Thursday, May 27, 2021

Are Things Getting Better?

Comparisons are interesting especially when there are significant events.  For example last year we were in the midst of the pandemic and we had a lot of shut downs going on.

You see some comparisons from people showing the price of gas was less.  You don't see them compare the price or availability of things like Toilet paper.  They shouldn't.

For every bad comparison you can probably find as many good one such as number of unemployment claims.

All of them are distorted by the events that were happening.

Statistics are useful ways to measure whether what we are doing is being successful but they are also easily twisted.  Suppose you have a business and run a promotion to increase sales.  After the promotion you see sales did increase by a significant percentage.  Good. but what if in order to increase sales your incentives caused you to lose money?  Bad, but will they become repeat customers improving you bottom line for years to come?  Well you won't know for a while.

You are hoping for the last outcome but it takes a while to determine that.

That's why in many areas, such as the nation, statistics are deceptive and people rely much more on how they feel about things.  For the last few years, some Americans felt things were going well because of the rhetoric about how we were returning to older values.  Not sure we did any of that and not sure that is even desirable but millions felt good about it.

Many others felt the country was becoming more intolerant and racist and democracy was under attack.  Once again that might not be true but it led to a change in leadership.

Human personalities are different and if you feel change is a threat, you vote against it.  This isn't new and it takes a while to determine if change is good or bad.  One example is the Affordable Care Act.  Many felt it was a step towards socialism and used it to scare people.  Almost everyone is OK with it now although it is still under some attack.

Change takes getting used to.

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