I was watching a talk show yesterday where the guest talked about due process for accused sexual harassers. A women on the panel said "Are we not supposed to believe the women?"
Well the answer is that of course each person can believe or not believe them, but the accusations have to be proven to either the civil or criminal levels, if the man disputes the account.
I realize we live in a society where men often abused their power over women.
It is also true that this wasn't always the case and not all men are guilty, not even all the men accused.
Am I saying that some of the women are lying?
Probably, or remembering the situation in a way that isn't exactly what happened.
People are generally self focused and often they think things are directed at them which actually aren't.
This is simply human nature since we all occupy the center of our universe we think everything around us concerns us.
It doesn't.
I read a story by a woman who claimed to be harassed many years ago while working on a movie set with a famous actor. It wasn't physical harassment and it was fairly easy to see how all the things she perceived could easily have been simple banter.
Yes, you have to be there, but there's the rub.
An allegation of sexual harassment isn't a finding of guilt, it is an allegation. Even if the facts are exactly as remembered, it might not rise to that level.
If we simply accept accusations as proof of guilt what does that mean for our society?
Certainly we should make it clear about what acceptable behavior is but everyone is entitled to their day in court.
Its only fair.
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Friday, March 30, 2018
Young Guns
Well, we can now say that Hope has left the White House.
Of course that refers to Hope Hicks who seems to have played a pretty important role there despite her young age.
Being young is hardly an impediment to doing something good.
I saw a list of how young many of our founding fathers were when they wrote the constitution and being young wasn't an impediment.
It may account for some of the idealism we see in it.
Some people have attacked the students speaking out against gun violence as being young. Pretty sure not getting shot is important at any age.
I'm not aware that anyone is attacking responsible gun ownership, although the NRA likes to say it is under attack.
Most supporters of gun rights ignore the fact that the second amendment starts by saying a "well regulated Militia". The right to bear arms seems pretty clearly related to this, being in the same amendment and all and I wonder if all gun owners are ready to be called into action as a "well regulated" militia?
Of course the end of the amendment says the right shall not be infringed and that has led to our current situation.
If we adopt the "not be infringed" it is hard to accept any restrictions as appropriate. It is hard to believe that the founding fathers expected it to be so broadly interpreted, they didn't want to arm slaves or most women.
Should a dangerous mentally ill person be allowed to have a gun?
If "not be infringed" is interpreted in a common sense way, meaning it means unreasonable infringement, than we should be able to agree on what is reasonable.
Since we have a number of Supreme Court cases already that accepted reasonable gun restrictions, we seem to be past that hurdle.
Lets try to use some common sense.
Of course that refers to Hope Hicks who seems to have played a pretty important role there despite her young age.
Being young is hardly an impediment to doing something good.
I saw a list of how young many of our founding fathers were when they wrote the constitution and being young wasn't an impediment.
It may account for some of the idealism we see in it.
Some people have attacked the students speaking out against gun violence as being young. Pretty sure not getting shot is important at any age.
I'm not aware that anyone is attacking responsible gun ownership, although the NRA likes to say it is under attack.
Most supporters of gun rights ignore the fact that the second amendment starts by saying a "well regulated Militia". The right to bear arms seems pretty clearly related to this, being in the same amendment and all and I wonder if all gun owners are ready to be called into action as a "well regulated" militia?
Of course the end of the amendment says the right shall not be infringed and that has led to our current situation.
If we adopt the "not be infringed" it is hard to accept any restrictions as appropriate. It is hard to believe that the founding fathers expected it to be so broadly interpreted, they didn't want to arm slaves or most women.
Should a dangerous mentally ill person be allowed to have a gun?
If "not be infringed" is interpreted in a common sense way, meaning it means unreasonable infringement, than we should be able to agree on what is reasonable.
Since we have a number of Supreme Court cases already that accepted reasonable gun restrictions, we seem to be past that hurdle.
Lets try to use some common sense.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Facts Used to be Facts
Ever since I can remember there have been people who I'll refer to as "roll your eyes" people.
By this I mean people who would express opinions about things that were just so wrong that all you could really do was roll your eyes.
It could be in almost any topic, but the views were so clearly contradicted by reality that it was hard to argue with them.
For example, if someone maintained that aliens were routinely grabbing people and examining them undetected. You can't actually prove it isn't happening, but there is so much evidence that it isn't happening or couldn't happen undetected that no reasonable person would believe it.
Now, sometimes the person holding these views was otherwise an intelligent person, but for whatever reason he allowed this unreasonable idea to take hold.
It used to be the sort of stuff people would hear on late night talk radio or read in some tabloids and if you ignored all the rest of the world it could almost sound credible.
Over the years as we got an almost unlimited number of cable channels, we have seen these roll your eyes views move into primetime. In fact we have a whole cable news channel that seems to specialize in this stuff.
It gets ratings and I'm pretty sure most of the people saying these outrageous things actually know better but their audience doesn't.
We have another phenomena that seems sort of new, where people think they can hold any opinion they want despite scientific evidence contradicting them. I mean people who maintain the earth is flat when there is clear proof it is round.
Its sort of a relativism that I don't remember and maybe it is something with the schools.
There are wrong ideas, at least in the world of empirical science.
The problem is that these views have become more mainstream and now we have a "roll your eyes" administration. It actually believes some of these outrageous things and doesn't seem to be learning.
All we can do is figure out why we seem to be getting dumber as a nation and see what we can do about it. Or we can just "roll our eyes".
By this I mean people who would express opinions about things that were just so wrong that all you could really do was roll your eyes.
It could be in almost any topic, but the views were so clearly contradicted by reality that it was hard to argue with them.
For example, if someone maintained that aliens were routinely grabbing people and examining them undetected. You can't actually prove it isn't happening, but there is so much evidence that it isn't happening or couldn't happen undetected that no reasonable person would believe it.
Now, sometimes the person holding these views was otherwise an intelligent person, but for whatever reason he allowed this unreasonable idea to take hold.
It used to be the sort of stuff people would hear on late night talk radio or read in some tabloids and if you ignored all the rest of the world it could almost sound credible.
Over the years as we got an almost unlimited number of cable channels, we have seen these roll your eyes views move into primetime. In fact we have a whole cable news channel that seems to specialize in this stuff.
It gets ratings and I'm pretty sure most of the people saying these outrageous things actually know better but their audience doesn't.
We have another phenomena that seems sort of new, where people think they can hold any opinion they want despite scientific evidence contradicting them. I mean people who maintain the earth is flat when there is clear proof it is round.
Its sort of a relativism that I don't remember and maybe it is something with the schools.
There are wrong ideas, at least in the world of empirical science.
The problem is that these views have become more mainstream and now we have a "roll your eyes" administration. It actually believes some of these outrageous things and doesn't seem to be learning.
All we can do is figure out why we seem to be getting dumber as a nation and see what we can do about it. Or we can just "roll our eyes".
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Election Energy
There are still seven months before the mid-term elections and that is a lot of time in the world of politics.
One of the keys to victory in the last presidential election was the dislike many Americans had for both candidates. Of course the next election isn't a presidential one, but the actual president is still disliked and he isn't able to offset that with his opponent.
The republicans will try to act like this is still a personality contest and bring up targets like Hillary or Nancy Pelosi, but that well may not be deep enough to get much water anymore.
The people energized by that are already clearly voting a certain way and since they aren't actually on ballots, except in Pelosi's district you can't energize people to vote against them.
Of course neither is they're guy but he is continuing to be in the news every day and not generally in a favorable way.
We also are seeing some cracks in the economy as interest rates rise and the deficit increases.
Those tax cuts aren't changing a lot of lives and those miners and factory workers are pretty much exactly the same.
The group energized right now would indicate a big change in congress after the election, but seven months is a long time.
Time will tell.
One of the keys to victory in the last presidential election was the dislike many Americans had for both candidates. Of course the next election isn't a presidential one, but the actual president is still disliked and he isn't able to offset that with his opponent.
The republicans will try to act like this is still a personality contest and bring up targets like Hillary or Nancy Pelosi, but that well may not be deep enough to get much water anymore.
The people energized by that are already clearly voting a certain way and since they aren't actually on ballots, except in Pelosi's district you can't energize people to vote against them.
Of course neither is they're guy but he is continuing to be in the news every day and not generally in a favorable way.
We also are seeing some cracks in the economy as interest rates rise and the deficit increases.
Those tax cuts aren't changing a lot of lives and those miners and factory workers are pretty much exactly the same.
The group energized right now would indicate a big change in congress after the election, but seven months is a long time.
Time will tell.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Party Invites
One of the things certain republican candidates are doing is trying to walk a thin line between supporting the president and claiming he doesn't represent republican values.
In other words they want to eat their cake and have it too.
They want to get the votes of his supporters, but then (wink, wink) tell the voters who are repulsed by him that they can still trust republicans to do what's right for the country.
There is no real evidence that they will control the dontard, because he does represent what the republican party has become.
One of the criticisms you used to hear was that the two major parties were essentially the same on most issues with a few variations.
However, we now see a republican party that has aligned itself with the homophobic, misogynistic, racist, hypocrites of this country and some of their voters are repulsed.
To some extent republicans have been running on a fear platform, convincing voters that threats to their way of life were all around them and they had to defend it.
These threats were represented by groups such as immigrants or Muslims or any of those groups that were trying to live the American dream.
That message resonated enough, combined with the negative image that was painted of the democratic candidate to let a representative of this hateful message get elected, barely.
All of a sudden the policies started to reflect the idiocy of these views in a way that was chaotic and distasteful.
The party didn't change him, he changed the party.
Time to see who is staying soon.
In other words they want to eat their cake and have it too.
They want to get the votes of his supporters, but then (wink, wink) tell the voters who are repulsed by him that they can still trust republicans to do what's right for the country.
There is no real evidence that they will control the dontard, because he does represent what the republican party has become.
One of the criticisms you used to hear was that the two major parties were essentially the same on most issues with a few variations.
However, we now see a republican party that has aligned itself with the homophobic, misogynistic, racist, hypocrites of this country and some of their voters are repulsed.
To some extent republicans have been running on a fear platform, convincing voters that threats to their way of life were all around them and they had to defend it.
These threats were represented by groups such as immigrants or Muslims or any of those groups that were trying to live the American dream.
That message resonated enough, combined with the negative image that was painted of the democratic candidate to let a representative of this hateful message get elected, barely.
All of a sudden the policies started to reflect the idiocy of these views in a way that was chaotic and distasteful.
The party didn't change him, he changed the party.
Time to see who is staying soon.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Stormy
Not sure what the consequences will be, but is there anyone out there who doesn't believe the Stormy Daniels account?
She was entirely credible and if the story wasn't true why did they give her $130,000?
I suppose the fact that it was consensual is relevant but it certainly goes to the character of the man who is our president.
The point is that it was clear all along that he never cared about any of his marriage vows and we have him on tape talking about the advantages of being a celebrity.
So this is no surprise and neither are any of the other stories.
I'm sure some of his supporters will cheer this type of behavior on, after all its mostly an boys network where women are considered sort of like action figures.
Of course they also get to vote as do those hypocritical evangelicals who talk about sinners going to hell, but so do hypocrites.
The defenders of this behavior will argue they do it because of the policies he represents as a republican.
Spend more, tax less and increase the deficit.
Arrest lots of innocent people, execute drug dealers and break up hard working immigrant families.
Impose tariffs, attack our allies and support ruthless dictators.
Guess its a new agenda?
She was entirely credible and if the story wasn't true why did they give her $130,000?
I suppose the fact that it was consensual is relevant but it certainly goes to the character of the man who is our president.
The point is that it was clear all along that he never cared about any of his marriage vows and we have him on tape talking about the advantages of being a celebrity.
So this is no surprise and neither are any of the other stories.
I'm sure some of his supporters will cheer this type of behavior on, after all its mostly an boys network where women are considered sort of like action figures.
Of course they also get to vote as do those hypocritical evangelicals who talk about sinners going to hell, but so do hypocrites.
The defenders of this behavior will argue they do it because of the policies he represents as a republican.
Spend more, tax less and increase the deficit.
Arrest lots of innocent people, execute drug dealers and break up hard working immigrant families.
Impose tariffs, attack our allies and support ruthless dictators.
Guess its a new agenda?
Sunday, March 25, 2018
Next Election
We will see if in the next election the movements get out the vote.
Its actually hard to say what republicans have going for them at this point.
If you are n favor of smarter gun regulations you should vote democratic.
If you want to promote the rights of women to earn equal pay and not be harassed in the workplace you should vote democratic (yes some democrats were also harassers)
If you want to promote equality for people who have different sexual orientations you should vote democratic.
If you want to treat immigrant fairly and with respect, while of course enforcing reasonable immigration laws you should vote democratic.
If you want to make sure all Americans have access to affordable health care, vote democratic.
If you want to protect the environment and slow the impact of climate change, vote democratic.
If you want trade policies that really do put the American people first while offering our industries a fair chance to compete, vote democratic.
If you want to protect and improve our public schools instead of trying to privatize them, vote democratic.
If you want to see our drug laws reflect the world we live in and not the tactics of Asian dictators, vote democratic.
If you want to control foreign attacks on our system and protect our democracy, vote democratic.
The list goes on.
Republicans are generally on the wrong side of history for these issues while promoting an agenda (not actions) promoting smaller government and family values.
Look at what they actually do and decide.
Its actually hard to say what republicans have going for them at this point.
If you are n favor of smarter gun regulations you should vote democratic.
If you want to promote the rights of women to earn equal pay and not be harassed in the workplace you should vote democratic (yes some democrats were also harassers)
If you want to promote equality for people who have different sexual orientations you should vote democratic.
If you want to treat immigrant fairly and with respect, while of course enforcing reasonable immigration laws you should vote democratic.
If you want to make sure all Americans have access to affordable health care, vote democratic.
If you want to protect the environment and slow the impact of climate change, vote democratic.
If you want trade policies that really do put the American people first while offering our industries a fair chance to compete, vote democratic.
If you want to protect and improve our public schools instead of trying to privatize them, vote democratic.
If you want to see our drug laws reflect the world we live in and not the tactics of Asian dictators, vote democratic.
If you want to control foreign attacks on our system and protect our democracy, vote democratic.
The list goes on.
Republicans are generally on the wrong side of history for these issues while promoting an agenda (not actions) promoting smaller government and family values.
Look at what they actually do and decide.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Free Trade
Investors know that a trade war is going to hurt many more companies than it will ever help.
If it helps any at all.
The reaction this week on wall street demonstrates the initial reaction, which is as most things are, an overreaction, but still its simply not a good thing.
America needs to have open markets so it can continue to be a leader in cutting edge technology and innovation.
Having any trade war is bad, but a trade war with a country that has the most consumers in the world is particularly bad.
We are still the largest economy in the world but as China and the rest of Asia continue to develop, they have massive numbers of consumers to buy our products.
Will they?
Well if we can be competitive and have access to those markets.
To the extent we are prevented from selling in those countries we obviously aren't going to be an option for those consumers.
Can we compete?
It becomes our job to figure that out but if we proceed down a path of trade barriers and withdrawing from trade agreements, we won't be able to.
Free enterprise and American ingenuity need a chance to excel, not a protective barrier hat ultimately confines them.
If it helps any at all.
The reaction this week on wall street demonstrates the initial reaction, which is as most things are, an overreaction, but still its simply not a good thing.
America needs to have open markets so it can continue to be a leader in cutting edge technology and innovation.
Having any trade war is bad, but a trade war with a country that has the most consumers in the world is particularly bad.
We are still the largest economy in the world but as China and the rest of Asia continue to develop, they have massive numbers of consumers to buy our products.
Will they?
Well if we can be competitive and have access to those markets.
To the extent we are prevented from selling in those countries we obviously aren't going to be an option for those consumers.
Can we compete?
It becomes our job to figure that out but if we proceed down a path of trade barriers and withdrawing from trade agreements, we won't be able to.
Free enterprise and American ingenuity need a chance to excel, not a protective barrier hat ultimately confines them.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Tariffs are Taxes
Well the dontard has the ability, at least for now, to impose tariffs depending I guess on his latest mood.
Yesterday he attacked China and targeted areas that we are just not likely to compete in, therefore doing one of two things.
Either a lot of technology prices will have price increases or the manufacturers will find another low price country to shift to.
Now the exact list of the items the tariffs apply to isn't published yet but the idea that somehow we are suddenly going to find people willing to do the type of work involved for competitive wages is pretty unlikely.
Manufacturers are unlikely to even try.
So the most likely outcome is that whatever tariffs are collected will simply increase some prices.
One area on the list that might help a bit is tariffs on solar panels which is an industry that has a growth future, although not favored by the dontard.
China has imposed a few retaliatory tariffs and the market has dropped significantly and looks to go down some more.
Trade wars lead to less jobs overall as they increase prices and reduce demand.
Naturally as in everything there are some winners but more losers. The proponents will point to the winners, if any in this case, and cite it as a success, ignoring the losers for sake of their argument.
As bad as the recent tax law was, it would in the short term produce some jobs as prices would in fact decline a bit increasing some demand. However the problem there is that the up side for demand isn't as great as the down side as we are near full employment.
The problem that actually exists in this country is that in the old manufacturing heartland, high paying jobs have been replaced with lower paying jobs. Trying to compete with China on the low end isn't going to do anything for that.
Yesterday he attacked China and targeted areas that we are just not likely to compete in, therefore doing one of two things.
Either a lot of technology prices will have price increases or the manufacturers will find another low price country to shift to.
Now the exact list of the items the tariffs apply to isn't published yet but the idea that somehow we are suddenly going to find people willing to do the type of work involved for competitive wages is pretty unlikely.
Manufacturers are unlikely to even try.
So the most likely outcome is that whatever tariffs are collected will simply increase some prices.
One area on the list that might help a bit is tariffs on solar panels which is an industry that has a growth future, although not favored by the dontard.
China has imposed a few retaliatory tariffs and the market has dropped significantly and looks to go down some more.
Trade wars lead to less jobs overall as they increase prices and reduce demand.
Naturally as in everything there are some winners but more losers. The proponents will point to the winners, if any in this case, and cite it as a success, ignoring the losers for sake of their argument.
As bad as the recent tax law was, it would in the short term produce some jobs as prices would in fact decline a bit increasing some demand. However the problem there is that the up side for demand isn't as great as the down side as we are near full employment.
The problem that actually exists in this country is that in the old manufacturing heartland, high paying jobs have been replaced with lower paying jobs. Trying to compete with China on the low end isn't going to do anything for that.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Staying on Facebook?
It seems like a lot of people are upset with the fact that Facebook allowed a company to access and use a lot of users personal data.
This was done by a firm that was hired to help a presidential campaign and the problem is that they used one users consent to harvest the data of many non-consenters from what I can tell.
First, you shouldn't consent to letting someone access your personal information. A lot of apps ask for these permissions as you do meaningless surveys and profiles, which want two things form you.
First to keep you on their site as they show you ad after ad.
Second to collect usable and sellable data about you.
The second one has been going on forever, at least since advertising companies have existed, but it has gotten more and more sophisticated as so much more is on-line.
There is a movement to delete Facebook accounts and maybe it will catch on, but I suspect not, unless something is readily available to take its place.
We did have some on-line communities before Facebook and they had some degree of success.
In fact they seemed to get popular and burn out relatively quickly and when I first heard of Facebook I sort of expected the same behavior, but I was wrong, it lasted.
It clearly provided a better experience than say "My Space" or AOL forums, and I think it simply was so very easy and as opposed to the earlier apps, it was your real friends and relatives as opposed to a bunch of somewhat nerdy strangers.
The previous sites let you join forums or communities that consisted of people who may have shared an interest with you but who you didn't know.
Sometimes you became friendly with that group and I actually went to a gathering of a group I used to participate in quite a while ago.
However on Facebook you see people you already know and you start to form groups based on pre-existing connections.
It was this sense of instant belonging that helped it a lot, in my opinion, and the connections with family and friends is going to be hard to replace, so I suspect it will recover, at least until an alternative comes along that does it as well or better.
I'm planning to stay.
This was done by a firm that was hired to help a presidential campaign and the problem is that they used one users consent to harvest the data of many non-consenters from what I can tell.
First, you shouldn't consent to letting someone access your personal information. A lot of apps ask for these permissions as you do meaningless surveys and profiles, which want two things form you.
First to keep you on their site as they show you ad after ad.
Second to collect usable and sellable data about you.
The second one has been going on forever, at least since advertising companies have existed, but it has gotten more and more sophisticated as so much more is on-line.
There is a movement to delete Facebook accounts and maybe it will catch on, but I suspect not, unless something is readily available to take its place.
We did have some on-line communities before Facebook and they had some degree of success.
In fact they seemed to get popular and burn out relatively quickly and when I first heard of Facebook I sort of expected the same behavior, but I was wrong, it lasted.
It clearly provided a better experience than say "My Space" or AOL forums, and I think it simply was so very easy and as opposed to the earlier apps, it was your real friends and relatives as opposed to a bunch of somewhat nerdy strangers.
The previous sites let you join forums or communities that consisted of people who may have shared an interest with you but who you didn't know.
Sometimes you became friendly with that group and I actually went to a gathering of a group I used to participate in quite a while ago.
However on Facebook you see people you already know and you start to form groups based on pre-existing connections.
It was this sense of instant belonging that helped it a lot, in my opinion, and the connections with family and friends is going to be hard to replace, so I suspect it will recover, at least until an alternative comes along that does it as well or better.
I'm planning to stay.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Teen Age Angst
Well another school shooting in Maryland yesterday where the results while tragic pale in comparison to some of the others.
The shooter, a 17 year old boy died and the two people he shot will hopefully recover.
Many will feel that the fact that the violence was contained quickly and the shooter eliminated either by his own hand or that of the resource officer who confronted him shows that having armed defenders available is a way to contain gun violence in schools.
To some extent, although at this point we don't know if the shooter intended a rampage or just targeted the girl who he may have been angry at.
Still to call it a success when one teenager is dead and two others injured, even when the one who is dead was the perpetrator of a crime is sort of a pyrrhic victory.
One dead is better than 17 dead, obviously, but the easy access to guns is the reason he is dead.
Teenage boys getting upset at girls isn't a new thing, and if this turns out to be a jilted Romeo scenario where he was going to make sure it was him or no one, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.
However, what should have perhaps been a loud confrontation or silent moping turned deadly because of a gun.
Without the gun I imagine a depressed teen-age boy who would recover, an unharmed teen-age girl and a school that wasn't traumatized.
I don't know if he got the gun legally or not, all I know is that he got it and we had a tragedy that we wouldn't have had otherwise.
The shooter, a 17 year old boy died and the two people he shot will hopefully recover.
Many will feel that the fact that the violence was contained quickly and the shooter eliminated either by his own hand or that of the resource officer who confronted him shows that having armed defenders available is a way to contain gun violence in schools.
To some extent, although at this point we don't know if the shooter intended a rampage or just targeted the girl who he may have been angry at.
Still to call it a success when one teenager is dead and two others injured, even when the one who is dead was the perpetrator of a crime is sort of a pyrrhic victory.
One dead is better than 17 dead, obviously, but the easy access to guns is the reason he is dead.
Teenage boys getting upset at girls isn't a new thing, and if this turns out to be a jilted Romeo scenario where he was going to make sure it was him or no one, it certainly wouldn't be the first time.
However, what should have perhaps been a loud confrontation or silent moping turned deadly because of a gun.
Without the gun I imagine a depressed teen-age boy who would recover, an unharmed teen-age girl and a school that wasn't traumatized.
I don't know if he got the gun legally or not, all I know is that he got it and we had a tragedy that we wouldn't have had otherwise.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Free Speech
I saw an article about a high school newspaper in California that ran cartoons depicting the dontard as a Nazi and the police as KKK members. Now this apparently sparked some sort of outrage which sounds like something that it outrageous itself.
Who cares what gets printed is these high school magazines outside of the high school and local community? Apparently in today's world everyone does.
Now this was reported by the propaganda group over at Murdoch's channel and I wonder how many times they got outraged by cartoons of the prior president? I suspect not very often, which is what they should do since all of this is protected by the first amendment of the constitution.
If the expectation now is that you can only send you child to a high school that allows no controversy or free expression, well, I have to say I'm sorry for that child.
Now I grew up at a time when protesting the Vietnam war was an ongoing activity and there were lively debates and cartoons everywhere.
Not sure anyone turned out the worse for it, it was an exercise in freedom.
We also had the protests related to the civil rights movement which also had very lively discussions and unfortunately some pretty lively violence also.
Whatever your opinion is of the current president you have the right to express it. If you see an opinion you don't like, you can respond or ignore it.
Free speech is a dangerous thing but it also one of the most positive things we have.
If you spend a lot of time defending the 2nd Amendment, maybe you should think about how the first gives you the right to do that and appreciate it instead of trying to suppress it.
Who cares what gets printed is these high school magazines outside of the high school and local community? Apparently in today's world everyone does.
Now this was reported by the propaganda group over at Murdoch's channel and I wonder how many times they got outraged by cartoons of the prior president? I suspect not very often, which is what they should do since all of this is protected by the first amendment of the constitution.
If the expectation now is that you can only send you child to a high school that allows no controversy or free expression, well, I have to say I'm sorry for that child.
Now I grew up at a time when protesting the Vietnam war was an ongoing activity and there were lively debates and cartoons everywhere.
Not sure anyone turned out the worse for it, it was an exercise in freedom.
We also had the protests related to the civil rights movement which also had very lively discussions and unfortunately some pretty lively violence also.
Whatever your opinion is of the current president you have the right to express it. If you see an opinion you don't like, you can respond or ignore it.
Free speech is a dangerous thing but it also one of the most positive things we have.
If you spend a lot of time defending the 2nd Amendment, maybe you should think about how the first gives you the right to do that and appreciate it instead of trying to suppress it.
Monday, March 19, 2018
Do We Believe in Magic?
Latest news about the republican agenda is that they want to pass more tax cuts.
The last ones have at least some popularity, not as much as they would have liked, but you put a few extra dollars in someone's paycheck, it seems like a good thing.
Of course it wasn't very much and it wasn't permanent and it seems that they know they don't have much chance of passing a new one, since it would once again favor wealthy investors although since it won't pass they may add a provision to make the temporary cuts permanent.
Why would they do this? Well to get the democrats to vote against it so they can campaign that they are the ones who are keeping it from happening.
It assumes a certain lack of interest by the voters and based on past performance it might be somewhat successful.
After all enough of them believed the things the dontard promised even though his submitted budgets slash all the programs he promised to leave alone.
Sadly, this political maneuvering isn't just a republican thing, it happens in both major parties, where appearances outweigh reality.
There are a lot of tough realities in Washington that can't be fixed because of the fact that fixing them will cause a political backlash.
If we want to reduce spending we have to reduce the areas where we spend the most, and these consist of defense and popular programs like social security and medicare.
The alternative is to raise taxes to pay for them, which is not likely to happen anytime soon.
Do Americans want to address these problems?
Not really although they would like them fixed magically.
So they vote for people who make promises that are simply unrealistic for the long term.
Somehow we can spend and spend and rack up debts without consequences, instead of facing reality.
Its an Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Clause type of world.
The last ones have at least some popularity, not as much as they would have liked, but you put a few extra dollars in someone's paycheck, it seems like a good thing.
Of course it wasn't very much and it wasn't permanent and it seems that they know they don't have much chance of passing a new one, since it would once again favor wealthy investors although since it won't pass they may add a provision to make the temporary cuts permanent.
Why would they do this? Well to get the democrats to vote against it so they can campaign that they are the ones who are keeping it from happening.
It assumes a certain lack of interest by the voters and based on past performance it might be somewhat successful.
After all enough of them believed the things the dontard promised even though his submitted budgets slash all the programs he promised to leave alone.
Sadly, this political maneuvering isn't just a republican thing, it happens in both major parties, where appearances outweigh reality.
There are a lot of tough realities in Washington that can't be fixed because of the fact that fixing them will cause a political backlash.
If we want to reduce spending we have to reduce the areas where we spend the most, and these consist of defense and popular programs like social security and medicare.
The alternative is to raise taxes to pay for them, which is not likely to happen anytime soon.
Do Americans want to address these problems?
Not really although they would like them fixed magically.
So they vote for people who make promises that are simply unrealistic for the long term.
Somehow we can spend and spend and rack up debts without consequences, instead of facing reality.
Its an Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Clause type of world.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Snake Oil
Most Americans are decent people which is a good thing except at times it blinds them to non decent people trying to take advantage of them.
It was an all too familiar theme where the snake oil salesman cold make a pretty good living selling worthless concoctions to people will to accept his claims because he made them feel comfortable.
That is the essence of the con, make people feel connected to you and you have your foot in the door.
Now take the dontard.
He has never been honest, loyal or trustworthy.
He has cheated on all his wives including the present one.
He has declared bankruptcy multiple times, of course sheltering himself but hurting his investors.
He associated himself with a number of scam businesses including a "university" that bilked people out of their life savings.
His knowledge of business, as revealed in his books, is the same knowledge any salesman has, get the highest price you can for what you are peddling.
Word is that the Apprentice show really bailed him out financially.
Now he managed to convince many struggling Americans that he was their champion who was going to get them good paying jobs and open up those rusted factories.
His knowledge of these people is primarily based on TV shows which depict a certain type of lifestyle and of course his fondness for one particular network.
He is however showing his true colors and he is starting to lose the decent people who can only be fooled so long.
Time isn't on his side, the snake oil salesman had to get out of town before the townspeople got sick.
It was an all too familiar theme where the snake oil salesman cold make a pretty good living selling worthless concoctions to people will to accept his claims because he made them feel comfortable.
That is the essence of the con, make people feel connected to you and you have your foot in the door.
Now take the dontard.
He has never been honest, loyal or trustworthy.
He has cheated on all his wives including the present one.
He has declared bankruptcy multiple times, of course sheltering himself but hurting his investors.
He associated himself with a number of scam businesses including a "university" that bilked people out of their life savings.
His knowledge of business, as revealed in his books, is the same knowledge any salesman has, get the highest price you can for what you are peddling.
Word is that the Apprentice show really bailed him out financially.
Now he managed to convince many struggling Americans that he was their champion who was going to get them good paying jobs and open up those rusted factories.
His knowledge of these people is primarily based on TV shows which depict a certain type of lifestyle and of course his fondness for one particular network.
He is however showing his true colors and he is starting to lose the decent people who can only be fooled so long.
Time isn't on his side, the snake oil salesman had to get out of town before the townspeople got sick.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Political Scandals?
Well hopefully he has legal recourse but the firing of the deputy director of the FBI 2 days before his pension eligibility is pretty despicable, especially since the charges didn't include anything that hinted at illegal behavior.
The civil service in this country is not supposed to be about politics, although of course people who work for the Government have individual views. They are required to do their jobs despite any political beliefs and generally that is one of the strengths of our system.
We see accusations about a bias and the so called deep state but lets be clear, I've never seen any legitimate examples of such a bias although I have seen certain impartial decisions second guessed.
In the normal course of events decision will be made that one side or the other may not like. It doesn't make it political, it just makes it a decision.
Take the "scandal" surrounding the IRS looking into conservative applications for tax exempt status a few years ago. One thing about trying to detect "scams" is that they tend to use keywords that are popular at a particular point in time. Now its almost definitely true that many of the people trying to get tax exempt status were and are political by their nature and to weed these out you will identify certain attributes. In the link below it turns out that both conservative and liberal groups got extra scrutiny, as they probably should have based on such usage.
IRS scandal
The thing about unfounded accusations, they are often wrong, although the accusations tend to be remembered and the facts not so much.
The people making false allegations know this which is why is remains such a popular tactic.
They know the public's attention span is limited, so first impressions are sometimes lasting ones.
Crying wolf does of course eventually have its limits. At least that's how the story goes.
The civil service in this country is not supposed to be about politics, although of course people who work for the Government have individual views. They are required to do their jobs despite any political beliefs and generally that is one of the strengths of our system.
We see accusations about a bias and the so called deep state but lets be clear, I've never seen any legitimate examples of such a bias although I have seen certain impartial decisions second guessed.
In the normal course of events decision will be made that one side or the other may not like. It doesn't make it political, it just makes it a decision.
Take the "scandal" surrounding the IRS looking into conservative applications for tax exempt status a few years ago. One thing about trying to detect "scams" is that they tend to use keywords that are popular at a particular point in time. Now its almost definitely true that many of the people trying to get tax exempt status were and are political by their nature and to weed these out you will identify certain attributes. In the link below it turns out that both conservative and liberal groups got extra scrutiny, as they probably should have based on such usage.
IRS scandal
The thing about unfounded accusations, they are often wrong, although the accusations tend to be remembered and the facts not so much.
The people making false allegations know this which is why is remains such a popular tactic.
They know the public's attention span is limited, so first impressions are sometimes lasting ones.
Crying wolf does of course eventually have its limits. At least that's how the story goes.
Friday, March 16, 2018
Jobs
More shake ups at the White House, ho hum.
Its hardly news anymore.
This is the most dysfunctional administration I can remember, but once again, that's old news by now.
In a speech designed to get a republican elected the dotard touted how he is bringing steel and coal back. Good luck with that, the tariffs wont do it, the increased costs will be simply passed along.
Free trade has always been more a republican thing than a democratic one.
Yes on a national level some democratic politicians went along with them, but they were historically and currently more of a thing big business wanted and therefore what republicans wanted.
Democrats sided with the unions and working class trying to keep jobs in this country.
That "Look for the Union Label Campaign" was really a democratic and union thing when it meant something.
Republicans have attacked unions, convincing a certain number of workers that unions are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
The result of that is that business doesn't have to include workers in any decisions they make that impact those workers.
Certainly some unions had issues related to pension and associations, but they were the only group that actually represented workers.
Unions tend to support democratic candidates because they realize who has real worker economic interests at heart.
Republicans like to wave flags and talk about non economic issues while empowering companies to export jobs and cut wages.
The outcome of this is that while jobs are plentiful generally, they aren't the good paying jobs that working class Americans depended on.
Those jobs are now gone mostly, and they ain't coming back.
Its hardly news anymore.
This is the most dysfunctional administration I can remember, but once again, that's old news by now.
In a speech designed to get a republican elected the dotard touted how he is bringing steel and coal back. Good luck with that, the tariffs wont do it, the increased costs will be simply passed along.
Free trade has always been more a republican thing than a democratic one.
Yes on a national level some democratic politicians went along with them, but they were historically and currently more of a thing big business wanted and therefore what republicans wanted.
Democrats sided with the unions and working class trying to keep jobs in this country.
That "Look for the Union Label Campaign" was really a democratic and union thing when it meant something.
Republicans have attacked unions, convincing a certain number of workers that unions are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
The result of that is that business doesn't have to include workers in any decisions they make that impact those workers.
Certainly some unions had issues related to pension and associations, but they were the only group that actually represented workers.
Unions tend to support democratic candidates because they realize who has real worker economic interests at heart.
Republicans like to wave flags and talk about non economic issues while empowering companies to export jobs and cut wages.
The outcome of this is that while jobs are plentiful generally, they aren't the good paying jobs that working class Americans depended on.
Those jobs are now gone mostly, and they ain't coming back.
Thursday, March 15, 2018
March Madness
The NCAA's men's basketball tournament really kicks off today and its full saturation until Sunday when only 16 teams will remain.
We will get to see and root for teams that really aren't equipped to compete with the major basketball colleges although with only 5 players you can see an exceptional performance by a small college player that sometimes pays off.
Just making the tournament is a great accomplishment for these schools and these programs and will help them recruit in the future.
Of course taking a bit of a break to focus on this March madness instead of the madness we see every day in the White House is a welcome break.
The latest madness is the probably successful effort to roll back the Dodd-Frank financial rules.
Was it really that long ago that we let the big financial institutions almost through us into a depression because of their unbridled greed?
They aren't going to be less greedy which is why we need some adult supervision.
I'm not saying Dodd-Frank was the best law ever passed, but I do know that we all saw the results of letting them go unregulated.
It wasn't pretty and having an oversight board to identify potential risks doesn't seem like an overly onerous burden.
Of course it has also been successful since banks are in fact making money without pushing us into a recession or depression.
I guess they don't want to ask permission before they take that big leap. Unfortunately when they crash, we all get to pay.
We will get to see and root for teams that really aren't equipped to compete with the major basketball colleges although with only 5 players you can see an exceptional performance by a small college player that sometimes pays off.
Just making the tournament is a great accomplishment for these schools and these programs and will help them recruit in the future.
Of course taking a bit of a break to focus on this March madness instead of the madness we see every day in the White House is a welcome break.
The latest madness is the probably successful effort to roll back the Dodd-Frank financial rules.
Was it really that long ago that we let the big financial institutions almost through us into a depression because of their unbridled greed?
They aren't going to be less greedy which is why we need some adult supervision.
I'm not saying Dodd-Frank was the best law ever passed, but I do know that we all saw the results of letting them go unregulated.
It wasn't pretty and having an oversight board to identify potential risks doesn't seem like an overly onerous burden.
Of course it has also been successful since banks are in fact making money without pushing us into a recession or depression.
I guess they don't want to ask permission before they take that big leap. Unfortunately when they crash, we all get to pay.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
A Close One
It looks like the election in Pennsylvania for the vacated house seat is going to be won by the Democratic candidate.
Its still pretty close but at this point its looking likely.
Couple of points to be made here.
The democrat was a good candidate who ran on the strength of his message and not just on an anti-Trump platform.
His opponent didn't seem to have much going for him, and he still ran neck and neck.
Good candidates can win tough elections, and the message has to be one that resonates locally.
There are some issues that are good nationally but maybe not so good locally.
Its OK for the Democratic party to be diverse, but diverse is a two way street.
We need people who represent the working class people of middle America, the heartland who share the main principle of the Democratic party.
All people are deserving of respect and are entitled to have views.
Its still pretty close but at this point its looking likely.
Couple of points to be made here.
The democrat was a good candidate who ran on the strength of his message and not just on an anti-Trump platform.
His opponent didn't seem to have much going for him, and he still ran neck and neck.
Good candidates can win tough elections, and the message has to be one that resonates locally.
There are some issues that are good nationally but maybe not so good locally.
Its OK for the Democratic party to be diverse, but diverse is a two way street.
We need people who represent the working class people of middle America, the heartland who share the main principle of the Democratic party.
All people are deserving of respect and are entitled to have views.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
So No Collusion Just Bad Judgement?
You have to give Nunes credit, he doesn't mind letting everyone know he is a partisan with no pretense at all.
The draft document said that there is no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians while contradicting an official U.S. intelligence community assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin favored President Trump during the campaign.
The draft document said that there is no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians while contradicting an official U.S. intelligence community assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin favored President Trump during the campaign.
"We found no evidence of collusion," Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) told reporters on Monday. "We found perhaps some bad judgment, inappropriate meetings, inappropriate judgment in taking meetings - but only Tom Clancy could take this series of inadvertent contacts, meetings, whatever, and weave that into some sort of a spy thriller that could go out there.
So those scheduled meetings were inadvertent? Odd how that happens. Guess you can't expect people to be there just because they said they would.
There's little doubt that the Russians tried to manipulate the election and that certain members of the campaign knew about it, maybe even the dotard himself. Considering all his other bad traits, its pretty believable that he wouldn't think there was anything wrong in this.
Not sure it matters much at this point but it is probably a more relevant inquiry than the silly e-mail thing that keeps dragging on about Hillary.
Saying these people exercise bad judgment is sort of a redundant situation. When did they exercise good judgment?
I guess the people who voted for him might want to think about it, but if you have bought into the argument that he is the victim, you ignore all of this anyway.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Fools Rush In
If you never moved your clocks back last fall, the world has now caught up to you.
We used to say that even stopped clocks were right twice a day, but in the digital age they either blink or go dark so it seems like the accuracy of broken clocks is way down.
It seems though that Americans are getting scammed in ever greater numbers, even if you ignore politics.
First, strangers have not picked you out to give you a great opportunity or enter you into a lottery which you have mysteriously won.
We could use a little healthy skepticism.
When I get a call from someone who tells me not to hang up, I hang up.
I gather that is the appropriate thing to do based on the warning.
I remember at one time being a bit intrigued by the three card monte scam artists I used to pass on the way to work years ago, they seemed easy to beat.
They weren't, it was and is a total scam, but it was a pretty successful one as the shill seemed to win so easily and who couldn't use an extra $20 or so?
My skepticism saved me a few dollars despite the show they put on to convince me I could win.
Now a days, some of the scams are more interested in your information than your $20.
Of course our scamming politicians are just interested in your vote.
Procrastination can be a good thing if you take time to get the facts.
We used to say that even stopped clocks were right twice a day, but in the digital age they either blink or go dark so it seems like the accuracy of broken clocks is way down.
It seems though that Americans are getting scammed in ever greater numbers, even if you ignore politics.
First, strangers have not picked you out to give you a great opportunity or enter you into a lottery which you have mysteriously won.
We could use a little healthy skepticism.
When I get a call from someone who tells me not to hang up, I hang up.
I gather that is the appropriate thing to do based on the warning.
I remember at one time being a bit intrigued by the three card monte scam artists I used to pass on the way to work years ago, they seemed easy to beat.
They weren't, it was and is a total scam, but it was a pretty successful one as the shill seemed to win so easily and who couldn't use an extra $20 or so?
My skepticism saved me a few dollars despite the show they put on to convince me I could win.
Now a days, some of the scams are more interested in your information than your $20.
Of course our scamming politicians are just interested in your vote.
Procrastination can be a good thing if you take time to get the facts.
Sunday, March 11, 2018
Lying or Delusional
Whenever the dotard gives speech the fact checkers point out all the lies, but is it a lie if you actually believe what you're saying?
I'm pretty convinced that he really believes most of the things he says (although he also lies a lot) because his megalomania convinces him that his version of the facts are true.
Of course he gets some ammunition from the silly news he watches on cable. but when he says that he won the popular vote despite all evidence to the contrary he actually believes it.
Unfortunately he is the only delusional person around.
Too many people are willing to ignore reality for their own version.
Politics don't change facts, and even if Al Gore is championing climate change, it doesn't make it political.
We live in a world where things that would have been absolute miracles are now commonplace with airplanes, instant communications, space exploration, computers everywhere, etc. etc.
This was because of science.
People who use the results of these wonderful inventions then question the scientific validity of scientific experiments.
Its OK to have some skepticism, but to simply ignore or deny repeatable experiments that prove a theory is, well insane.
Similarly we have people who actually believe the mass shootings were all staged as part of the gun control agenda. Really? If the entire Government and Media was working together they would have already taken all the guns.
No one, or at least almost no one, wants to take everyone's guns, they want to use common sense safeguards to prevent these massacres that keep happening.
They are very real and denying them and harassing the survivors is dastardly.
I'm pretty convinced that he really believes most of the things he says (although he also lies a lot) because his megalomania convinces him that his version of the facts are true.
Of course he gets some ammunition from the silly news he watches on cable. but when he says that he won the popular vote despite all evidence to the contrary he actually believes it.
Unfortunately he is the only delusional person around.
Too many people are willing to ignore reality for their own version.
Politics don't change facts, and even if Al Gore is championing climate change, it doesn't make it political.
We live in a world where things that would have been absolute miracles are now commonplace with airplanes, instant communications, space exploration, computers everywhere, etc. etc.
This was because of science.
People who use the results of these wonderful inventions then question the scientific validity of scientific experiments.
Its OK to have some skepticism, but to simply ignore or deny repeatable experiments that prove a theory is, well insane.
Similarly we have people who actually believe the mass shootings were all staged as part of the gun control agenda. Really? If the entire Government and Media was working together they would have already taken all the guns.
No one, or at least almost no one, wants to take everyone's guns, they want to use common sense safeguards to prevent these massacres that keep happening.
They are very real and denying them and harassing the survivors is dastardly.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Jobs and Economy
There was a pretty good jobs report yesterday.
The news was encouraging to the stock markets as we saw a nice rally in all three major indices.
How much of this is due to new policies since we changed administrations? Hard to say.
We have of course had fairly consistent job growth since the recession so this continues that trend.
Monthly Job Data
Still the numbers are pretty good so maybe some of it is related to the tax bonus industry got.
Construction is a good sign.
We of course haven't seen any impact from the recent tariffs and we had a higher trade deficit which may be related to increased need for materials.
Not sure how much of this is changing the situation in the rust belt or mining communities that suffered the most from our changing economy, doubt it is a big impact.
Still it was a good report.
The U.S. economy added 313,000 jobs in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 200,000.
Wages, meanwhile, grew less than expected, rising 2.6 percent on an annualized basis. Stronger-than-expected wage growth helped spark a market correction in the previous month.
Construction jobs led the way, with 61,000 new positions, followed by retail and professional and business services (50,000 apiece), manufacturing (31,000) and financial activities (28,000). Health care added 19,000 while mining saw 9,000 new jobs.
The news was encouraging to the stock markets as we saw a nice rally in all three major indices.
How much of this is due to new policies since we changed administrations? Hard to say.
We have of course had fairly consistent job growth since the recession so this continues that trend.
Monthly Job Data
Still the numbers are pretty good so maybe some of it is related to the tax bonus industry got.
Construction is a good sign.
We of course haven't seen any impact from the recent tariffs and we had a higher trade deficit which may be related to increased need for materials.
Not sure how much of this is changing the situation in the rust belt or mining communities that suffered the most from our changing economy, doubt it is a big impact.
Still it was a good report.
Friday, March 9, 2018
Talking is Good?
With the surprise announcement that we will have a high level meeting with North Korea between the heads of state, we seem to be making progress.
Discussions are better than simply tweeting back and forth and possibly some real progress will be made.
It should be noted that getting the American President to meet with this dictator on equal terms is a great prestige builder for him but if it eases the chance of a nuclear war, so be it.
It should be noted that while we pay a lot of attention to it, North Korea is an economically distressed dictatorship that has managed to scrape together something of a nuclear program.
Still its a promising sign.
We also have the watered down steel and aluminum tariffs that exclude Canada and Mexico now.
The end result of these is undetermined, but its unlikely to end well.
Hopefully saner minds will prevail and its likely he is doing it to appeal to a part of his base that has been hurt by loss of these jobs.
The greatest growth opportunities for business is in the developing world and pursuing those opportunities involves a favorable trade environment.
Of course we also need to be competitive in what we offer, but creating trade barriers or withdrawing form trade agreements will hurt those opportunities.
Yes, it allows trade in both directions, so it creates winners and losers.
Of course cheaper prices are good for everyone ultimately.
Discussions are better than simply tweeting back and forth and possibly some real progress will be made.
It should be noted that getting the American President to meet with this dictator on equal terms is a great prestige builder for him but if it eases the chance of a nuclear war, so be it.
It should be noted that while we pay a lot of attention to it, North Korea is an economically distressed dictatorship that has managed to scrape together something of a nuclear program.
Still its a promising sign.
We also have the watered down steel and aluminum tariffs that exclude Canada and Mexico now.
The end result of these is undetermined, but its unlikely to end well.
Hopefully saner minds will prevail and its likely he is doing it to appeal to a part of his base that has been hurt by loss of these jobs.
The greatest growth opportunities for business is in the developing world and pursuing those opportunities involves a favorable trade environment.
Of course we also need to be competitive in what we offer, but creating trade barriers or withdrawing form trade agreements will hurt those opportunities.
Yes, it allows trade in both directions, so it creates winners and losers.
Of course cheaper prices are good for everyone ultimately.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Voting
Maybe one good thing may come out of the current divisiveness in our society and politics, more voter participation.
In the Texas primaries this week we saw a couple of things, but maybe the most impressive were the record turnout in both parties.
The worst thing is the apathy we see so much of. It has allowed fringe candidates more opportunity to impact results but also allows the political machines to have undue influence.
Those two things may seem contradictory but most of the time apathy allows the primaries to be dominated by the party regulars.
The exception to that is when a fringe candidate energizes a base and defeats them.
In neither case is the public well represented.
Participation is the only way to get our Government to reflect our shared goals and ideals, as least our majority ones.
We are all concerned about the same things and our Government should be focused on the right ones, not these hot button issues that appease a strong lobby.
Voting is the cure to a lot of things wrong with this country.
Its something we all can do.
In the Texas primaries this week we saw a couple of things, but maybe the most impressive were the record turnout in both parties.
The worst thing is the apathy we see so much of. It has allowed fringe candidates more opportunity to impact results but also allows the political machines to have undue influence.
Those two things may seem contradictory but most of the time apathy allows the primaries to be dominated by the party regulars.
The exception to that is when a fringe candidate energizes a base and defeats them.
In neither case is the public well represented.
Participation is the only way to get our Government to reflect our shared goals and ideals, as least our majority ones.
We are all concerned about the same things and our Government should be focused on the right ones, not these hot button issues that appease a strong lobby.
Voting is the cure to a lot of things wrong with this country.
Its something we all can do.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Our Democracy in Trouble
One of the things about politics is that it is really a popularity contest in a democratic society.
This is one of the reasons ancient democracies tended to fail.
Promises made to the masses were more persuasive than smart choices.
For example, common sense would tell you that a rich country like ours shouldn't be running the deficit it is, especially when the economy is doing well.
However getting elected on a platform of austerity is pretty unlikely so we have tax cuts and increased spending.
This has always been the way and ultimately in the ancient world, bad leadership voted in by the mob eventually led to situations requiring a strong man to resolve.
So watching our current situation makes you wonder is our democracy doomed?
Probably, just when is the question?
We are starting to see the trappings of megalomania at the top as large rallies and desired military parades become the norm.
Of course the dotard is not talented or liked enough to pull off a coup.
However, he may have set a trend.
It isn't likely to happen very soon, but as Government becomes more inept and corrupt and the economy starts to crumble, we may very well be clamoring for a savior.
It is certainly possible.
This is one of the reasons ancient democracies tended to fail.
Promises made to the masses were more persuasive than smart choices.
For example, common sense would tell you that a rich country like ours shouldn't be running the deficit it is, especially when the economy is doing well.
However getting elected on a platform of austerity is pretty unlikely so we have tax cuts and increased spending.
This has always been the way and ultimately in the ancient world, bad leadership voted in by the mob eventually led to situations requiring a strong man to resolve.
So watching our current situation makes you wonder is our democracy doomed?
Probably, just when is the question?
We are starting to see the trappings of megalomania at the top as large rallies and desired military parades become the norm.
Of course the dotard is not talented or liked enough to pull off a coup.
However, he may have set a trend.
It isn't likely to happen very soon, but as Government becomes more inept and corrupt and the economy starts to crumble, we may very well be clamoring for a savior.
It is certainly possible.
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Odds and Ends
Chance for negotiations with North Korea but I have my doubt that anything will develop out of that considering the fundamental impediments. Still talking is better than shooting.
The Florida senate has passed a gun law raising age limits for some purchases. Its better than nothing.
Still waiting to see how we impose tariffs, if we even do as there seems to be some wavering on them.
Talks continue on NAFTA but not sure much progress is being made.
The fact that people who work for or used to work for the dotard's campaign say inconsistent and crazy things is sort of normal now.
How many indictments has the special prosecutor issued? Can you imagine the outrage from Fox news if this was Obama?
So far no indictments for Hillary, and I predict there won't be any.
Stock market has retreated from its highs but seems to be in the midst of making up its mind. Could go either way now.
I feel pretty confident we will have a Trump recession and it could be a really bad one. Just not sure when.
We have an inexperience driver on a major highway. The outcome is pretty certain, just the timing is the question.
The Florida senate has passed a gun law raising age limits for some purchases. Its better than nothing.
Still waiting to see how we impose tariffs, if we even do as there seems to be some wavering on them.
Talks continue on NAFTA but not sure much progress is being made.
The fact that people who work for or used to work for the dotard's campaign say inconsistent and crazy things is sort of normal now.
How many indictments has the special prosecutor issued? Can you imagine the outrage from Fox news if this was Obama?
So far no indictments for Hillary, and I predict there won't be any.
Stock market has retreated from its highs but seems to be in the midst of making up its mind. Could go either way now.
I feel pretty confident we will have a Trump recession and it could be a really bad one. Just not sure when.
We have an inexperience driver on a major highway. The outcome is pretty certain, just the timing is the question.
Monday, March 5, 2018
In Like a Lion
There's an old saying that if March come in like a lion it goes out like a lamb or vice versa.
We have certainly had an interesting start to March both weather wise and politics wise.
We see a possible trade war erupting, designed to appeal to a disaffected group of voters who unfortunately won't benefit from it.
One of the things that American voters, at least a fairly large number of them want, is something different.
They blame Government for the changes in our society that we have seen in the last 50 years, even though Government is not the cause and certainly not the cure.
In fact most of those changes are good changes, although of course that can be debated in some cases.
Increase in globalization results in cheaper prices which benefits the most.
Yes it results in some economic disruption, change always does and if you are on the short end you're not going to like it.
It isn't however something that can be fixed. Economics grinds on and when you ignore the trends you are ultimately the one who suffers.
It seems like we have decided to start fighting a losing battle, and the consequences aren't going to be good for the country as economic activity will slow and jobs will be lost.
This lion may be a weather lamb by the end of the month, but the politics won't be any time soon.
We have certainly had an interesting start to March both weather wise and politics wise.
We see a possible trade war erupting, designed to appeal to a disaffected group of voters who unfortunately won't benefit from it.
One of the things that American voters, at least a fairly large number of them want, is something different.
They blame Government for the changes in our society that we have seen in the last 50 years, even though Government is not the cause and certainly not the cure.
In fact most of those changes are good changes, although of course that can be debated in some cases.
Increase in globalization results in cheaper prices which benefits the most.
Yes it results in some economic disruption, change always does and if you are on the short end you're not going to like it.
It isn't however something that can be fixed. Economics grinds on and when you ignore the trends you are ultimately the one who suffers.
It seems like we have decided to start fighting a losing battle, and the consequences aren't going to be good for the country as economic activity will slow and jobs will be lost.
This lion may be a weather lamb by the end of the month, but the politics won't be any time soon.
Sunday, March 4, 2018
Sunday Thoghts
We see the dotard saying that since we have in many cases a negative balance sheet when we trade, stopping trade would be to our advantage.
Of course it would lead to a tremendous economic downturn and much higher prices accompanied with shortages of things we want.
We don't trade with someone for no reason at all. We do it because it makes economic sense.
Take a commodity like steel. Cheaper steel leads to cheaper products that use steel.
Supply and demand tells us that if the cost of supply goes down, demand increases. This after all is a Republican tenet, encapsulated in the tax bill.
If you stop trading prices go up. Less economic activity will result so it will lead to less jobs.
The way to change trade deficits, if that is even a goal, is to produce your product cheaper.
With the expansion of cheap natural gas and less dependence on foreign oil we see that what was once a huge trade deficit in energy has pretty much reversed itself.
Of course, where the main component of cost is labor we could only compete by reducing labor costs.
One might argue that immigration is a good way to do that.
It might make sense to have a logical economic policy that we followed instead of trying to fulfill empty slogans.
Guess we are going to do the latter instead.
Of course it would lead to a tremendous economic downturn and much higher prices accompanied with shortages of things we want.
We don't trade with someone for no reason at all. We do it because it makes economic sense.
Take a commodity like steel. Cheaper steel leads to cheaper products that use steel.
Supply and demand tells us that if the cost of supply goes down, demand increases. This after all is a Republican tenet, encapsulated in the tax bill.
If you stop trading prices go up. Less economic activity will result so it will lead to less jobs.
The way to change trade deficits, if that is even a goal, is to produce your product cheaper.
With the expansion of cheap natural gas and less dependence on foreign oil we see that what was once a huge trade deficit in energy has pretty much reversed itself.
Of course, where the main component of cost is labor we could only compete by reducing labor costs.
One might argue that immigration is a good way to do that.
It might make sense to have a logical economic policy that we followed instead of trying to fulfill empty slogans.
Guess we are going to do the latter instead.
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Simple Economics
I can't remember a time when the people trying to run the Government were as disorganized and seemingly clueless as now.
Of course the dotard is the worst of the lot.
He seems to have an image of an America where what's good for US Steel is good for the country and Coal is King.
His simplistic views of how things work are so inept that we seem likely doomed to a real crisis, either a war or a recession or possibly both.
Let's hope that we somehow can avoid those things, but it seems likely that we are doing damage now that isn't going to be easily corrected.
Take his view on trade.
Government don't trade with each other, companies do. Now Governments, via things like trade deals and tariffs set the playing field but once its set the companies need to adjust.
Goods are sold where there are consumers, and they need to be as competitive as they can be for what they offer. Now, if for example Steel can be produced cheaper elsewhere and used here to produce consumer goods, everyone pays less.
If you increase the cost of steel everyone pays more.
Simple math.
Now possibly making more steel here might create some jobs.
Selling less items because prices reduce demand will eliminate more jobs.
Imported steel is about 30% of the steel used in this country and possibly increasing the cost of imports will shift some of that to domestic production.
Consumers will get to pay for that.
This might be minor but if the issue escalates to other goods we export it might become major.
One might wonder why the steel manufacturers couldn't figure out how to be more competitive without Government protection?
Hmmm?
Of course the dotard is the worst of the lot.
He seems to have an image of an America where what's good for US Steel is good for the country and Coal is King.
His simplistic views of how things work are so inept that we seem likely doomed to a real crisis, either a war or a recession or possibly both.
Let's hope that we somehow can avoid those things, but it seems likely that we are doing damage now that isn't going to be easily corrected.
Take his view on trade.
Government don't trade with each other, companies do. Now Governments, via things like trade deals and tariffs set the playing field but once its set the companies need to adjust.
Goods are sold where there are consumers, and they need to be as competitive as they can be for what they offer. Now, if for example Steel can be produced cheaper elsewhere and used here to produce consumer goods, everyone pays less.
If you increase the cost of steel everyone pays more.
Simple math.
Now possibly making more steel here might create some jobs.
Selling less items because prices reduce demand will eliminate more jobs.
Imported steel is about 30% of the steel used in this country and possibly increasing the cost of imports will shift some of that to domestic production.
Consumers will get to pay for that.
This might be minor but if the issue escalates to other goods we export it might become major.
One might wonder why the steel manufacturers couldn't figure out how to be more competitive without Government protection?
Hmmm?
Friday, March 2, 2018
Tariffs we get to Pay
If you believe in free trade you simply think all tariffs are bad.
They increase costs and represent a tax on the consumer.
Now some would argue that they can be used strategically to protect a business which is starting up from foreign competition. The logic is a start up company needs time to become competitive so it is in the nation's long term interests to give it a chance.
In such a case of course the tariffs would be temporary, only needed until they could compete equally.
Of course the tariffs announced yesterday are more politically motivated than economically motivated and are clearly problematic.
I guess to some extent it will result in some increase in steel and aluminum production in this country, assuming that the increases make our inefficient production competitive.
But it will drive up the price of consumer products that use the materials, either because the tariff increases the cost or we produce it inefficiently here.
Further, it is very likely other countries will react and impose tariffs on our goods, hurting our production and exports.
It is likely to introduce some inflationary pressure into our economy as the dotard's price increases get reflected in end products.
I haven't seen a single favorable economic analysis of these tariffs and it is possible that congress may very well try to reverse them. Its probably not going to happen, instead we will see retaliation, more price increases, more inflation and ultimately less jobs.
What you get when you elect a dotard.
They increase costs and represent a tax on the consumer.
Now some would argue that they can be used strategically to protect a business which is starting up from foreign competition. The logic is a start up company needs time to become competitive so it is in the nation's long term interests to give it a chance.
In such a case of course the tariffs would be temporary, only needed until they could compete equally.
Of course the tariffs announced yesterday are more politically motivated than economically motivated and are clearly problematic.
I guess to some extent it will result in some increase in steel and aluminum production in this country, assuming that the increases make our inefficient production competitive.
But it will drive up the price of consumer products that use the materials, either because the tariff increases the cost or we produce it inefficiently here.
Further, it is very likely other countries will react and impose tariffs on our goods, hurting our production and exports.
It is likely to introduce some inflationary pressure into our economy as the dotard's price increases get reflected in end products.
I haven't seen a single favorable economic analysis of these tariffs and it is possible that congress may very well try to reverse them. Its probably not going to happen, instead we will see retaliation, more price increases, more inflation and ultimately less jobs.
What you get when you elect a dotard.
Thursday, March 1, 2018
Keep On
We saw something yesterday that many felt was inevitable but it was still a bit unexpected, the dotard turning on his base.
Of course he did a similar thing a while back when he sided with the Democrats on a spending bill but yesterday's comments about gun control are more significant.
He may soon tweet that it was all fake news or he may not, time will tell.
He seems to have sensed that the outrage over the last mass shooting has reached a level that can't be ignored.
His party's representatives are too beholden to the NRA contributions to go along willingly, but with mid-terms getting closer and outrage continuing, maybe getting re-elected this time will require some sort of action.
Of course being a dotard, his solution would violate due process, and you can't do it in reverse.
You can of course change certain requirements for gun ownership in the first place and ban guns from certain areas.
These are discussion that need to take place and maybe some will now.
However for those who won't consider common sense solutions, the pressure needs to remain high.
Taking money from the NRA is very close to taking lives because you fail to do what needs to be done.
This is simply negligence of elected representatives who need to be identified and held accountable.
Its time.
Of course he did a similar thing a while back when he sided with the Democrats on a spending bill but yesterday's comments about gun control are more significant.
He may soon tweet that it was all fake news or he may not, time will tell.
He seems to have sensed that the outrage over the last mass shooting has reached a level that can't be ignored.
His party's representatives are too beholden to the NRA contributions to go along willingly, but with mid-terms getting closer and outrage continuing, maybe getting re-elected this time will require some sort of action.
Of course being a dotard, his solution would violate due process, and you can't do it in reverse.
You can of course change certain requirements for gun ownership in the first place and ban guns from certain areas.
These are discussion that need to take place and maybe some will now.
However for those who won't consider common sense solutions, the pressure needs to remain high.
Taking money from the NRA is very close to taking lives because you fail to do what needs to be done.
This is simply negligence of elected representatives who need to be identified and held accountable.
Its time.
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