Simplify

 When you study an event it often depends on whether you have preconceptions about what you are going to find.  A lot of evidence is unreliable and often subject to interpretation.  If you have a goal of distrusting the official version, you will probably find evidence to support that view.

Of course we should question official accounts but publishing or pushing half baked theories just leads to conspiracy theories and general distrust.

Take the various accounts we have seen about drone attacks over the years.  The attacks are based on intelligence gathered painstakingly before they are executed.  While possible the odds of an actual mistake are fairly low.  However since reporting that the Government account is correct doesn't get you noticed, we see reports of mistakes that killed innocent victims.  Of course there never has been a victim who wasn't considered innocent by some people.  Interviewing people on the ground or only examining the collateral damage is simply guesswork.  

There were two articles recently where journalists examined the available visual evidence of the drone strike in Kabul to determine the events.  Now much of that evidence came from the Government and it shows the car being hit and exploding.  The reports support certain conclusions that might be suggested by the evidence.  I guarantee that other conclusion can be drawn since after the fact analysis generally supports your original position.

This is similar to the sort of election fraud analysis we have seen.  Without actual evidence they argues that statistically the results are inconsistent.  Ignoring the fact that those analyses are rife with inaccuracies why would we rely on statistical evidence when we have real and conclusive actual data?  The actual votes have been recounted multiple times and support the certified results.  

Sometimes things are what they are.  There is a philosophical rule called Occam's razor which states that the simplest explanation is the most likely. In other words if you are investigating hoof prints in the Western United States, they were more likely made by horses than Zebras.

Conspiracy theories ignore the razor and create scenarios of more and more complexity until you have a tangled mess indeed.  

Time for a shave to reveal the face of truth.