Tuesday, July 14, 2020

The Future

What the future will hold is interesting to discuss but something that will just happen.  People have always liked to make predictions and many have come true.  Many have not.
 
A number of times noted people have predicted disaster.  Maybe the most notable was the theory by a cleric named Malthus who predicted that the exponential growth in population would lead to world famine and catastrophe.  It hasn't, at least so far, as science has greatly increased the amount of food we produce.
 
One can argue that if the population continues to grow as it has the prediction has only been delayed and it might be true.  It of course might not.  That's the problem with predictions.  The future is unknown and projecting the present forward is ignoring our capability to change.
 
Many predictors look at statistics and treat the population as predictable based on trends.  This is very valid in the short term but as time passes it becomes less so.  Individuals have the ability to change and sometimes quite rapidly.
 
If you had measured American attitudes on December 6, 1941 you would have predicted not entry into the World War.  We all know that changed the next day.
 
We respond to events when they happen.  Not always quickly or uniformly but people, no matter their political beliefs, are smart enough to adapt. 
 
What the future will be like is unpredictable but we will deal with challenges.  There really is no choice and we have always figured it out in the past.
 
You can predict we will fail, but I prefer to bet on humanity.
 
 

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