Saturday, July 21, 2018

Economics

Has the US economy improved because of the policies of the current administration?

Its easy enough to argue both sides of that, we have seen continued increased economic growth and reduced unemployment, but we were seeing those before the election.

The reduced business taxes and regulation reductions are providing some stimulus, but we see the increased deficits and tariffs as headwinds to future growth.

If you live in the fantasy world of this administration, he has turned the economy around.  He is creating manufacturing and mining jobs and making America energy independent.

Of course the amount of truth in those statements is negligible but there is a little truth there.

His policies have started to hurt farmers as one of their biggest customers has made American products more expensive leading to lost sales.

His immigration policies have also led to labor shortages in certain seasonal industries.

We are seeing some increases in energy costs and those will have an impact.

If you simply look at trend lines since the great recession, the change between the two administrations is simply not dramatic.

Remember we had some pretty major stimulus, the tax cuts and the increased Government spending that should cause a growth spurt, and we see some impact, but of course that is really borrowed money since our deficit is so high.

We are seeing some interest rate increases which will slow growth a bit and while I doubt the congress can do anything at all short term, we see the administration trying to pass another tax break.

There is certainly no economic miracle and the long term impact seems negative, but short term there is some increased growth.

If you believe that the growth will become permanent and propel the economy, we may be able to pay for these cuts.

If not, well we have a growing debt problem to deal with.

If the interest rates go high enough it will be a disastrous issue.

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