is a program with lots of restrictions for a pretty puny benefit. Some of the restrictions are illogical and we now want to impose more restrictions.
It is constantly under attack and represents a tiny amount of the budget. It also is one of the few programs that helps the very poor get some nutrition.
Is it abused? Well unfortunately it would be impossible to devise a program that has no abuse.
If you don't get food stamps the program is a give away, if you do it is unfair in its restrictions and requirements.
Many of our other programs are the same and part of the reason is we treat them like pariahs. You don't see many politicians running of how they improved social programs, except about how they reduced corruption and fraud.
Corruption and Fraud are the main attributes of these programs it seems.
Hardly seems fair.
Thursday, May 10, 2018
Complex Things
Life is both simple and complex.
Everyone deals with life and either instinctively or through early learning we develop a set of skills that we use every day. Walking, talking, observing, planning, and other almost automatic things that we do without thinking much about them at all.
These skills were the ones required to survive before we achieved a civilized status. Of course some skill common among primitive people have been lost in our civilized world. Generally most of us don't need to know how to make a fire, something that was essential to our ancestors.
Life gets complex as we attempt to answer the question why.
This may be the trait that makes us most unique on this planet, although we certainly see a certain amount of inquisitive behavior in other species.
I doubt that many animals, even those close to us genetically speaking, spend a lot of time figuring out how did they get here or why the sun rises and sets. They have to deal with surviving on a daily basis.
It requires a certain degree of security to worry about things that you don't need today to survive.
We want answers that explain the world around us. The answers are important and it is this quest for knowledge that led to the rise of our civilizations as we learned how to grow the right plants, exploit the right animals, build shelters that allowed us to populate even hostile portion of the planet and our continuing technological development.
Still, many if not most of us understand very little of how much of this works and we rely on people with knowledge to make things work.
We don't even know how to gather and kill our own food, let alone survive in the "wild".
We certainly don't understand how much of the things we use everyday actually work.
This complexity and lack of knowledge makes us susceptible to those who know or claim to know the answers. It is this lack of knowledge that leads to both gullibility and suspicion.
We like politicians who give us simple answers. It is reassuring to think that we can solve a problem simply by doing something simple.
Unfortunately it doesn't work so we start to suspect they are lying to us. They are, some more than others, but we still go for it over and over.
Its just easier to go with the simple answer, we think we understand it.
Everyone deals with life and either instinctively or through early learning we develop a set of skills that we use every day. Walking, talking, observing, planning, and other almost automatic things that we do without thinking much about them at all.
These skills were the ones required to survive before we achieved a civilized status. Of course some skill common among primitive people have been lost in our civilized world. Generally most of us don't need to know how to make a fire, something that was essential to our ancestors.
Life gets complex as we attempt to answer the question why.
This may be the trait that makes us most unique on this planet, although we certainly see a certain amount of inquisitive behavior in other species.
I doubt that many animals, even those close to us genetically speaking, spend a lot of time figuring out how did they get here or why the sun rises and sets. They have to deal with surviving on a daily basis.
It requires a certain degree of security to worry about things that you don't need today to survive.
We want answers that explain the world around us. The answers are important and it is this quest for knowledge that led to the rise of our civilizations as we learned how to grow the right plants, exploit the right animals, build shelters that allowed us to populate even hostile portion of the planet and our continuing technological development.
Still, many if not most of us understand very little of how much of this works and we rely on people with knowledge to make things work.
We don't even know how to gather and kill our own food, let alone survive in the "wild".
We certainly don't understand how much of the things we use everyday actually work.
This complexity and lack of knowledge makes us susceptible to those who know or claim to know the answers. It is this lack of knowledge that leads to both gullibility and suspicion.
We like politicians who give us simple answers. It is reassuring to think that we can solve a problem simply by doing something simple.
Unfortunately it doesn't work so we start to suspect they are lying to us. They are, some more than others, but we still go for it over and over.
Its just easier to go with the simple answer, we think we understand it.
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
What Now?
Whether the decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal has significant repercussions or not is now in the hands of the rest of the world.
It is also not clear if it will cause Iran to resume its nuclear weapons program.
It certainly makes it more likely but it is by no means certain.
This type of approach, playing hardball and demanding concessions without offsetting offers is favored by groups that generally ignore the fact that the United States, as influential as it is, is not the only player in these things.
Clearly our influence is greater when we have world public opinion with us, which in this case we clearly don't.
Iran is a large country ruled by clerics ultimately which isn't necessarily persuaded by economic or political interests.
There hard liners are opposed to dealing with the Western Devils and we just gave them a big boost by going back on our word.
Will this eventually lead to a better agreement?
I tend to doubt that, but the world is somewhat unpredictable.
As unlikely as it seems, Iran has an economic mess that is leading to a degree of unrest that could lead to regime change.
That change could however be to a hard line government with no desire to deal with us.
Does the deal put us in danger?
Not directly, except of course that Iran may finance more terrorist groups.
It may increase risk in Israel which is obviously in a much more vulnerable place.
The fallout will happen and the only thing certain is that it helps Russia and China become more influential in the region as Iran reacts.
What Europe does will be decisive.
It is also not clear if it will cause Iran to resume its nuclear weapons program.
It certainly makes it more likely but it is by no means certain.
This type of approach, playing hardball and demanding concessions without offsetting offers is favored by groups that generally ignore the fact that the United States, as influential as it is, is not the only player in these things.
Clearly our influence is greater when we have world public opinion with us, which in this case we clearly don't.
Iran is a large country ruled by clerics ultimately which isn't necessarily persuaded by economic or political interests.
There hard liners are opposed to dealing with the Western Devils and we just gave them a big boost by going back on our word.
Will this eventually lead to a better agreement?
I tend to doubt that, but the world is somewhat unpredictable.
As unlikely as it seems, Iran has an economic mess that is leading to a degree of unrest that could lead to regime change.
That change could however be to a hard line government with no desire to deal with us.
Does the deal put us in danger?
Not directly, except of course that Iran may finance more terrorist groups.
It may increase risk in Israel which is obviously in a much more vulnerable place.
The fallout will happen and the only thing certain is that it helps Russia and China become more influential in the region as Iran reacts.
What Europe does will be decisive.
Tuesday, May 8, 2018
Iran Deal
The US is most likely going to withdraw from the Iran deal although there are a number of scenarios about what might happen.
There is no evidence that Iran has violated the agreement, it is simply a pretty typical reaction of the dontard to anything done by his predecessor.
Of course the deal has critics, it had them before it was ever signed, but of course it is a multi-national deal that has specific restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.
The deal didn't address some of the things that critics bring up and the gist of the criticism seems to be that we should re-impose sanctions until Iran does everything we would like them to do.
Negotiations between sovereign states is a tricky thing and requires give and take.
Not unlike business deals.
If a deal gives one side everything it wants, its not a negotiation, its an ultimatum.
The other point here is pretty simple. Why would you enter into a deal with a country that fails to honor it even when you honor your end?
Iran is currently not a friend of the US but it has been in the past and possibly could be again in the future.
We would like them to change certain behavior related to terrorism and its recognition of Israel's right to exist.
This deal however was designed to impact Iran's nuclear program, not those other issues.
What will be interesting is who then honors the re-imposed US sanctions and whether we retaliate against those who don't?
We will have made Iran a more sympathetic country at the very least, not sure that's what we want.
There is no evidence that Iran has violated the agreement, it is simply a pretty typical reaction of the dontard to anything done by his predecessor.
Of course the deal has critics, it had them before it was ever signed, but of course it is a multi-national deal that has specific restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.
The deal didn't address some of the things that critics bring up and the gist of the criticism seems to be that we should re-impose sanctions until Iran does everything we would like them to do.
Negotiations between sovereign states is a tricky thing and requires give and take.
Not unlike business deals.
If a deal gives one side everything it wants, its not a negotiation, its an ultimatum.
The other point here is pretty simple. Why would you enter into a deal with a country that fails to honor it even when you honor your end?
Iran is currently not a friend of the US but it has been in the past and possibly could be again in the future.
We would like them to change certain behavior related to terrorism and its recognition of Israel's right to exist.
This deal however was designed to impact Iran's nuclear program, not those other issues.
What will be interesting is who then honors the re-imposed US sanctions and whether we retaliate against those who don't?
We will have made Iran a more sympathetic country at the very least, not sure that's what we want.
Monday, May 7, 2018
Afordable Care Act
Don't hear much about the Affordable Care Act right now.
It is still under assault as a group of states have filed suit calling it unconstitutional, oddly because congress repealed the individual mandate which they argue invalidates the rest of the law.
I think this is more of a stunt but of course we would need to see if it progresses in the courts.
Generally the law continues and while a lot of it cold be improved, the odds of that are slim indeed.
So it will probably just continue in its current form until at least 2020 when w will see if a new administration wants to tackle it.
American all want affordable, available health care if they think about it.
Young people often don't think much about it until they start a family.
If of course you end up needing expensive treatment and have no coverage, it will bankrupt you or leave you in heavy debt.
We are one of the few, if not the only, industrialized countries that treats our citizens that way.
The cost of treatment and medicines is often obscene.
We could certainly benefit from a single payer system, but that seems pretty far off at this point
In addition to being expensive, it also manages to be extremely complex with coverages uncertain, as well as deductibles and co-pays.
Just something else our useless congress isn't going to address.
It is still under assault as a group of states have filed suit calling it unconstitutional, oddly because congress repealed the individual mandate which they argue invalidates the rest of the law.
I think this is more of a stunt but of course we would need to see if it progresses in the courts.
Generally the law continues and while a lot of it cold be improved, the odds of that are slim indeed.
So it will probably just continue in its current form until at least 2020 when w will see if a new administration wants to tackle it.
American all want affordable, available health care if they think about it.
Young people often don't think much about it until they start a family.
If of course you end up needing expensive treatment and have no coverage, it will bankrupt you or leave you in heavy debt.
We are one of the few, if not the only, industrialized countries that treats our citizens that way.
The cost of treatment and medicines is often obscene.
We could certainly benefit from a single payer system, but that seems pretty far off at this point
In addition to being expensive, it also manages to be extremely complex with coverages uncertain, as well as deductibles and co-pays.
Just something else our useless congress isn't going to address.
Sunday, May 6, 2018
Immigrant Caravan
Isn't it revealing how a rag tag caravan of mostly women and children have inspired so much fear in our dontard?
Its hard to imagine what he is so terrified of, but of course we know he has always been easily spooked.
We also know how he did everything he could to avoid military service when we still had the draft and has criticized people who actually served and suffered.
Whatever you think of our immigration laws and policies, people who show up on our border and request asylum are not actually doing anything wrong.
Possibly our system takes too long to adjudicate them and our system does odd things like separating families, but these are asylum seekers, who present themselves to authorities and request asylum.
They are not dangerous but our timid dontard has mobilized troops and is now talking about completely closing the border.
A few things are important to note.
Caravans like these represent not threat to anyone, except in some cases the actual participants who at times are preyed upon.
They aren't armed and they are generally families trying to escape violence in their home countries.
Very few of them are likely to actually get the asylum they seek so they are not going to swell the ranks of undocumented immigrants.
We have become less and less attractive as job opportunities have sprung up in countries like Mexico.
Even the dontard is now talking about allowing low skilled foreign laborers in to help the industries that rely on them.
Our immigration policy is being inspired by an ignorant coward, who seems terrified by his own shadow in many cases.
Sigh!
Its hard to imagine what he is so terrified of, but of course we know he has always been easily spooked.
We also know how he did everything he could to avoid military service when we still had the draft and has criticized people who actually served and suffered.
Whatever you think of our immigration laws and policies, people who show up on our border and request asylum are not actually doing anything wrong.
Possibly our system takes too long to adjudicate them and our system does odd things like separating families, but these are asylum seekers, who present themselves to authorities and request asylum.
They are not dangerous but our timid dontard has mobilized troops and is now talking about completely closing the border.
A few things are important to note.
Caravans like these represent not threat to anyone, except in some cases the actual participants who at times are preyed upon.
They aren't armed and they are generally families trying to escape violence in their home countries.
Very few of them are likely to actually get the asylum they seek so they are not going to swell the ranks of undocumented immigrants.
We have become less and less attractive as job opportunities have sprung up in countries like Mexico.
Even the dontard is now talking about allowing low skilled foreign laborers in to help the industries that rely on them.
Our immigration policy is being inspired by an ignorant coward, who seems terrified by his own shadow in many cases.
Sigh!
Saturday, May 5, 2018
Manufacturing
I read an article today that tries to make an argument that the US manufacturing sector is doing worse than it appears because some of the data is interpreted incorrectly.
Unfortunately, it really doesn't make a very convincing point and simply misstates some very obvious conclusions.
One of the problems with it is that it appears to be very partisan as opposed to an objective analysis and wants to take out the major manufacturing growth area after which manufacturing appears to be suffering.
It then blames this on trade and in all honesty, it makes the same point that pretty much every mainstream economist has been making, our old unskilled labor jobs can be done cheaper by robots or foreigners.
The growth is in new technologies and skilled labor.
I actually thought it was going to make a potentially valid point about the content of manufactured goods but it failed to get there.
To be successful in the future you need to develop the skills of the future.
Who is going to train workers to have these skills is the relevant question?
The economy that allowed people to simply show up and learn to do a simple process is gone or going. That sort of work is better done by robots who don't get bored and don't make human mistakes.
The requirement for the future is people who can think, learn and make decisions to keep the process flowing.
The jobs are actually better, even if there are less of them.
Unfortunately, it really doesn't make a very convincing point and simply misstates some very obvious conclusions.
One of the problems with it is that it appears to be very partisan as opposed to an objective analysis and wants to take out the major manufacturing growth area after which manufacturing appears to be suffering.
It then blames this on trade and in all honesty, it makes the same point that pretty much every mainstream economist has been making, our old unskilled labor jobs can be done cheaper by robots or foreigners.
The growth is in new technologies and skilled labor.
I actually thought it was going to make a potentially valid point about the content of manufactured goods but it failed to get there.
To be successful in the future you need to develop the skills of the future.
Who is going to train workers to have these skills is the relevant question?
The economy that allowed people to simply show up and learn to do a simple process is gone or going. That sort of work is better done by robots who don't get bored and don't make human mistakes.
The requirement for the future is people who can think, learn and make decisions to keep the process flowing.
The jobs are actually better, even if there are less of them.
Friday, May 4, 2018
Economic Impact
Is the economy doing better under the dontard, or was it so strong that his policies couldn't derail it?
It certainly still seems like the Obama economy with just a few differences, one of which is the tax cuts.
Hard to say if they have any significant impact on what we are seeing, and if you are looking at the statistics the trend lines are pretty consistent since the change in administrations.
With April employment numbers being close to predicted but other elements such as participation rate yo-yo ing a bit its hard to see any change in the direction. See following article.
Jobs
Still the economy hasn't crashed and the dontard now talks up the same Government reports he used to claim were fake.
In this article it talks about how the tariffs hurt small businesses, while the tax cuts and deregulation help.
small business
So maybe there is good and bad, at least as far as some elements of the economy.
What might take longer to impact us are the other changes to the tax laws, although there is no reason to believe that we are going to see any real trickle down impact. If we do, it would be nice, but it looks like the wealthy people are doing what they know best, staying wealthy.
The long term impacts of these policies is probably predictably negative, considering the impact of higher tariffs and the retaliation to them. This will simply make many items more expensive, like we are starting to see in gas prices.
Of course that's the result of a non-economic policy about the Iran deal and its those policies most likely to drive us into a recession at some point.
It certainly still seems like the Obama economy with just a few differences, one of which is the tax cuts.
Hard to say if they have any significant impact on what we are seeing, and if you are looking at the statistics the trend lines are pretty consistent since the change in administrations.
With April employment numbers being close to predicted but other elements such as participation rate yo-yo ing a bit its hard to see any change in the direction. See following article.
Jobs
Still the economy hasn't crashed and the dontard now talks up the same Government reports he used to claim were fake.
In this article it talks about how the tariffs hurt small businesses, while the tax cuts and deregulation help.
small business
So maybe there is good and bad, at least as far as some elements of the economy.
What might take longer to impact us are the other changes to the tax laws, although there is no reason to believe that we are going to see any real trickle down impact. If we do, it would be nice, but it looks like the wealthy people are doing what they know best, staying wealthy.
The long term impacts of these policies is probably predictably negative, considering the impact of higher tariffs and the retaliation to them. This will simply make many items more expensive, like we are starting to see in gas prices.
Of course that's the result of a non-economic policy about the Iran deal and its those policies most likely to drive us into a recession at some point.
Thursday, May 3, 2018
Lies and Pay Offs
Well not that its surprising, except maybe to people who refuse to believe reality, but we have found out that the medical letter used during the campaign was effectively a lie and that the money paid to Stormy Davis was ultimately from the dontard.
Not really surprising since the letter was incredibly non-professional and why would anyone else but the dontard lay out $130,000 to cover up an affair he had?
So what does it mean?
Since it is exactly what many people expected it simply confirms that the dontard continues to lie and fabricate stories for his true believers.
Being true believers, they will continue to believe what he wants them to, at least most of them.
The rest of us can simply shake our heads wonder how did we get here?
We have degenerated into people who don't trust authority and maybe this is the legacy of the 60s.
Of course those people now represent the authority we don't trust mostly.
Some of this goes back to the prostitution of our news media, which started with yellow journalism, had a brief period of glory in the middle of the last century but has now become nothing but a ratings game.
The internet has now enabled all sorts of stories to circulate, some real, some fake and some comic, but often the difference is hard to discern.
There is no clear voice of truth that people trust, we have different voices for different truths for different people.
Something is bound to change, but until it does, we pick the truth we like and consider all the others fake.
It doesn't work at all, but it what we got.
Not really surprising since the letter was incredibly non-professional and why would anyone else but the dontard lay out $130,000 to cover up an affair he had?
So what does it mean?
Since it is exactly what many people expected it simply confirms that the dontard continues to lie and fabricate stories for his true believers.
Being true believers, they will continue to believe what he wants them to, at least most of them.
The rest of us can simply shake our heads wonder how did we get here?
We have degenerated into people who don't trust authority and maybe this is the legacy of the 60s.
Of course those people now represent the authority we don't trust mostly.
Some of this goes back to the prostitution of our news media, which started with yellow journalism, had a brief period of glory in the middle of the last century but has now become nothing but a ratings game.
The internet has now enabled all sorts of stories to circulate, some real, some fake and some comic, but often the difference is hard to discern.
There is no clear voice of truth that people trust, we have different voices for different truths for different people.
Something is bound to change, but until it does, we pick the truth we like and consider all the others fake.
It doesn't work at all, but it what we got.
Wednesday, May 2, 2018
Politically Crazy?
We live in a wonderful country where you can say almost anything without worrying about legal consequences or censorship.
There is a price to pay on social media if that might bother you but outside of direct threats or slander, you can express any opinion you want.
It doesn't mean the opinions won't be crazy and the consequences imposed by other expressing their opinions may be unpleasant.
Recently a we saw prominent black entrepreneur express make a comment about how slavery was "a choice"?
That's no a politically incorrect statement its a crazy statement which seems to be part of his new persona.
Now I don't want to make too much out of a musician making statements that both get him attention and might therefore help his sales.
It remains to be seen the impact of that statement and some others that are controversial.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, except of course 400 years of slavery wasn't a choice, it was in fact a hard labor prison.
Slaves who made the choice to leave were captured, tortured, and killed.
The last one wasn't a good economic outcome so generally they were simply returned to servitude.
To say slavery was a choice isn't politically incorrect, its simply crazy.
There is a price to pay on social media if that might bother you but outside of direct threats or slander, you can express any opinion you want.
It doesn't mean the opinions won't be crazy and the consequences imposed by other expressing their opinions may be unpleasant.
Recently a we saw prominent black entrepreneur express make a comment about how slavery was "a choice"?
That's no a politically incorrect statement its a crazy statement which seems to be part of his new persona.
Now I don't want to make too much out of a musician making statements that both get him attention and might therefore help his sales.
It remains to be seen the impact of that statement and some others that are controversial.
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, except of course 400 years of slavery wasn't a choice, it was in fact a hard labor prison.
Slaves who made the choice to leave were captured, tortured, and killed.
The last one wasn't a good economic outcome so generally they were simply returned to servitude.
To say slavery was a choice isn't politically incorrect, its simply crazy.
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
News?
Sometimes what is purported to be news is not news at all.
Take yesterday's revelation that was made by the Israeli prime minister that he had thousands of documents that proved Iran had lied about having a nuclear program.
Of course the documents supposedly talk about project Ahmed and detail what Iran would have to have done to develop nuclear weapons.
This was about events that happened prior to the current agreement and I guess the point being made was that Iran had lied about its secret nuclear program.
Of course since the agreement makes them stop that development, not sure how much of a secret it really was.
Now of course another secret that was lied about was when the Israelis were developing nuclear weapons and told the world it wasn't.
Once again its not surprising that secret programs are in fact kept secret.
Is Iran violating the current agreement?
There doesn't seem to be any such evidence and we know that it is in Israel's best interests to keep Iran as weak as possible.
This may be a pre-arranged show that helps justify the dontard's pulling out of the deal.
Not at all sure the rest of the signees will go along with that and it's also uncertain what impact a unilateral withdrawal by the US has.
However, this news was not really anything surprising unless there is something much more damaging in the documents than what has been announced.
If it was there it would have been announced.
Take yesterday's revelation that was made by the Israeli prime minister that he had thousands of documents that proved Iran had lied about having a nuclear program.
Of course the documents supposedly talk about project Ahmed and detail what Iran would have to have done to develop nuclear weapons.
This was about events that happened prior to the current agreement and I guess the point being made was that Iran had lied about its secret nuclear program.
Of course since the agreement makes them stop that development, not sure how much of a secret it really was.
Now of course another secret that was lied about was when the Israelis were developing nuclear weapons and told the world it wasn't.
Once again its not surprising that secret programs are in fact kept secret.
Is Iran violating the current agreement?
There doesn't seem to be any such evidence and we know that it is in Israel's best interests to keep Iran as weak as possible.
This may be a pre-arranged show that helps justify the dontard's pulling out of the deal.
Not at all sure the rest of the signees will go along with that and it's also uncertain what impact a unilateral withdrawal by the US has.
However, this news was not really anything surprising unless there is something much more damaging in the documents than what has been announced.
If it was there it would have been announced.
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