Regulations

One of the things that really does need to be looked at is how many regulations we have vs how many we need.

Having dealt with them my whole life, it is clear that they tend to get worse over time.

There is a simple reason for this, human ingenuity.

Once you create a regulation that prohibits or punishes profitable behavior, the people who would profit study it to determine how to avoid it.  Let take the war on drugs.

Illegal drugs are tremendously profitable and many of them are also quite illegal.  Of course some just try not to get caught, or if caught have less on them then any thresholds established for greater punishment.

A more ingenious group has another approach, creating new drugs not covered by the existing regulations.  This allows them to sell drugs with similar or better effects but no risk until the regulations are expanded to cover the new drugs.

You can see how this works in things like sports where every year rules committees have to tweak rules for games that haven't generally changed except that certain rules get exploited or clarifications are required because of flaws that were discovered.

That's the problem with regulations, the people who write them are people.

Take things like traffic rules.  I for various reasons often drive late at night.  At some intersections there are restrictions like no turn on red which make sense when the street is busy but are silly when no other cars are anywhere near.  Now at many of these intersections the risk of an accident is non-existent at certain times, but the people who make these rules don't care, or don't care enough to review all the intersections and adjust the signs.  It could also get expensive since whatever times they post is likely to be wrong, one way or the other.

There is though a clear tendency to continue to revise regulations clarifying the regulations already issued.  Having been through a number of reform attempts, I know that the pro and anti regulation forces can't agree so we generally are left with a worse situation than we had before.

Of course simple saying things like eliminate two regulations for every new one issued only results in longer regulations.

People are clever that way.

Saturday Ramblings

The dotard is so predictably saying that the cold weather in the northeast disproves climate change, duh!

Guess the increased hurricane activity and record heat in the summer was just weather.

He is putting conditions on letting people who effectively lived their whole life here since childhood stay.  Why is this even an issue?

Republicans are somehow convinced that Americans are going see the extra $5 or so from the tax measure and be all enthused.  Of course whatever that might be, it will probably be eclipsed by the increase in health care cost they are creating.

I can't decide if they actually believe the stuff they say?  It's often so idiotic but then you have to consider the speakers.

Of course businesses are seeing the big reduction they got and I'm sure their executives and stockholders are appreciative.

Taking care of the 5% isn't the smartest political move, of course we have a lot of people who aren't paying attention.

Our system doesn't achieve one person one vote is any significant way.  If you live in a small state you have a bigger voice.

One of the things that bothers a lot of "evangelicals" is how many young people are more socially liberal than they are.  They consider this a bad thing but you can't make people think the way you do.

They find things in the old testament that justify denying some people the right to love who they want.  This judging others instead of fixing your own faults pretty much ignores the life of Jesus.

The New Year is about to start and maybe the best resolution would be to let others live their lives the way they see fit and focus on being a better person?

Why not?

Please Provide Incriminating Evidence

After a number of years of unsuccessful investigations, it seems like the newest tactic is simply to say that the DOJ, the FBI, the DNC and anyone else they can think of is withholding the "real" evidence that would prove guilt.

Of course one way to conduct an investigation is to make up your mind first and look for anything that would confirm it.

Having made up you mind, the evidence has to exist, and failure to turn it over means you are engaged in a cover up and a deep state conspiracy to hide the "real: facts.

Then you find two people, who work in the FBI who express political views to each other on their phones which aren't favorable to the dotard.

Never mind that they, like all Americans have the right to these views and the right to express them privately, it is clear proof of bias and should have been turned over.

Well the fact that they, like a majority of Americans, felt the dotard was unqualified to be President is an indication of an opinion not bad behavior.

Not to the conspiracy monkeys in the House!

They do everything based on pure partisan motives so of course so does everyone else.

Never mind that most civil servants actually do their jobs no matter what their personal beliefs are.

Everybody is like us, everybody is biased and everybody lets partisan beliefs cloud their judgment.

The ongoing efforts to prove a crime happened when clearly none did is a tremendous waste of taxpayer money but it keeps the base interested.

It will continue as long as they can milk it and try to distract the public from the real investigation about the election.

One where there has already been a criminal indictment.

Tick Tock on Entitlements

Having passed a bill that will undoubtedly raise the deficit significantly we are soon going to here the Republicans calling for entitlement reductions.

Now with the mid terms coming in November, they may hold off our of political expediency, not human decency.

Many Republicans aren't in favor of things like Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance, Food Stamps, etc. since they take money from people who have it and give it to people who don't.

A lot of people think Social Security is self funded and it looks that way on paper, but it is progressive, meaning the very poorest get a lot more than they paid in while the wealthiest don't.

So similar to the recent health insurance attack, Republicans simply talk about making it optional, let people put the contributions into savings or investments.

We know that doesn't work since if you struggle to buy groceries and pay the rent, you aren't investing in BITCOIN.

Social Security isn't going to make anyone wealthy but it does provide a bit of a cushion to those who need it the most, as well as a sense of dignity.

These are two things that Republicans simply don't care about.

In the normal course of human activity, left to a pure capitalist system or anything like it, some will get very rich but most will just get poorer.

So is Government supposed to protect the rich from the poor, or the poor from the rich?

In the first scenario you stop the idle poor from robbing the rich.  If they are poor they are of course idle, even if they work multiple jobs.

Let them work harder or depend on charity.  In a Christmas Carol the ultimate Republican is typified by Scrooge's attitude about the poor or his clerk, who used a holiday to rob him of a half day of wages.

Tick Tock, if we re-elect these folks, watch out.

Make a Wonderful Life

In the movie "It's a Wonderful Life" we see the story of a supposedly ordinary man who was never able to do the great things he dreamed about but did sacrifice for his family and his neighbors while standing up to the evil bully.

In the middle of the movie, after we get a review of his life he is brought to despair because of an event that wasn't his fault but which threatens to ruin him and everything he has worked for.

He is saved by a Guardian angel who shows him what the town would have been like if he had not been in it, and of course all the "little" things we saw him do weren't done and everything was a lot worse.

In the end it all works out but of course the message is our actions have more impact than we can know.

If you haven't seen the movie, I recommend it, although it is a bit dated.

Its hard non to see it as a fight between the little people and the evil rich person, and there is a message of populism built in where the Building and Loan is helping average folks lead a better life while the rich villain only cares about profits.

Oddly we live in a bit of a topsy-turvy time where a wealthy person  has convinced at least some average folk think he is their champion and the Building and Loan would be the enemy preventing the monied person from putting the money to better use.

Of course the scenario we see in the second half shows a town where slums are prevalent, prostitution and wild living are rampant and people we met in the first half living good lives are now forced to be, well evil, by their circumstances.

In an episode of Seinfeld, a character who had never seen the movie is made to watch it and his conclusion is that the "bad" town looked like a lot more fun than the "wholesome" town and the heroes were reversed.

Its a bit like our current situation with the dotard in charge, Mr. Costanza would be happy.

However, the vast majority of us prefer the town where the average folks live a more wholesome life so do everything you can to help, not hinder is the real message.  It may not seem like much but it may be more than you know.

Wealthy People

F. Scott Fitzgerald said about the rich "They are different then you and me".

If you read the full quote it goes on to say that they, because of their early advantages, are convinced they are better than the rest of us, because from a very early age they were treated better.

This of course applies to those born into wealth who never wanted for anything.

Look at the dotard.  He expects to be appreciated and loved and when he isn't he doesn't understand why not.

He has no real feeling for what most of us understand about the world we live in, In large part he is more of an outside observer than a participant.

If you have enough people and are as shallow as he is, you will always find people who tell you how smart and great you are, how nothing is your fault, how others tell lies about you.

It explains a lot of his behavior and those who think he is on their side are mistaken.

You are either on his side or you don't matter.

Yes he tells people he needs something from whatever he thinks they want to hear, why does he care if they actually believe him.

If you simply look at the life he lived, he was never faithful to anyone, changed his views frequently and was at best a so-so businessman.

He was never an A-lister in either business or the entertainment industry and was tolerated because he had money and some fame.

Of course for the people who voted for him, whether because of abortion, or racism, or even because he promised to get government off their backs (this was to his wealthy friends), you threw your lot in with someone who has never demonstrated that he is dependable or reliable.

Old dogs and all that.

Christmas

Merry Christmas to all.

I didn't need the dotard's permission to say that.

Also Happy Holidays to all.

Not everyone celebrates Christmas.

The politics of exclusion would have us believe that wishing non-Christians a happy holiday is somehow wrong.

We are a country with a majority of Christian citizens but that shouldn't mean that others aren't welcome.

Christmas is a celebration of the birth of Christ, if not the actual day.  He said there were two great commandants, love God and love thy neighbor.

Pretty much covers it all, lets give it a shot.

Immigrants R Us

There was a report by anonymous sources that the dotard said all Haitians have aids and Nigerians live in huts.

The White House is denying he said those things, but I think even his most loyal supporters are probably pretty sure he did.  In fact they are happy he did.

The fact that he has a low opinion of people from those and many other countries is not surprising, he sort of shouted it out during the campaign.

I'm not even sure it qualifies as news at this point.

There have always been people in this country who didn't like immigration, even when they themselves had recently immigrated.

Of course without immigration we wouldn't actually be a country.

The opposition to immigrants is part of a syndrome that happens to new homeowners.  You bought a house after most likely a lot of consideration and want the neighborhood to stay the way it was when you decided to live there.  Obviously if you move into a well established neighborhood, there's a chance that might happen, but don't forget, you yourself was a change for the older residents.

If you move into a development that is still expanding, of course some of the views and open spaces are likely to go away.

Change happens whether we like it or not.

Generally we are suspicious of people who don't seem to be like us.

Of course ultimately everybody is pretty much the same, no matter how they look or how they dress.

Just consider the second and third, maybe fourth generations of those immigrants who came here in the late 1800s, escaping famine, religious oppression and tyranny.

Of course, at the time, they were gong to destroy this country, lived like animals and spread crime.

People are people and no group is better or worse than any other.  Some are just more recent.

Protesting Democrats Instead of Republicans

The end of year Government extension was what is called a clean bill, meaning it didn't include any additional provisions, including any changes to DACA.

Now enough Democrats supported this extension that it passed and the Government continues into January.

Some interest groups that wanted the bill held up unless something about DACA was done are now protesting the Democrats who voted for it.

That is fine but of course the reason a clean bill was used was to avoid long debates and a Government shutdown.

It should be noted that extending or replacing DACA isn't supported by many Republicans although it is supported by nearly all Democrats.

It was revoked by a Republican president and it would be pretty simple to pass a law that recreated DACA if the Republican majority introduced something reasonable.

However, shutting the Government down over DACA wasn't going to work.

Clearly many Republicans would be fine with shutting it down if it could be blamed on the Democrats.

The point is that protesting Republicans isn't effective, they may be voting against you anyways.

So direct your anger at your supporters, because they should shut down the Government instead of trying to get a compromise bill passed.

I find this the sort of logic results in Republican majorities and a dotard as President.

You are on my side but not enough on my side so I'll let someone who is against me win by not voting, or maybe even voting against you.

Politics is tough and I understand having an issue that is critical to you,

However, an all or nothing strategy often gets you nothing.

If you were happy that Hillary lost because Bernie was better, are you still happy?

Are you?

Fun With Statistics

So yesterday the administration released a report that said half of prisoners in federal custody were in the country illegally.  Sounds sort of bad but it turns out that's because they were arrested for being in the country illegally.

Remember the federal Government handles immigration cases and a few other types of crimes while most crimes including the vast majority of violent crimes are prosecuted at the state and local level.

Because of the nature of federal crimes you will find people who were guilty of things like bank fraud among others, so I'm sure that there is a higher percentage of people like say Bernie Madoff in federal prisons than in the general population.

Its one of the fun things you can do with statistics and with the dotard in charge I don't know if he is manipulating them or simply sees a number and uses it.

Its like the way they try to distort the impact of the tax bill.

There are a lot more people who aren't rich than who are so if you give everybody an increase in their standard deduction while taking away personal and other deductions you can say more middle class people are getting tax breaks than rich people are.

Most of the benefits accrue to business and wealthy people but others do get a small tax break.  Of course its temporary but maybe it will get extended.

More likely though because the deficit is now going to be worse you will see an attack on entitlement programs that they depend on.

Growth statistics are another fun thing to play with.  If you increase the growth rate by a percentage point or two, the numbers are very nice.

Will the tax cut do this?  No one thinks it will except the dotard and his ilk and even his own economists don't.

You can however do it on a chart and since the future isn't here yet, you can show the chart and say things like, we can do that!

Well, probably not, but some will believe you.

When to Sell

There's a very good chance the market will sell off fairly soon now that the tax law has passed, since stocks had a big run up waiting for it.

However it will probably be after the New Year because if you sell now you probably have taxable gains at a time when you can't do much about them.

Of course the stock market is always a balance between the short term and the long term so if you are willing to watch your value go down for a while, it still has good long term prospects since corporate profits will get a shot in the arm as the tax reduction hits.

We do have that pesky increased debt but in the short term we might see a bit of a boost.

The one thing we do know is that the tax law improves corporate profitability and how they use that money is going to depend largely on the corporation's goals.

Generally profits can be used in a number of ways increased dividends, increased stock buybacks, increased capital investment, increased bonuses or used for acquisition and mergers.

They can also retire debt, but at the current interest rates not sure they will do much of that.

Further looking forward the future increase can also result is some of the same things, but you might see a percent diverted to salary increases.

Each company will decide the best way to use the money.  Some of those uses will have a bit of a stimulus impact, others will not.

The trouble is that the capital expansion investment will tend to reduce jobs as facilities are modernized to be more automated.

Of course stock buybacks and acquisitions also tend to have little impact on main street.

Increased bonuses and wages do, but it is question of how much of an impact this will have.

The small business, pass-thru companies may actually hire.  There is so much variation there its just hard to tell and we don't have a lot of surplus labor right now.  Guess retirees may be coaxed back.

Housing is the big unknown since owning has become less desirable depending of where you live and housing is the one area that impacts local employment directly.  If housing values drop, as many are likely to, the loss of wealth may exceed any tax stimulus but it might not.

If everyone runs out and buys imported goods with that extra money well, the people building smartphones in China will have jobs.

Economics is the sum of millions of individual decisions when you come down to it and maybe the capital will be used to finance domestic things, like solar or wind based technology that will create local jobs.

Maybe not.

Cash is looking pretty attractive in the New Year.

I expect greatly increased volatility, of course I'm frequently wrong.

Boring Economics

It looks like this so called tax and jobs bill is going to pass and be signed even though there are no jobs in it.

Don't get me wrong, some people will be able to afford additional domestic help around the mansion, but as far as jobs that help working class Americans its all smoke and mirrors.

Of course the monkeys in the monkey house buy into a concept that America can achieve the type of growth it did in certain past periods including a number of notable economic eras.

There was a lot of growth during and after the world war with the amount spent to fight the war and afterword's with the veterans education and interstate highway as well as the fact that American manufacturing had a bit of a monopoly while the other industrial powers rebuilt.

You then had the baby boom generation entering the workforce and a increase in defense spending that continues to this day.

So what inspires growth?

Spending, by Government or Consumers.

Businesses don't make products they can't sell or expand facilitates to make products no one needs.  The supply side premise is based on the supply and demand chart, but the concept that supply can drive the chart is a conservative concept that is a mathematical construct, not a real one.

While decreasing the cost of items (supply) theory will have an impact on demand, limits exist.

Agriculture is a good example since years when crops exceed demand are not generally very good years for farmers, in fact it makes them lose money.

Simply reducing the cost of production doesn't mean there will be more production, unless there is more demand.

More demand is driven by more consumers since any one consumer can only consume so much.

Further, as our demographics age you have baby boomers leaving their peak earning years and consuming less.

Will the boost to corporations bottom lines somehow change all this?  Well since the people who run businesses aren't generally monkeys and dotards, the answer is only if customers appear.

It might have some impact on exports but as far as greatly increasing our GDP, by itself, its just going to make rich people even richer.

Stocks or Bonds or ?

Its getting pretty close to Christmas and like many of us the congress is about to give a present they can't afford, meaning they will have debt they have to pay off.

Luckily with all the debt they pile up the interest rates have been very favorable.

If they had to pay Credit Card rates or anything close the nation would be in deep trouble.

Of course interest rates are likely to go up, how much is the question?

The Fed has raised them modestly and is planning additional hikes.

So far, based on the promised additional profits the stock market hasn't reacted negatively, but if the old stock advice is still valid, buy on the rumor, sell on the news, when the tax law gets passed, it might react negatively.

Expectation often exceeds the reality so that advice is pretty sound, although none of it is always right.

If interest rates are expected to rise, you expect the price of bonds to go down since they have to equal the current going rate.

So anticipating a fall in bond prices you keep your money elsewhere.

Stocks are the logical choice.

The move in interest rates has been slow though so the question becomes at what point are Bonds better than stocks?

Probably best to wait until next year to avoid the tax bite.

Scams and Tax Reform

As I was scanning the news headlines today one was about how a man stole $100 million from his clients and now is living in luxury.  I would think that would be the point although the story reveals a complicated possible con of wealthy people in Europe where the number of jurisdictions may have allowed the scammer to get off with a minor sentence and a lot of money.

Of course financial scams are tricky things, most of them fail, as this one did, when one of the victims wants some or all of their money.  Of course the question is how many scams don't get discovered?

One of the interesting things about this is how wealthy well educated people seem as easily tricked as everyone else.

Even maybe worse is how many companies, like the Swiss firm that was ruined by this person's actions, hire people who have the right background and connections, but no real qualifications.

Generally its possible that his luxurious life in the South of France may yet be disrupted, some of his victims are pretty determined, but for the last 15 years or so he has lived a lifestyle that eludes the vast majority of people and at worse he well end up in some European equivalent of a Club Fed.

What does any of this mean?  It seems that crime does indeed pay, it just depends what sort of crime.

Of course this week we are going to see a travesty of a tax bill probably pass which will put a trillion dollars into the coffers of business and add that amount to the debt we as a nation have to pay.

The biggest part of this con is that the dotard will lie and say it is a tremendous middle class tax cut, citing some numbers that are based on half the equation, the reduction in the tax rates and the increase in the standard deduction, ignoring the reduction in personal exemptions and itemized deductions.

Still, there are enough people who use the standard deduction that it is a net decrease, not much per capita, but a net decrease while of course all businesses and pass thru corporations get the full benefit of the corporate rate deduction.

One of the biggest scams is eliminating the requirement to get health insurance which appeals to certain people who don't want to pay their fair share now, but will cost many significantly in increased premiums. 

These are bills that will come due in the future folks, and like the financial scam above, they end up costing a lot in the end.

Quid pro Qou

Coincidentally the senator changed his mind around the same time a provision was added to the tax bill that is going to make him a lot of money.

In order to maintain his innocence he admitted that he hadn't read the bill, just relied on what otherstold him was in it.

Corker Doesn't Read

Now I believe he didn't read the entire bill, I'm pretty sure few of the monkeys did and I know the dotard didn't, but it just seems off that not one told him that they were expanding the pass thru provision to include his type of company.

I'm pretty sure none of his fellow party members will see anything suspicious here even though if someone involved in any criminal investigation of the Clintons were even at the same event as one of them years ago it is clear evidence of collusion and conspiracy.

Of course if they are actually investigating the Russian connection, it seems pretty irrelevant.

The Clintons were as ubiquitous in politics as Kevin Bacon was in movies so if you put a little effort you can probably find a link to just about anybody who's anybody is well under seven steps.

What does that mean?

Well its pretty simple, nothing, nothing at all, unless you watch Fox or are a conspiracy theorist.

Then it becomes an obsession.

Meanwhile pretty straightforward connections aren't believed because he denies it.

Lesson learned, at least for now, is just say it wasn't you.

Shaggy, It Wasn't Me

Saturday Ramblings

Sadly, John McCain's condition seems to be worsening.  He was a hero, despite being captured and a decent and honest person, who's politics I didn't always agree with, but still, I wish him the best.

Chances of the tax bill passing seem higher, Although the majority in the Senate is razor thin.  See if anything develops over the weekend.

Business has been pushing to get the corporate tax rate lowered for quite a while and the whole act is really designed to do that.  The rest of it is just give and take to make it seem like something and some will be winners, mostly very wealthy people and everyone else will be about the same.

The debt will increase, and it is worth discussing if reducing revenue with such a large deficit makes sense?

The entire Republican agenda is predicated on concepts that develop out of conversations you hear at cocktail parties and they accept the conclusions blindly.

Certain truths are simply accepted, regulation is bad, less government is good, wealth trickles down.  Of course, those things are worthy of discussion although its never as clear cut as that.

The real issue in this country is pretty simple, our demographics.

The baby boomer bulge is moving into retirement and the number of replacement workers is not enough, but that's probably a good thing since so many jobs have been automated out of existence.

The problem it creates is that without that pyramid where there are more workers on the bottom paying in than on the top taking out, social security is not sustainable.

We need more young people and instead of welcoming them we are trying to kick some of them out.

Suppose for an instant that the corporate tax reduction does result in some sort of expansion, although I don't think it will.  Where are the workers?  They happen to be overseas so the hiring isn't going to be in the rust belt.  Economics dictate what you pay and for low skilled workers this country's workers want too much.  Skilled workers are actually in short supply already, so that's not going to lead to much.

The companies will use the money to reward their executives even more since profits will be up, and maybe buy back their own stock or acquire other companies.  Those things don't create jobs, generally they end up reducing them as redundancies are eliminated.

What would create good paying jobs for people with basic skills would be infrastructure investment to fix our roads and bridges.  There are years of work in those projects but now, with the reduction in income, we have less money to pay for them.

Oh well, they are going to celebrate passing something, hope the people figure out its just a scam.

Winners and Losers

As I was thinking about the differences between the two major parties it occurred to me that one party was focused on winners and the other was focused on, well, losers for lack of a better word.

Take the republican viewpoint which is generally forged by middle to upper middle class backgrounds.

In this world if you do what you're supposed to do, go to school, stay out of serious trouble the odds are that you will end up living a middle class lifestyle.

The ones who don't succeed generally have some sort of flaw, drug addiction, inability to conform or other that results in them falling in status.

The other factor is that the people who fail to succeed actually disappear, either moving to poor neighborhoods, going to jail or just vanishing so to speak, while successful people from the lower classes who succeed end up joining the neighborhoods.

Their world view is that whether you do well or don't, its pretty much up to you and they ignore the fact that in their world, success is almost guaranteed to those born and raised in it.

The Government is in fact more of a problem than a help, taxing you and using those taxes to help undeserving needy people.

On the other side you have people born in lower to poor areas where in general the expectation is similar in that you expect to emulate your parents, its just a much lower bar.  Schools are worse, affording higher education is difficult, you might have to help pay some bills around the house, and when anything goes wrong, financial support is not available.

Of course some of these people succeed, meaning they ignore the widely available temptations around them, study, go to college and get a good job.  Of course one of the first things they do is move to a better neighborhood.

So for the majority of these people the norm is a struggle to survive with many becoming addicts, criminals or homeless and failure is all around while success isn't.

If you are lower middle class and see what happens when you lose your job to you and even worse your family, you are fearful.

In this world you need some help from the Government,  health care, unemployment insurance, food stamps, student loans to give you a chance.

Success is hard and requires some help, at least sometimes.  Yes, some can succeed on their own, but many live on the edge and are in real danger of falling even further.

The divisions are getting worse, not better and you either want to help the less fortunate do better or you want to help the successful stay that way.

Bad Dream

It looks like there are going to be significant changes in the White House staff going into next year.

Its reported that Omarosa was forcibly removed from the grounds but she officially resigns as of January 20.  I was never quite sure what her job was supposed to be outside of being a token, but guess she wasn't good enough at it.

Of course the staff is taking a lot of blame from the dotard since he can never be at fault for anything that doesn't go right.

Lots of things aren't going right, and the odd thing about it is he could have coasted on the tails of his predecessor who left him a strong economy and rising stock market.

Instead he decided to attack the environment, attack our allies, attack lots of random people and spend less time doing his job than any recent president.

Considering his lack of staff, incompetent cabinet members and general dysfunction in his party, if it is even his party, you would expect him to be there more.

He has his propaganda channel  that he watches and calls everything honestly critical of him fake news.

If I was reading this in a novel, I would get a lot of chuckles but probably dismiss it as too ridiculous to believe.

Sadly I'm pretty sure I am actually awake and this isn't a bad dream I'm having right before the election of 2016.

However, it would certainly be nice to wake up in a world that wasn't as crazy as this one.

One Less Sex Offender In Congress

The vote in Alabama is encouraging in that we aren't sending a sex offending crackpot to the Senate, which is better than the alternative.

It certainly is a little less encouraging in the fact that it was as close as it was, when we had a candidate who clearly was both unqualified and a child molester.

Still, small steps are better than no steps so we see an uptick in quality come January.

The bigger issue as we move into 2018 is how do progressive issues which are designed to help all Americans get communicated.

Part of the problem is that when you talk about the people who need the most help, it sounds a bit like favoritism.

Take Affirmative Action which is simply designed to provide an equal opportunity to groups that in the past have not had the same opportunity as others.

Well if in the past 99 out of a 100 successful candidates were majority candidates and you decide to reduce that to 90 out of a 100, you somewhat disadvantage 9 previously successful candidates.

If it is a zero sum game, you have winners and losers.

There is clearly still a long way to go in this country to level the playing field and I'm not sure everyone even wants to.

The best predictor of how your children are going to do is to look at how you are doing.

Yes we have some upward and downward mobility, but not as much as one would think so change is a very slow process.

We still have an obligation to try.

BITCOIN?

If you are interested in finances at all, or by now just read the news, you have to be aware that BITCOIN has had an amazing run up.

The reason for this is simply demand since it has no intrinsic value at all.

I looked at BITCOIN a few years ago, decided that trying to mine it was beyond my computers capabilities and thought it was already overvalued.

Of course since then and especially in the last year or so, it has exploded in value so I guess I was wrong.

However, looking at it now I would draw the exact same conclusion, its overvalued because the only value it has is how much someone else is willing to pay for it.

Now that in itself isn't unusual, pretty much everything is valued that way.  The problem with BITCOIN is that it is either a fad (bubble) or is isn't.

It looks, smells and acts like a bubble, so its hard to believe it isn't.

Bubbles, like Ponzi schemes reward early investors but ultimately harms the majority of investors.

Was I wrong back when I thought it was overvalued (think it was under a $1,000) a few years ago?

Well the market says I was, but I'm not sure I was.

Am I wrong now to think its overvalued when its selling over $15,000?

I might be, but there is still nothing about it that tells me it has any real value at all.

Of course the more it goes up, the more it will tempt people to buy it, until at some point it stops.

Bubbles pop and when they do they deflate very quickly.

Also very painfully.

Social Issues

One of the reasons Democrats can make little headway in certain parts of this country is the social issues they are associated with.

Two big ones are abortion and gay rights (marriage).

If you consider one or both of these things as a sin, you aren't going to vote for anyone who supports them.

That puts Democratic candidates at a big disadvantage to start in many areas.

Generally, with a few exceptions, people who support freedom of choice and freedom of sexual preference, don't vote for a candidate because they support these issues, they tend to consider other factors.

This is partly because for many of us the issues are considered determined, except there is a large segment of the public who wants to change that.

Take abortion.

While I support a women's right to choose, I would never want anyone I knew to have one unless it was medically necessary.  Ideally we would eliminate the need for most abortions via education and availability of birth control.

Similarly I support the right of people to love whoever they want to and to have that love recognized as valid in the same way that heterosexual love is.

This is however more of an intellectual position than an emotional one, while those who view it as an abomination are much more involved.

This is the situation for many issues and one side uses it as a pass fail criteria and the other isn't.

Empty Promises

Has the first snow of the season here, makes it seem like the holiday season.

So the current tax bill is going to make the deficit worse at which point the monkeys are gonna chatter about cutting entitlement programs.  So less for the old and poor and more for the rich, old and young.

It amazes me how many people walk around believing complete fabrications. Unfortunately one of them is our dotard.

A large number still believe our prior president was born in Kenya and that the Government staged the moon landing.

When a tax bill or health bill is formulated in secret by small groups it certainly leads to some distrust.

The less we know the better for them.

A lot of us don't seem to care until we don't like what happens and then want to know who let it happen?  Well we did.

What the Government does impacts you more and more every year.

We live in an interconnected world where rejecting the Paris accord leads to more future storm damage.

Letting the public lands be mined makes a few people rich but diminishes the rest of us and hurts wildlife.

Its our future and we need to insist on certain actions that are good for everyone, not just a few.

If you vote for the best liar, well you will be lied to a lot.

How you vote is less important than knowing why your voting.    Empty promises don't mean much unless people just accept them.

Where's the Slap On the Faces?

When I read some of the accusations coming out about inappropriate sexual or imagined sexual behavior, I find some very credible but a bunch that just don't ring true.

For example you pose with someone in public to take a picture and he grabs your ass.  No reaction?  Really?  Wouldn't you at the very least ask what are you doing?  There were a lot of other people around and no one noticed?

Now apparently there are a bunch of women who don't react like every other person in the world when something totally unexpected and unwanted happens to them.

There are certain elements to these type of stories that would make them easy enough to fake if there was some motivation to do so.  No one can deny it happened except the accused. Easy enough to get a few people to say you mentioned it to them at the time, but regardless, I never met the person who gets their ass or breast grabbed in public and didn't react somehow.

There are some elements that are common is some of the Hollywood incidents that also seem troubling, almost as if from a script.

First something inappropriate has to be alleged, something of which there is no record.  Then a bunch of unnamed but important people have to warn you not to report it at the time because it will ruin your career.

This bring me to the third element that bothers me.  Were some of these incidents, even if they happened, anything at all?

Someone kisses you in rehearsal in a way you consider "wrong".  Well it was supposed to be a rehearsal, was it really anything?

In some cases the stories include allegations that the perpetrator ogled the victim.  Maybe, maybe not but not actually anything either way.  One persons ogling is another's glance.

There are victims out there and I would like to think that we are not seeing an attempt to discredit certain allegations by creating a bunch of unverifiable ones that will make it seem, well almost normal.

I fear however that we have people either with malicious or other motivation coming forward with allegations that are simply nothing really.

I suspect that pretty much every women in the world has received some sort of unwanted attention or possibly touching during their lives.  Should we put every teenage boy on the registry who tries to cop a feel during a date?  I hope not.  He deserves a good slap on the face not a lifetime sentence.

The ones who don't stop when told are the real problems.  I guess we can just classify all men as sexual predators and move on.

The Long Wait

There are people who think the world is very different from what most of us think.

If you listen to the faux news channel you get the idea that America can do whatever it wants to because we are the strongest nation in the world.

We certainly are militarily but realistically, we are stretching our forces pretty thin, as do all countries in situations like ours.

Its not a contest between globalism and some misguided America first policy, we live in a world where we represent a fraction of the total.

As rich as we are, we are not able to be the arbiters of everything everywhere.

That's where diplomacy and joint initiatives come into play.

Of course we have the embarrassing dotard who clearly doesn't understand things like that and thinks his only real concern is pleasing some constituent base.

People voted for him because they didn't think he was a politician, but he is.

In fact he is the most political of them all, since he will say whatever he thinks will go over well with the crowds he likes to play to.

He's reminiscent of old movie politicians who only cared about themselves, because he only cares about himself.

He has no desire to serve the public, he wants to make gestures and take credit.

The Affordable Care Act is an example of how he believes some propaganda with no concept of the actual truth of the matter, it is sort of working.

This tax package which is a big Government giveaway isn't what he thinks it is, but if they pass something he'll take credit for a historic tax cut for the middle class, those earning between 1 and 100 million I guess.

Let make an announcement that plays well to the pro Israel and evangelicals although it accomplishes nothing and hurts any peace efforts, which might be a pipe dream anyway.

The people who thought the mines were gonna open and the factories were coming back are still waiting.

Making the World More Dangerous

The US recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel may seem like a non-event to many, I really don't care myself, except it clearly adds to the risk of retaliation against Americans.

The other problem is that we seem now to be unable to extract ourselves from the wars in the Middle East that we have been at for longer than any others.

Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria seem to be places where American support and American troops (advisers) are going to be for the foreseeable future.

With additional unease caused by this move, the enemy will have additional recruitment resources.

These wars are costly, both in money and the lives they affect.  While the number of casualties is down from its high point, it is by no means safe and the money diverted to pay for these wars is adding to our growing deficit and national debt.

The one lesson that the past teaches us is that no nation can continue to overextend themselves indefinitely.  It's disruptive at home and costly and in general has led to the fall of all of them.

Its even worse considering that there is no offsetting benefits.

What can we possibly gain fighting these wars?  They increase the risk of terrorist attacks and increase overall resentment against us.

We aren't planning to seize their resources or enslave their people.

I only mentioned the Middle Eastern countries but as the radicalization grows our presence is expanding.

We recently lost American troops in Niger and not so long ago Libya.

We are overextending and over deploying our troops and it results in shattered lives with little to show for it.

We now have to deal with the North Korean situation and no one knows that outcome.

We have created a world, over the last twenty years of crisis diplomacy.

We had some allies, not friends that fought with us in the Arab world.

Is it really desirable to make it even harder for them to work with us?

Government Shut Down?

You would think that knowing the money runs out on a certain day would enable the monkeys to do something about it.

I suspect they will avoid a shut down, although the argument seems to be over two weeks versus three weeks for an extension which seems inadequate.

Still they are still recovering from the celebration after they got a tax bill passed in the Senate although they have to get it reconciled with the House bill.

This shouldn't be that hard except they made promises to pass it that aren't what the House signed up for, at least not all of them.

Also, at some point the House members representing States with high tax levels may wake up and realize they are going to be screwing their constituents.

Assuming the constituents are paying attention.

Time will tell if enough representatives realize they are both hurting the public and driving up the deficit.

I doubt they will since they buy into the idea that somehow the technology is going to go away and millions of jobs will be created.

It was a little surprising to me how many Americans accept the lies about what is going on in this country, when they don't actually see it happening where they live.

Of course there are isolated incidents of things, its a big country, but one incident of say a school board doing something stupid only means there are stupid school boards out there.  It doesn't mean that some great conspiracy is undermining American values.

The dotard buys into these theories and he got elected, so it goes to show that many people have a pretty tenuous grasp on reality.

Great America

The American people have to decide what kind of Government they want, one that recreates the robber baron age and says maybe you can get a job or one that guarantees certain standards for all.

During the age of industrialization you had the growth of slums and ghettos and millions of people living in abject poverty, working for survival wages and often at risk for deadly diseases that killed or crippled millions.

There were some periods of prosperity but those periods did not help everybody, just the more fortunate.

This was during a time when manual labor was the only real way to get things done and still wages were barely sufficient to sustain life.

Of course some bettered themselves, but many couldn't until the Unions and the new deal led to a period where the working person started to earn a living wage and had a bit of a safety net that provided some support in periods of unemployment and a small pension in old age.

This is the period that most people envision when they hear the slogan, "Make America Great Again" and the dotard promises to bring back those jobs and open those mines.

Of course his policies do the very opposite as they rip apart the social safety net and endanger social security and Medicare.

He say they don't but they do.

America of the future is going to be very different from the America of the past, but to achieve that future we need to accept that its training and skills which lead to success.

Automation is replacing the unskilled and semi-skilled labor.

Its continuing and giving business more profits will only allow the pace to pick up.

Address the world of tomorrow or fantasize about the past, the choice is ours and while fantasy is easy, it just lasts a little while.

Read and Think

I wish people would take the time to understand what some of the stuff they read or post actually says.

The main thing I see is stuff that attacks a position that no one is pursuing.

For example, they are coming to take your guns if you don't stop them.

Now this type of thing is always based on a sort of hinted conspiracy of people who are trying to take away American values and rights.

However, the one case where we know that to be true is when the Russians influenced the election and told lies and exaggerations to poison the well.

They get away with this because we have media that is will to allow these sort of weird theories air time to get viewers and ad revenues.

Another example is the so called attack on Christian values.

Millions of Americans are convinced that someone is trying to undermine their religious beliefs.  No one is, in fact the main intolerance seems to be the other way around.

Trying to make this country promote a single set of beliefs is clearly a violation of our constitution and a betrayal of our heritage, yes most everyone was a Christian but we promoted freedom of religion, not religious conformance.

So much of this is passed on without actually thinking about what it is saying.  For example. no one cares if you go around saying Merry Christmas.  You just don't have to.

Happy Reindeers!

The Republicans buy into the idea that if you reduce the cost of supply, prices will get cheaper and more items will be bought.  This increase in economic activity will lead to more jobs, more income and a better economy overall.

There is a certain validity to this, especially when the economy is sluggish and there are available idle facilities.

However, businesses invest money where they can get the most profits and as we have seen over the last few decades, the main returns are in overseas manufacturing and automation.

To the extent that people are suffering in this economy it is the people who were replaced by cheaper overseas labor or robots.

Statistics on income inequality generally focus on the top end and point out how the top 1% have a large percentage of the wealth.

As true as this is, the inequality is much more basic and visible.  Few people get to see the very wealthy on a regular basis.  However the economy now pays its well educated technical and business people quite well, although they don't think so and these people live in safe suburbs, with children in good schools and they eat at good restaurants and generally enjoy what is middle to upper middle class life.

I'm not talking about the heads of the company, just the talent that demands good pay and bonuses.

Meanwhile in the next town we have our displaced factory worker where both parents are working at low paying jobs, or government benefits, kids in private school and struggling to afford a few presents at Walmart, where they may get an employee discount.

The one group gets paid in the hundreds of thousands and the second group in the tens of thousands.

The first group may very well buy another new car if the prices go down, the second group may have to replace the used car they drive if it breaks down.

Not too long ago, the lesser paid group had jobs that bordered on the higher paid groups pay scale in auto plants and steel mills.  They were however not a good investment and so they lost most of those jobs and find themselves working in the service industry or not at all.

There is nothing in supply side theory that is going to restore these jobs.  It looks like the business tax cuts are going to happen and the odds of any dramatic changes in the economy are slim. However, in fairness, predicting the economy is pretty much a crap shoot so while a recession is more likely than a boom, stock prices will rise since profits are looking brighter.

What happens to those Walmart Happy Reindeers when the season is over?

Better Profits Tax Act

It seems pretty certain that business tax rates are going to be reduced since that reduction is in both the House and the Senate versions.  The idea behind this is that by reducing the rates the US companies will have more earnings to invest and expand.

Of course they don't have to use the money that way and to the extent that many businesses are already rolling in cash and interest rates are still historically low, if there were profitable investments, I think they would have been taken.

The other possibility is that a new venture is profitable enough at a 20% rate than a 35% rate leading to start ups that didn't pass a return on investment criteria at the old rate.

Republicans act like this increase is going to be significant but most economists don't agree and see a very modest impact.

Still I suppose a modest impact is better than no impact except for the fact that we can't pay our bills already and this money is being borrowed by the Government.

So deficits and the debt will increase and these create a drag on the economy as the debt payments aren't used for things like infrastructure improvement or other productive uses.

Further, if interest rates rise, which inevitably they will, the debt payments get significantly worse.

The final piece of this puzzle is that business when it does invest, creates more efficient factories meaning more automation and less jobs.

So most of the increased activity won't actually be new jobs, just more profits.

Swampy Tax Bill

The Senate GOP tax bill would slash the corporate tax rate to 20 percent starting in 2019. It would also create incentives for multinational companies to bring foreign earnings back to the United States. And it encourages businesses to invest more, allowing them to immediately expense the cost of things such as new equipment and machinery.

The bill would temporarily cut taxes on families and individuals, lowering tax rates and expanding the amount of income that isn't subject to taxation. It would also, temporarily, expand the child tax credit for families earning less than $1 million. But it would also cut back on many tax breaks, prohibiting people from deducting the taxes they pay to states and localities.

Of course this bill would have to be reconciled with the house bill if it passes, and they really want to pass it, so expect some band aids to be applied.

The bill is going to make the deficit worse and if the same group of alligators continue to occupy the swamp they will go after Social Security, Medicaid and other programs while propping up defense contractors and Wall Street.

Its inevitable and since we now live in what I used to think of as a fictional world created in 1984, we have big brother telling us what is real and what is fake, even though the reality is different.

This is the greatest middle class tax cut ever would be sad if true since it hardly touches middle class taxes.

It plays games and seems to lower tax rates and increase the standard deduction but it eliminates the personnel deduction and many other deductions that people use.

I saw an estimate that for people earning less than $100,000, 60% might see a reduction of more than $100.  The other 40% would see less than $100 or an increase.

Its not like if you are in the lucky 60% its going to be thousands, just more than $100.  Maybe $500, but remember it expires so spend it carefully.  Your probably going to have to live with less Social Security or pay higher health care premiums soon enough.

The swamp continues to grow and that sinking sensation you feel is because the quicksand is sucking you down.

The companies can use the extra money to build bigger and better robots to replace you, so kindly step aside and except their word about how great America is for them.

You thought that slogan was about you?  Well PT Barnum is so proud.  This way to the egress.

What Is Inappropriate Behavior?

With all the allegations of sexual harassment in the news you start to wonder "What the F...?"

Having been in the workplace for many years, although apparently a pretty boring one, I'm aware that there is a certain amount of interaction between men and women, some of which is welcome and some not welcome at all.

People spend a lot of time at work and there is a lot of time for interactions.

I've always worked in places where there were strict rules but rules are meant to be broken and much like any other place where people are together I've seen romance's blossom, some hearts broken, both ways and some bitter aftermaths.

I have seen a few cases of clearly inappropriate behavior that were handled and discipline administered.

What I now wonder is how much else may have been going on and how much did some behavior which seemed normal at the time border on what I read as sexual harassment now.

One example concerns relatively young naive people, both men and women who at lunch or near the water cooler might be teased about certain things that might elicit a blush or an awkward response.

Of course this is something that I consider fairly normal but after reading some accounts, is it now considered harassment or bullying?

Also what constitutes inappropriate touching?  Apparently shoulder rubs are a no-no.  It just seems that they used to be considered a nice thing.  Obviously they were never ok if objected to but if offered and accepted it never seemed inappropriate.

I'm not defending anyone who went over the line or used their position to force certain inappropriate behavior, but the line seems to be shifting and I wonder where it is going to stop. 

I know that human nature isn't going to change.

Impact of Tax Manipulation

It is certainly possible that we will see a tax bill passed to appease big business, not because it is considered wonderful, but because it is needed so Republicans can say they got something done.

The bill itself is clearly not of much benefit to anyone not already fairly wealthy although it does throw the masses a few bones.  Of course the real impact won't be felt until people file their 2018 tax returns, well after the midterms and before that many individuals might actually see small increases in take home pay as the tax rates get reduced.

The vast majority of Americans today actually use the tax system as sort of a forced saving device where what the pay every pay period is a little too high resulting in a refund when they file their taxes.

Having that little more in you pay check may seem fine until you find out the usual refund from personal deductions and other things has vanished.

As I said, the details are still vague and we know the benefit to low and middle class people is almost nothing, with increases likely in many States that have high taxes, but its simply impossible to do all the math until the bill is actually finalized and conferenced.

That's not going to stop our dotard talking about how it doesn't help people like him (it does) and how it is all aimed at the middle class (it isn't). 

We do know it is going to be a bonanza for business and wealthy individuals and that it will significantly increase the debt.  The only hope would be that it stimulates the economy so much that the increase economic activity offsets the expenses.  However, considering the looming worker shortage and the current level of activity, the chances of that are pretty slim.

More likely to have the opposite effect, as any excess can be used to buy down debt as the Fed increases the discount rate. 

Let's hope not.

State Dotardism

You set up a ceremony to honor true living heroes who served the country well and it should be a nice photo opportunity and a chance to generate some good will.

Of course, our dotard can't handle it.

He effectively slurs Elizabeth Warren who may or may not have some minor amount of native American ancestry by calling her Pocahontas, acting like its a common nickname for her, it isn't except maybe among rabid supporters or our dotard.

So a simple press opportunity becomes a story highlighting how he disrespected the Navajo code writers and it was compounded by staging the ceremony in front of a portrait of Andrew Jackson who was no friend to the Native Americans in his day.

This will enable him to talk about fake news not covering the fact that he recognized the code writers but instead focusing on something irrelevant.  Of course every story will mention the purpose of the event, so they did cover it but he gave them the man bites dog angle that will get published.

Let's assume for a second that it isn't just idiocy, although that is a strong candidate, but some calculated strategy to divert attention from other news.

The fact that he is trying to neuter the Financial Protection Agency which Warren was a major proponent of may be the reason, since its very possible the courts will make him get congressional approval of his appointment.

Of course this publicity leads to the obvious point that he is in the hands of the big banks that his supporters hate so he needs to deflect.

So insult Warren and disrespect the code writers, but then have his own fake fox news argue wasn't disrespect at all.

I'm sure they will, puppet President, puppet news channel, puppet Congress and maybe soon a puppet court system.

Wasn't this what we fought against during the war the code writers helped us win?

Payback?

Every analysis I see about the two tax "reform' proposals clearly show that the real impact is to borrow money from the wealthy and then give it to them in tax breaks.

The rest of the bill is pretty much just distraction where some deductions go away and some deductions increase with no real impact except on a few who tend to suffer.

But reducing taxes on the major campaign contributors is always there and I'm sure it guarantees future donations.

Hell they even have said it, failure to pass this will lead to dried up funding.

The donors want their payback and they want it now, or else.

That's why the Republicans are willing to push ahead with a law that is unpopular now and likely to be more so if it passes.

Getting those donations will allow them to attribute any economic progress to the bill, even though we are already close to full employment and most businesses are doing quite well.

In fact the odds of this economic situation continuing under this administration is questionable, so they need to pass it before a recession comes.

The economic expansion goes back to shortly after the great recession and generally we are overdue for a correction.  I hope we don't get one, but we always have in the past.

Increased debt to pay the donors increases the chance of higher interest rates and that could easily tip the scales.

So pass this give away while they can claim credit where none is due/

The donors will know they delivered.

Fake News and those who believe it.

Sometimes you talk to someone and they say something so wrong that you don't know what to do.

For example there are people who argue that the Earth is flat.  This despite the fact that by now enough people have circumnavigated it to fill a small country and there are countless pictures from space.

Since the new way to deny the obvious is to declare it fake news or a conspiracy, you reveal yourself as being part of one or the other when you dispute him/her.

Something has gone very wrong when a larger than usual group of people hold views that are simply inane.

I'm not talking about people who think aliens exist or that there was more than one shooter involved in the JFK assassination, although I guess some it started with those people.

There are people with shows that espouse views that are simply dangerous and ridiculous but have a lot of listeners.

Denying Sandy Hook or the Las Vegas shootings as being staged by a group that is trying to take away guns, I think that's the argument, is cruel and vicious to the survivors of those events and relatives of the victims who know first hand that the events were very real.

The idea that we live in a society where lies are assumed is a sad statement and unfortunately if the argument is that everything you produce as proof is fabricated, then there is no real way to argue with them.

They are best ignored but we have theories going around spread by these people that are in fact dangerous.

Take the anti-vac people who are causing diseases to re-appear that were close to eliminated.

The very small risk related to taking vaccinations is nothing compared to the risk of the diseases themselves.

Ignore the fact that the industries in the world have been spewing dangerous and unknown chemical into the atmosphere at breakneck speed, and blame certain development on tested and approved medical treatments sponsored by those get rich quick doctors.

If you react the same way to every risk, you would probably never leave your house without a load of  heavy duty sunscreen, you certainly wouldn't drive or fly and probably realize that walking or running were likely to kill you any second now.

What we really need in this country is a return to common sense where we realize that what you see in the movies or on TV is not necessarily representative of the real world and people who tell you everyone else is lying to you are the ones doing the lying.

Less virtual and more actual reality please.

Conservative?

People use this term as if it was something everyone understood.  There's a definition of it in the dictionary but in usage it represents lots of different things, many of which aren't at all conservative in the dictionary sense.

In the definition it refers to someone who is averse to change, but people who call themselves conservatives are trying to change many things.

From a family values point of view they want to get rid of abortions and eliminate gay marriage.

Those now each represent changes, but they would argue they want to return to the way it once was, but of course its still a change.

Conservatives are trying to change the tax system to give business more money and raise the deficit.  These are both changes.

Many people calling themselves conservatives want to define this as a Christian country which would certainly be a major and radical change to the country where religious freedom was a founding principle.

They only want you to be free to practice a form of Christianity.

Of course they ignore Christian values when it suits their purpose and ignore abuse against women and minorities which isn't very Christian at all.

They can call themselves whatever they want but there isn't much conservatism in their positions for the most part.

They make up issues such as political correctness or worrying about what language people speak.

A real conservative would respect our constitutional freedom including freedom of religion.  They would respect the principle that all men are created equal with the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

They would represent real American values, not this made up faux radical stuff they call conservative values.

Trade

Pretty much every time the dotard tweets it makes you shake your head.

The point is that he seems to believe a lot of what he tweets even when it is obviously wrong.

In fact one wonders how he can be so wrong so often, but then again a lot of other people ate getting like that too.

There really are only two major positions on trade, one is to have unrestricted free trade with other nations and the other is to restrict it.

Economists would argue that the first is the better strategy with maybe a few limited exceptions.  The reason is that is allows the most efficient producer to sell the most products leading to the most efficient us of resources.

The protected trade position ends up keeping inefficiencies in the system as they are protected form competition.

It may be a worthwhile policy, on a limited basis to protect a new business until it can mature by giving it favorable access to your domestic market, understanding that it will cost your people more, at least in the short term.

It doesn't seem like the dotard has a clue about trade and seems to think the way it gets measured is by who sells the most, "the winner" of the deal.

So when cheap foreign manufacturers ended up selling more to us, at least on the surface, the dotard feels it is a bad deal.

It is almost inevitable that in most circumstances foreign countries will sell us more products than we will sell them for the simple reason that our economy is so much bigger.  We are the jackpot market and we just buy more than anyone else.

Of course, being wrong about a fairly complex issue isn't the worst thing, one would think he would have economic advisers who could explain it.  They aren't the people on the Faux Channel though.

Happy Thanksgiving

Its Thanksgiving Day in America and their are still many things to be thankful for, and I wish everyone a great holiday and hope it is a happy and peaceful one.

The net month and a half is officially the holiday season, I guess, and the retailers have started their "black Friday" sales a bit earlier as they do each year.

You get a bit nostalgic around this time if you have reached a certain age thinking back on when everything seemed simpler and less materialistic.

The past wasn't really better, although it was probably healthier with more actual activities and less virtual ones.

A great advantage of growing up in the city back then was all the walking, walk to play, walk to school, walk to the store, walk to the subway, walk up the stairs to your apartment.

These didn't seem like big advantages, but to get that sort of exercise in the suburbs, you have to work at it, and probably pay a pretty penny to a gym.

Now you can put on virtual headsets and probably recreate all those experiences.

Just not the same.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Suemerica

We live in a country where everyone seems to sue everyone else.

Of course that's not really true, its just that many lawsuits are so high profile.

Its such a part of our culture that we have a number of TV shows that show people suing each other.

I admit it can be entertaining, if also a bit ridiculous.

If you happen to be involved in an incident that gets publicized you will be, generally, approached by lawyers wanting to represent you.

Some of the lawsuits or threats are more for public relations than anything else.  Others serve as backdoors to try to litigate "crimes" past the statute of limitations.

The GOP candidate for the senate just said he is contemplating suing his accusers for defamation.  Can't imagine that actually happen, mostly because they are probably telling the truth, but he needs to act like they aren't to sway some voters in the campaign.

It might work.

I'm sure there will be a ton of law suits related to all the unproven sexual harassment claims that are coming out of the woodwork.  Certainly a lot of the allegations are true but because of the statute of limitations few are going to result in criminal charges.

I read that people who survived the shooting in Las Vegas are filing suits against the hotel, although as bad as it was, it really seems to be the fault of a single lunatic.

Guess the hotel should have noticed all those rifles.

However, filing a law suit is one of the most American things we can do, so it was almost inevitable.

Protect Freedom

The one thing a government needs to do is to protect its citizens from all threats, foreign and domestic.

This is enshrined in our constitution and in the oaths of office.

It is clear then that if a foreign power is trying to subvert our republic, every government official, including the president is oath bound to defend us.

So since we have conclusive evidence of such behavior we should have pretty universal condemnation and action to prevent and stop it.

It's not universal.

When you look at the history of colonization, you find a tactic that was used in many parts of the world with a lot of success.

You find a faction that is not quite strong enough to seize power and you help them in return for certain commitments.  This makes them to some extent your puppet and as your exclusive rights grow and your influence increases, the government becomes more and more dependent on your support to continue.

It is something that works for the puppet rulers and the colonial power, but not so much for the inhabitants who are deprived of economic and political freedom over time.

This attack on our freedoms is what is dangerous and it is being attacked by both foreign and domestic sources.  Business is often more interested in a puppet regime, it is simply easier to deal with, or bribe.

The people need to be aware of the danger and demand that our elected officials honor their pledge of office, or replace them.

Wake Up America

It seems like the dotard didn't mean it when he reversed an Obama policy on elephant trophies.  I'm sure he is willing to reverse any policy his predecessor signed without thinking or reading it, but in this case it annoyed people almost everywhere who weren't going to Africa to collect elephant ears.

He clearly isn't heavy into doing research and in his past careers he didn't need to be.  

Real estate like many other things is a situation where you want to buy low and sell high.

Buying into Manhattan when it was having hard times might have seemed risky but was as close to a sure thing as there is, if you have enough resources to hold long enough.

In that case it wasn't even that long as the city rebounded.  However, its not like he's great at this, he did mange to have multiple business bankruptcies and to a certain extent his brand and fortune were saved by having a successful reality show.

The dotard has turned his name into a brand and it does allow him to profit to some extent.

The attributes he had in those days haven't changed.  He was a bit of a playboy around town but managed to get his name associated with more attractive women than he ever dated.

He used to manipulate page 6 the way he uses twitter today, to keep his name in the news.

There are many much richer people in New York who manage hedge funds who you never hear of because they don't parade around and they work long hours.

In some ways, his only real career was being a celebrity and it still is.

Its sad that he was able to appeal to enough deplorables to capture the republican party and I do think that the rise of the Steve Bannon's will lead to a republican party that drives out any moderates.

The question is clearly at what point do the non-deplorables wake up?

Some already have.

Women and Men

Interactions between men and women have been going on since there have been men and women.  Its demonstrated by the fact that we are still here as a species.

I don't know though if at any time the two groups actually understood each other.

It's been something that has been written about since ancient times although because of the nature of those times most of the writings relate to how women are incomprehensible to men.

It doesn't seem like that should be the case, but it pretty much is.

To some extent no one knows what anyone else is actually thinking, but with other men I feel fairly confident that I have an idea.

This is largely because they react in fairly predictable ways, at least to me.

Women on the other hand tend to be simply unpredictable.

I don't know if women have the same issue, it seems like they understand men better than men understand women, but maybe they don't.

Somehow the two groups have managed to procreate, and rather profusely.

However this is the area that seems to be the most perplexing.

I remember a skit by Jerry Seinfeld in which he posits the question as to why men resort to honking or calling out to pretty strangers and he answers his own question with because that's the best we have come up with.  While a joke it comes close to the truth.

Some of the things coming out are clearly wrong, others not so much, at least to my view, which is a male one.

The problem is that many of these accusations include the fact that a person in power in some ways imposed their will on another person.  Some of these accusations are based on obvious measurable things but some are based on people's perceptions.

The "me too" movement has uncovered that a majority of American women have felt harassed or abused at least once in their lifetimes.  Maybe that honking and calling out has gone too far.

However, we don't have anything better.  It's perplexing.

Sunrise

I was driving from Virginia to New York last night and I like to do it when there is no traffic so I left about 3 AM.

Clearly that's the middle of the night and the sky is simply dark.

For some reason, I think in Delaware I noticed the first change in the east from dark to, well, not dark.

It was just a hint of the sunrise to come and I've driven this same route many times around the same time and I know the sun is going to rise, but something about the first glimmer of the day just attracted me.

Of course I was still driving so I couldn't stare at it, but in Southern Jersey I noticed it again, more not dark, but not quite light.

Its a natural thing and as I drove up the East Coast for the next hour I sort of tracked the progress of the sunrise.

The sky in the east was blue around the Penn Turnpike exit and by Elizabeth the whole sky was bright.

I finally saw the sun in Staten Island, and since I was driving almost directly into it, it was blinding and causing traffic to slow.

Oddly the man on the radio commented how it was a beautiful sunrise today and I must say until the sun blinded me it was.

No real point to any of this, just how I passed time on the New Jersey Turnpike and appreciated a thing that happens every day.

Until it tried to blind me.

Paying their Debt

The monkey house passed a "tax reform" bill that manages to pay their owners significant amounts by taking it from the rest of us either now or in the future.

The argument that this is going to be good for the economy is so shaky that I find it hard to believe any of them believe it, but being monkeys they might.

Now attention turns to the Senate where we will see if they can pass something that enables the two bills to go to conference.

I realize that we have seen the wealthy take over the Government via money and they have gotten people elected who are only concerned about keeping the donations flowing.

I would have thought that the American people would realize what was happening, but when you realize all the news most people absorb has to be in short soundbites or headlines, it is too easy to convince enough of the uninformed to vote for a monkey.

We will get you a good paying job, although you have no skills and just a rudimentary education.

We guarantee your children will be no more educated than you are by privatizing our schools and letting our donors make money for not educating them.

In fact we will make sure the people who donate to us can privatize more and more things so that a hefty percentage of the taxes get to them so they can donate some to us.

You live in a state where they supply public services?  Well stop indirectly subsidizing you socialists by double taxing you.

It doesn't matter to us as long as we get enough donations to run TV ads telling you we are going to make your life better, but have a gun.

You are addicted to opioids?  Well we are defunding programs that could help you but just vote for us and we will take care of you.

We are gong to strip your pension and disability benefits but you can buy a gun.

It's the best retirement plan we can think of.

America's Greatness

The phrase "Make America Great Again" implies of course that America went from great to, I guess, less than great.

America being great is something which might need some discussion, what qualifies as great and how would we achieve it.

We clearly are the greatest military power in the world and that hasn't changed, although it comes at a pretty great price.

We don't match many countries in social programs and I don't think the current people in office are trying to.

Many of our citizens face discrimination and people are often condemned for their sexual preferences.

Recently we see that sexual harassment is pervasive and it think we are seeing the tip of the iceberg on that so far.

We have the world's biggest economy and in general the lifestyles of most Americans exceed most of the world, although not all of it.

Our health care is great for people with money and a little below average for most others, although costly.

What also needs to be discussed is when was this greatness that we aspire to recapture?

It seems like it is focused on the period after World War 2 when our major competitors were facing significant devastation to their infrastructures or Communist regimes that stifled economic improvement.  you want to recreate that period, which did include significant fear of a nuclear holocaust you would have to bomb a lot of major cities.

No, in most ways, the challenges facing America have been in existence for the whole time and while we did cover them up a little better in the past, that isn't really better. 

America was great for most of its history because it was the land of opportunity where people, oppressed or impoverished in their home countries could come and start anew.  This greatness was recognized around the world and it was what made us a shining example, everyone could come here and provide their families better opportunities than anywhere else.

So those talking about making America great again, who also want to build a wall really just don't get it.

Not even close.

Dream on

It is pretty simple.  Those who have wealth and power like it and generally want more.

Those who don't would like to be part of that group.

Most of us never will but the idea that we might is a great motivator for many.

Its one of the reasons so many Americans will support things that do them absolutely no good.

They are betting on winning.

Everyone knows that most people are going to live ordinary lives, but each person thinks he or she is the exception. 

We start telling children very early on that they can be anything, even though in most cases they can't.

The myth is perpetuated by the fact that the very few who succeed tend to relate those stories and write memoirs.  The very many who fail don't.

So yes, maybe the odds are one in a million, but why can't you be the one?

Winners and Losers

Everybody tends to complain about taxes and of course that is going to continue no matter what comes out of the monkey house.

The complaints that got this ball rolling though really seem to come down to two that bother business and wealthy people.

The business tax is too high.

The Government imposes an estate tax on large estates.

The other things in the tax discussion, number of brackets, too many complex deductions etc. simply serve as smokescreens to cover up the fact that tax "reform" is designed to help business and allow the wealthy to keep their money in the family.

Neither of those objectives are particularly bad and if the tax rate is in fact suppressing business we probably should adjust it, although the evidence for this is slim.

Similarly, passing on your estate to your heirs isn't a bad thing, although it could be argued that years ago the top tax rate was lowered with the understanding the estate tax would collect at the end.

However, for every dollar given back to business or the wealthy, it has to come from one of two places, increased taxes for others or an increase in the debt.

This therefore creates a big pool of potential losers, but a plan that simply gives money to those that don't need it and takes it away from those who do is simply not going to pass, so it had to be additionally complicated so the losers are not as obvious.

Of course the $1.5 trillion increase in borrowing made this easier, but that money has to be paid by future people, unless of course we simply default.  Its like refinancing your house to pay current bills or to buy a car, it sort of works on a short term basis but leaves you owning less of your house.  If the house value just keeps rising it works OK, but watch out for a financial crisis.

Similarly increasing the deficit is potentially painless if the economy grows enough to generate more tax revenue to pay it off in the future.  That's very unlikely although it is the smoke and mirror the monkey house is relying on.

That is still not enough so you have to make other citizens pay more, over time to cover the difference and keep within the budget guidelines.

The shifts are complex and some Americans think they are getting a reduction (for the first few years) and others will pay more immediately.  Most will pay more over time but as I said, the smoke and mirrors took a lot of time to put together so its almost as complex as what we already had.

Homeowners, people in states with income taxes or high property taxes or people with high medical bills are losers right off the bat.

The retirement savings is an attractive target, take away money from middle class savers so wealthy people can leave more to their heirs.

I guess we know who the winners are.

Lets hope Abe was right

A lot of the issues we tend to get excited about don't impact most of us very directly.

Generally we get up we go to work or engage in various activities regardless of the latest items being debated.  Of course the ultimate outcome may have a significant impact on our lives but it also may not.

In fact for most of us the less the Government is involved the better.  We want Government to be like a referee or umpire who enforces the rules but is barely noticed.

What the rules are is of course important and we want the rules to be fair and evenly applied.

However many of our politicians have clearly traded their integrity for political donations and support and have to take care of the people who bought them.

Ultimately they still have to get votes and depend on most people being susceptible to sound bites and misleading headlines.

This techniques which is not new found new power as we saw the rise of social media and web sites the pretended to report news but really were just propaganda outlets.

It has led us to the point we are at now, where we see a lot of smoke obscuring the truth.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion but it helps if the opinion is based on factual information, not propaganda.

The good news is that you can't keep reporting things that don't match reality for very long.

Abe Lincoln famously said that you can't fool all of the people all of the time. 

Lets hope he was right.

Life is Hard but Worth It

I've come to the conclusion, possibly erroneously, that we are not making it clear to our children and grandchildren how hard life actually is.

When I was growing up my parents had lived through the great depression and World War 2 and they had no illusions about how life was a struggle and this got communicated to me and my compatriots in many ways.

Of course we had it a lot easier than they did, although of course we had Vietnam which for many was devastating and individuals had their trials but all in all the years I grew up in were just easier and different than the past.

We also had TV which, more than radio, showed you a rosy view of the world and how all problems got solved.  You had families that seemed too perfect to be true (they were) and everyone was good looking, well dressed and in a mere 30 minutes to an hour less commercials, the situations got resolved.

Of course for many of us life wasn't like T.V. but we all wanted it to be like that and disregarding the fact that bad things did happen to some people, we were able as a generation to celebrate the sexual revolution, the age of Aquarius, the overall success of the economy and the abundance of good paying jobs.

We had been taught by the prior generation that things could be hard, but most of the time they weren't and when they did go bad we had identity crises.

The ideas and values we passed along were very different than the ones we were raised with and the new reality was reinforced by technology which was explosive in development and usage.

Our children weren't sent out to play, they went on play dates, carefully arranged to be with the right people.

They didn't play pick up games, they engaged in organized sports supervised and watched.

We started awarding people for participation instead of winning and while at some point winning was rewarded, losing wasn't your fault anymore.

The list goes on and on and of course there are exceptions but the world the latter generations grew up in was presented as less dangerous and more reliable.

It wasn't though, its still hard and so when things like the financial crisis or tech bust came along, the reaction of many wasn't to get up and work harder, it was to look for someone to blame.

Others looked for someone who promised to fix it.

I have a lot of faith in humanity and ultimately people will rise to the occasion, they always have.  I'm a afraid though we did many a disservice and because of that they might have to deal with harder times than they should have.

Don't give up.  It might seem harder than it looked (it is) but life is a glorious thing and when you finally do what you need to do to get past your troubles, it will all be worth it.

It really will because in the end life is actually all about participation so participate.