When you consider why the last two presdential elections were somewhat missed by the pollsters I believe they fail to take into account the Trump effect.
He claimed frequently last time that he was bringing people to the party that otherwise would not be there. Now there are two types that are somewhat ignored by pollsters. First the actual white supremacists' who often are not easily reachable by pollsters. These are not shy trump supporters, more like hard to reach trump supporters. The addition of a black women vice presidential candidate energized this group to show up and vote.
Another group that get miscounted are what might be described as shy trump supporters. These are people, generally men, who are afraid to say publicly who they support. Possibly they live with a more progressive wife who sees trump for the misogynist pig that he is. He can agree with her in public (including polls) but we do have secret ballots.
What is undetermined is whether these voters will support regular republicans if Trump isn't a factor.
In 2018 when he waan't on the ballot many of them didn't care enough to vote.
Of course as we saw this year, unlike 2016 he brings out plenty of voters who detest him as well.
Still I think 2018 is a better measure of the results if we don't have the trump factor.
Will republicans continue to espouse his beliefs is a big question.
That remains to be seen.
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